Hold Bitcoin Mid-Term Short Positions, HYPE Successfully Rides the Wave for Profits | Guest Analysis
Summary: In this market analysis, Cody, a特邀分析师 for Odaily, reviews the past week's performance and outlines strategies.
Bitcoin (BTC) continued its weak consolidation, aligning with the anticipated C-2 wave rebound. A short-term bearish trade (1x leverage) was executed, yielding a 2.12% profit. The medium-term bearish position, initiated at $89,000 (1x leverage), remains open. With BTC closing around $65,770, this position shows an unrealized gain of approximately 26.10%, having reached a maximum floating profit of around 32.58%. The overall technical structure suggests the medium-term downtrend persists, with any rebounds viewed as technical corrections within a larger bearish framework. Key resistance levels are identified at $68,500-$70,000 and $72,300-$74,500, with supports at $65,000, $60,000-$62,500, and $57,400. The strategy advises maintaining a core bearish bias ("sell the rallies").
Conversely, HYPE presented a strong bullish opportunity. Analysis indicates a completed Wave-I rise (from $20.46 to $38.41) followed by a Wave-II correction (to $25.60). The current movement is interpreted as the start of a potent Wave-III drive. A successful short-term long trade (1x leverage) captured an 11.14% gain. Key technical evidence for HYPE's strength includes a break of a long-term descending trendline, robust momentum off the Wave-II low, and quant model signals (momentum and price spread) indicating bottoming and bullish convergence. The primary target for Wave-III is above the Wave-I peak of $38.41.
The recommended strategy for the coming week is to hold the 60% medium-term BTC short position (reducing to 40% if price breaks above $74,500) and use 30% capital for short-term, stop-loss-protected "spread" trades based on support/resistance levels, favoring shorting BTC on rallies. Strict dynamic stop-loss management is emphasized for all positions.
marsbit03/02 08:19
