The privacy-token narrative that once fueled rallies across assets like Monero and Zcash [ZEC] continued to weaken as investor focus shifted elsewhere.
Fragile broader market sentiment added pressure, accelerating losses across the privacy-focused segment.
Monero remained at the center of that decline.
Over the past 24 hours, XMR dropped by roughly 12%, leading to losses within the sector and reinforcing bearish momentum.
Market conditions suggested downside risks remained elevated. Price structure, Derivatives positioning, and sentiment aligned toward continued weakness before any recovery attempt.
Is a five-month low approaching?
The daily chart pointed to a deeper structural breakdown with implications beyond a short-term pullback.
XMR previously respected a rising ascending support line that repeatedly acted as a launchpad for upside moves.
That structure eventually supported the rally toward the $800 peak. The trendline has now failed.
That breach marked a clear shift in trend dynamics. Price behavior resembled a sustained corrective phase rather than a temporary consolidation.
Based on prior reactions, Monero [XMR] could retrace toward the base of that structure near $266. Such a move would imply a decline of roughly 32% from recent levels.
Bearish pressure builds, but not without limits
Liquidity signals continued to favor bears. Capital outflows remained visible, reinforcing expectations of ongoing price pressure.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) fell to around 26, a level typically linked to persistent capital exits. More importantly, the indicator continued trending lower, suggesting selling pressure had not stabilized.
Even so, volatility-based indicators introduced nuance. Bollinger Bands highlighted price zones where reactions often emerge.
XMR traded near the lower Bollinger Band, a level that historically acted as a short-term response area. A bounce here could allow price to recover toward the mid-band near $519, with an extended move toward $687.
Until confirmation emerged, sellers retained control and downside risks dominated near-term action.
Exchange data adds nuance to the sell-off
Having said that, perpetual market data painted a more layered picture beneath spot weakness.
The Long/Short Ratio remained skewed toward long positions, while the OI-Weighted Funding Rate showed longs paying funding. That setup indicated traders continued positioning for upside despite declining prices.
More importantly, Open Interest dropped sharply to $141.15 million over the past day.
Only $1.87 million of that decline came from liquidations, pointing instead to panic-driven position closures.
That distinction mattered. It suggested that selling intensity may be fading, raising the probability of a temporary bottom forming near the lower Bollinger Band.
From there, XMR could attempt a short-term recovery and test the previously broken ascending support.
Final Thoughts
- XMR lost its long-held ascending support after a sharp sell-off, extending losses by roughly 12% in 24 hours.
- Monero’s Open Interest fell to $141.15M, but only $1.87M came from liquidations, suggesting panic exits rather than forced selling.
