CITIC Securities: Joint US-Japan FX Intervention Aimed at Preventing Risk Spillover from Persistent Yen Depreciation
08/09 11:00
CITIC Securities released a research report stating that the joint US-Japan intervention in the foreign exchange market is aimed at preventing risk spillover caused by the continued depreciation of the yen. Japan's main dilemma lies in the fact that its domestic inflation continues to remain below the Bank of Japan's target level, leaving limited willingness to raise interest rates in monetary policy. Meanwhile, the Takaichi cabinet's tax cut plan may further widen Japan's fiscal gap, undermining investor confidence in yen assets. The US, on the other hand, is concerned that Japan might reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds to stabilize the exchange rate, which could further push up long-end rates against the backdrop of sustained high supply of US debt. Overall, short-term intervention in the foreign exchange market by the US and Japan helps stabilize market expectations, but given that the interest rate differential between the two countries remains elevated, the space for a sustained significant appreciation of the yen is limited. Compared with the Japanese stock market, US stocks still have more notable advantages in terms of earnings growth, industry structure, and the AI supply chain.
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