Bitcoin Resilient at $64.7K After Hawkish Fed — Sellers Thin, Buyers Still AWOL
Headline: Bitcoin weathers hawkish Fed tilt — sellers thin, buyers still AWOL, analysts say Bitcoin traded around $64,700 on Monday (up 0.8% on the day), but remains about 13% lower over the past month and roughly 50% below its October peak of $126,080, per CoinGecko. The market’s muted reaction to a visibly hawkish debut from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has left analysts describing the situation as resilience without renewed demand. Why the market looked “resilient” - CoinShares’ head of research James Butterfill said crypto was “more resilient than anticipated” when Warsh signalled a tougher stance. Bitcoin’s one-day drop of about 1.6% compared with a 1.2% slide in the S&P 500 and 1.3% in the Nasdaq. - Butterfill tempered that praise, calling the move “not strong price action in absolute terms” but firmer than many expected. He noted that higher real-rate expectations remain a headwind for liquidity-sensitive assets, yet persistent inflation, policy uncertainty and a more reactive Fed have reinforced Bitcoin’s structural case as an alternative monetary asset. Sellers thinning, buyers not yet back - HashKey senior researcher Tim Sun said the small post-Fed dip looks like exhaustion of selling pressure rather than a return of buyers. For a sustained rally, Sun argues two conditions must align: renewed risk appetite and help from long-end Treasury yields. He sees Bitcoin reverting to a “macro liquidity” trading framework where ETF flows, oil and long-end yields matter most. Flows and derivatives paint a range-bound picture - Dean Chen of Bitunix called the price action less a trend than a standoff. U.S. ETF flows still point to distribution — roughly $90.7 million of outflows on June 18 and about $4 billion over the past month — though the weekly pace has cooled to a few hundred million, per SoSoValue. - Chen highlighted a derivatives “liquidation map” skewed to the downside: roughly $1.3 billion in potential long liquidations clustered near $61,900 versus about $870 million in short liquidations near $64,800. That Bitcoin hasn’t plunged into the long-liquidation zone, he said, signals a stabilising force absorbing volatility and suggests “smart money” is positioned neutrally in a range-driven redistribution phase. - CoinShares also flagged that digital asset ETP outflows across issuers slowed to about $149 million, indicating some easing in redemptions. Macro and regulatory catalysts still weeks away - Algoz’s Stephen Wundke warned key catalysts may be a few weeks off: a U.S. Clarity Act vote targeted for July 4 is a potential market mover (a miss could push the bill into Q4), and U.S. inflation is expected to cool only after a lag following the Iran truce. - He also pointed out a dramatic flip in ETF demand: more than $20 billion of inflows in 2025 have turned into $3.2 billion of outflows so far in 2026, with Bitcoin down about 26% year-to-date and a basket of major tokens off nearly 50%. “This may well be a bottom,” Wundke said, “but we might just be bouncing on it for a little while yet.” On-chain behaviour: holders prefer leverage to exits - Chainflip’s marketing lead Peter Smedas noted that over the past 90 days Bitcoin was the protocol’s top swap destination with $239 million in volume. He and others said holders are increasingly borrowing against BTC rather than selling it — conference chatter at BTC Prague reportedly echoed the message: users want liquidity against their coins, not exits. Near-term risk: a big options expiry and bearish sentiment - A $10.9 billion Bitcoin options expiry this Friday is a notable near-term test that could jolt a market still searching for direction. - Prediction-market activity on Myriad (owned by Decrypt’s parent Dastan) has skewed bearish: traders now put a roughly 70% chance of Bitcoin dropping to $55,000, up about 5 percentage points from the prior week. Bottom line The current setup feels like a tug-of-war: selling pressure has faded and volatility is being absorbed, but the return of risk-on demand — and a cooperative move lower in long-term yields — looks necessary to turn short-term strength into a sustained rally. In the meantime, flows, derivatives expiries and a handful of macro and regulatory milestones will likely dictate whether Bitcoin escapes the range or keeps chopping. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news
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