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Bets on Polymarket for the appearance of a strategic U.S. crypto reserve in 2025 have fallen by 98% from their maximum. In March, after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to create a national bitcoin reserve, the probability of this event reached 77%, but today it has dropped to 1%.
The creation of a crypto reserve in the U.S. was one of Trump's pre-election promises, and market participants' attention was focused on it throughout the year. At the time of the creation of the prediction market "National Bitcoin Reserve in the U.S. in 2025?" in January, the probability of this event was estimated by traders at 41%.
Prediction markets in cryptocurrencies are platforms where people can bet on the outcome of future events using cryptocurrency. By buying a binary answer "yes" or "no," participants determine the market's assessment of the probability of an event occurring. For example, a "yes" token price of $0.20 with a "no" token at $0.80 corresponds to a 20% probability.
In March, after Trump signed the order and the U.S. Congress gathered to enshrine this order into law, optimism among Polymarket users grew to a maximum. According to their estimates, the chance of creating a reserve that year was then about 77%. That is, the tokenized "yes" bet could be bought or sold for $0.77 in cryptocurrency.
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On April 5, an audit of federal agencies' cryptoassets, which were supposed to form the basis of the reserve, was scheduled in the U.S. In early fall, it became known that the audit had not yet been conducted.
By December 8, the volume of bets on the forecast for the crypto reserve reached $5.15 million. The chances of its creation this year are now estimated at 1% — the "yes" token costs only $0.01. It has fallen by 98% from its March maximum. A month ago, parallel bets "U.S. National Bitcoin Reserve by 2027?" were launched, but the volumes of this market are still minimal.
The success of Polymarket — the largest prediction platform by betting volume — in 2025 led to the emergence of many similar services. This market recorded an absolute maximum in transaction volume of $8.3 billion in November. The flagships of the market are already penetrating the information field: Kalshi data will be used by CNN, and Polymarket information is broadcast on Bloomberg.
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Related Questions
QWhat is the current probability of the US creating a strategic crypto reserve in 2025, according to Polymarket?
AThe current probability has dropped to 1%.
QWhat was the peak probability of the US creating a Bitcoin reserve in 2025 after Donald Trump signed the executive order?
AThe probability reached a peak of 77% in March.
QWhat is a prediction market, as described in the article?
AA prediction market is a platform where people can bet on the outcome of future events using cryptocurrency, with the token prices reflecting the market's assessment of the event's probability.
QBy what percentage did the odds on the creation of a US crypto reserve fall from their maximum?
AThe odds fell by 98% from their maximum.
QWhat was the original deadline for the audit of crypto assets that were supposed to form the basis of the reserve?
AThe audit was originally scheduled for April 5th.
