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Gold Has Stabbed Everyone in the Back

The price of gold has experienced a severe decline, dropping over 27% from its all-time high of $5,600 to around $4,100, marking its worst performance since 1983. This contradicts the conventional wisdom that gold acts as a safe-haven asset during crises, such as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has driven oil prices above $100 and closed the Strait of Hormuz. Analysis reveals that gold's behavior over the past three years has resembled that of a risk asset, not a hedge. It moved inversely to inflation and correlated strongly with U.S. stocks, challenging traditional narratives. While central bank purchases provided a foundation, the surge was fueled by speculative institutional investors using leveraged derivatives, where paper gold claims vastly outnumbered physical supply. This created a bubble vulnerable to liquidation. The recent crash was triggered by expectations that persistent inflation and high oil prices would delay Fed rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and reducing gold's appeal. Leveraged positions were forced to unwind, sparking a downward spiral similar to the March 2020 liquidity crisis. The future remains uncertain. If the war continues and stagflation sets in, gold could rebound as in the 1979 oil crisis. Alternatively, further deleveraging may push prices lower. Regardless, the episode underscores that no asset is immune to liquidity demands during panics, and gold's role is now at a critical crossroads.

比推Hace 12 hora(s)

Gold Has Stabbed Everyone in the Back

比推Hace 12 hora(s)

Middle East Conflict Rekindles Rate Hike Expectations, Gold Suffers Worst Sell-off in 43 Years

Gold suffered its worst weekly decline in 43 years, with spot prices falling for eight consecutive sessions—the longest losing streak since October 2023. Silver also plunged over 15%, while platinum and palladium followed lower. The sell-off was triggered by escalating Middle East conflicts, which drove up oil prices and reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes rather than cuts. Market bets on a Fed hike by October rose to 50%, reducing the appeal of non-yielding gold amid higher real rate prospects. Technical indicators worsened, with RSI falling below 30, triggering stop-losses and self-reinforcing selling. Gold ETFs saw outflows for three straight weeks, losing over 60 tons. The situation echoes the 1983 crash when OPEC nations sold gold reserves to raise cash amid an oil price collapse. Despite a 4% year-to-date gain, macro conditions have deteriorated. Rising energy prices may reduce global GDP by 0.3% and lift inflation by 0.5-0.6%, increasing stagflation risks. Gold’s future trajectory hinges on real rates and geopolitical developments—further rate hike expectations could sustain pressure, while any de-escalation may revive safe-haven demand.

marsbitHace 23 hora(s)

Middle East Conflict Rekindles Rate Hike Expectations, Gold Suffers Worst Sell-off in 43 Years

marsbitHace 23 hora(s)

How to View the Divergence Between Gold and Oil Prices?

The article analyzes the divergence between gold and oil prices following the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war. While oil prices surged significantly, gold experienced a decline, contrary to expectations given its traditional role as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises. Gold serves three primary hedging functions: against geopolitical risk, inflation risk, and U.S. dollar risk. Since late 2023, gold had been in a strong bull market, rising from $1,800 to over $5,000, driven by simultaneous geopolitical tensions (e.g., Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts), inflationary pressures, and a weakening dollar due to the Fed's premature rate cuts. However, after the U.S. "decapitation" strike on Iran, gold prices fell sharply. This was attributed to two main factors: a shift of capital from gold to oil, as investors repositioned portfolios to capitalize on rising oil prices, and a liquidity crisis in U.S. financial markets that forced large-scale sell-offs of gold—a highly liquid asset—to meet redemption demands. More critically, growing pessimism about a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict raised fears of sustained high oil prices, potential global economic disruption, and a possible reversal of Fed monetary policy (delayed cuts or even renewed hikes). This expectation of tighter policy caused gold’s dollar-related hedging function to reverse, overwhelming its geopolitical and inflation hedging roles and leading to a severe correction. Oil prices also experienced volatility. They initially spiked to nearly $120 per barrel post-strike, then fell by 30% on Trump’s hints of a quick resolution, but rebounded as market expectations corrected when the conflict persisted and the Strait of Hormuz remained threatened. The outlook for both commodities depends on the evolution of the U.S.-Iran conflict. If it becomes a prolonged war like Ukraine, gold may lack short-term value as monetary fears prevail, while oil and energy assets may benefit. A critical factor will be whether the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, which hinges on geopolitical decisions ahead.

marsbitAyer 02:20

How to View the Divergence Between Gold and Oil Prices?

marsbitAyer 02:20

Gold breaks KEY support with 3.7% drop – Will crypto face pressure next?

The latest inflation report, with February's hotter-than-expected PPI, triggered a 3.7% drop in gold, breaking key support. This sell-off is attributed to a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields, making traditional safe havens more attractive. Historically, a stronger DXY negatively impacts risk assets like crypto. Bitcoin is currently stagnant near $70k with negative funding rates and declining capital inflows, indicating a bearish bias. The falling Coinbase Premium Index and increased short positions suggest a crypto downturn may already be priced in, especially given macro pressures and the historical inverse correlation between DXY and BTC.

ambcryptoHace 2 días 05:19

Gold breaks KEY support with 3.7% drop – Will crypto face pressure next?

ambcryptoHace 2 días 05:19

Here’s Why The Bitcoin Price Fell Below The $70,000 Level Again

The Bitcoin price fell below the critical $70,000 support level due to a sharp market pullback triggered by the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain current interest rates. This reinforced a "higher for longer" monetary policy stance, extending the expected timeline for rate cuts to 2026. High interest rates make money more expensive, reducing investment in risky assets like cryptocurrencies. The drop erased the week's gains as BTC fell 3% from $72,400 to under $70,000 shortly after the announcement. Despite the bearish sentiment, data shows a 3.9% increase in large whale addresses holding 100+ BTC over the past three months, indicating continued institutional confidence. Macro events, including upcoming Fed meetings, CPI and PCE data, and geopolitical tensions, will continue to influence Bitcoin's price trajectory.

bitcoinistHace 2 días 04:02

Here’s Why The Bitcoin Price Fell Below The $70,000 Level Again

bitcoinistHace 2 días 04:02

Dialogue with Fundstrat Research Director: After Accurately Predicting the Plunge, Bitcoin's $115,000 Target Remains Unchanged, Hyperliquid Aims for $100

In a recent interview, Fundstrat's Head of Crypto Research Sean Farrell maintains a cautious short-term outlook on crypto markets despite his unchanged long-term Bitcoin target of $115,000 by year-end. He accurately predicted the February crash, citing extreme positioning, miner selling, and low cash reserves. Farrell describes the current environment as a "trader's market," advising caution and holding dry powder. He highlights risks from private credit stress, potential lack of follow-through buying after large institutional purchases (like MicroStrategy's), and geopolitical uncertainty. Farrell remains highly bullish on Hyperliquid (HYPE), with a $100 price target. He notes its low 90-day correlation (0.4) to Bitcoin and its massive growth in perpetual futures volume for assets like gold and oil, seeing it as a key portfolio diversifier. Key catalysts for a more bullish stance would be a market capitulation event, a break above key moving averages, or positive regulatory developments, though the Clarity Act's passage faces significant banking lobby opposition. For the upcoming Fed meeting, he advises watching for any shift in the dot plot pushing rate cuts to 2027, which would negatively impact risk assets.

marsbit03/20 05:19

Dialogue with Fundstrat Research Director: After Accurately Predicting the Plunge, Bitcoin's $115,000 Target Remains Unchanged, Hyperliquid Aims for $100

marsbit03/20 05:19

Crypto could rally in Q2: But tensions rise, as do real-world risks

Based on historical trends, there is potential for a bullish Q2 in the crypto market, as seen in 2025 when the total market cap surged 23.4% and Bitcoin gained 30% following a Q1 correction. This year's 20% Q1 drop has already been exceeded, indicating the market's ability to rebound quickly. However, currently down 18%, faces rising real-world risks. Geopolitical tensions, such as the West Asia crisis, and hotter-than-expected inflation data have triggered risk-off sentiment, causing significant sell-offs. Additionally, political uncertainty, including a high probability of a U.S. presidential impeachment, reflects broader economic weaknesses. These macro factors are increasingly influencing crypto, making a strong Q2 rally far less certain than before.

ambcrypto03/20 02:02

Crypto could rally in Q2: But tensions rise, as do real-world risks

ambcrypto03/20 02:02

Crypto market extends losses as Bitcoin struggles below $70K after Fed-driven sell-off

The crypto market extended losses on 19 March, with total market capitalization declining 1.70% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin fell 2.9% and struggled to hold above the key $70,000 level, trading near $69,254. Other major cryptocurrencies also declined, including Ethereum (-3.2%), XRP (-1.0%), Solana (-1.5%), and BNB (-1.7%). The sell-off was driven by the Federal Reserve's signal that persistent inflation risks may delay interest rate cuts, leading to tighter liquidity and reduced risk appetite. While the pace of decline has slowed, indicating potential consolidation, Bitcoin's failure to reclaim $70,000 and its pattern of lower highs suggest a short-term downtrend remains intact. A sustained move below this level could reinforce bearish momentum and keep market sentiment fragile.

ambcrypto03/19 15:58

Crypto market extends losses as Bitcoin struggles below $70K after Fed-driven sell-off

ambcrypto03/19 15:58

Bitcoin Bear Market ‘Lines Up’ With 2022, Analyst Warns Of Next Stop At $45,000 And $35,000

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market experienced significant declines, with BTC dropping roughly 5% to around $71,240. Analyst Crypto Con warns that the current downturn may mirror the 2022 bear market, with potential further retracements toward $45,000 or even $35,000, citing historical cycle patterns and technical indicators. The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates and its updated inflation forecast contributed to a cautious market tone. Expert Kyle Chassé emphasized that Bitcoin’s near-term direction depends on the Fed’s interpretation of recent oil price shocks and key technical levels: holding $70,000 is critical, while a break could lead to a test of $67,000. Institutional ETF flows and low volatility also signal potential renewed market movement.

bitcoinist03/19 10:51

Bitcoin Bear Market ‘Lines Up’ With 2022, Analyst Warns Of Next Stop At $45,000 And $35,000

bitcoinist03/19 10:51

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