Waller: Inflation Risks Now Exceed Employment Risks, Market Focuses on July CPI

On July 7, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the U.S. labor market has stabilized, while inflation is accelerating again. Currently, inflation risks have surpassed employment risks, marking a complete reversal from policy considerations a year ago. He pointed out that last year, rate cuts were supported due to a weak labor market, but now the policy focus should shift back to curbing inflation. The market is currently turning its attention to the June CPI, which will be released on July 14, as it is the last key inflation data before the Federal Reserve meeting on July 28-29. Despite international oil prices falling to around $70 per barrel, Fed officials still expect inflation to be significantly above the 2% target by the end of the year. The market anticipates that the Fed will raise interest rates by September at the latest, with a roughly 25% probability of a rate hike in July, as several officials have signaled further tightening of policies.