Mr.Arshman

07/06 11:08

Is Cardano’s price rally over? Here’s why ADA coul

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Every sharp parabolic rally can easily be written off as another hype cycle. At first glance, Cardano [$ADA] seems to fit that narrative. After three consecutive red quarters, each posting average losses of more than 40%, $ADA had become one of the weakest-performing major altcoins this cycle. But is that trend finally starting to reverse? From the technical standpoint, $ADA has kicked off Q3 with a strong 30% rally, outperforming the broader altcoin market. More notably, its gains are over 2.3x larger than Ethereum’s [ETH] so far this quarter, suggesting that capital may be rotating back into $ADA as momentum begins to build. But zooming into the charts, things start looking a bit different. On the daily timeframe, $ADA has already pulled back more than 2% in under 48 hours after pushing above the $0.20 level, a resistance it also failed to clear back in mid-June. That repeated rejection keeps a breakdown firmly in play. Pair that with a near-parabolic run over the past week, and it’s not surprising to see traders taking profits instead of chasing higher prices. At first glance, that makes it easy to label $ADA’s rally as just another hype cycle. The fundamentals don’t help that case either. Cardano’s total value locked (TVL) has dropped nearly 68% over the past year. According to DefiLlama, TVL has fallen from $276.19 million to around $89.16 million today, a sharp decline that suggests on-chain liquidity has yet to catch up with the recent price action. Taken together, the charts and on-chain data make $ADA’s recent 2% pullback look like the start of a deeper correction. But markets are all about timing. And right now, the timing suggests FOMO is still in play. Cardano’s strong start to Q3 could be the first sign that momentum is finally shifting back in $ADA’s favor. The technicals, however, still have one job to do:

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