US-Iran Agreement Includes Oil Sanction Exemptions, 68 Million Barrels of Stalled Crude Awaiting Rel

On June 17, as the countdown to the signing of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding began, signals indicating the unblocking of Iranian crude oil exports were continuously released. According to Bloomberg's shipping tracking data, four Iranian-affiliated tankers recently reactivated their positioning transponders and actively sailed out of the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. This includes two very large crude carriers (VLCCs) with a single voyage capacity of 2 million barrels each, as well as two product tankers that successfully traversed the Strait of Hormuz. On the same day, shipping data agency TankerTrackers.com disclosed that at least three tankers that had previously docked at Chabahar Port have departed their berths. Iranian tankers have long evaded sanctions tracking by shutting off positioning signals, faking signals, and using interference. The collective public navigation of several vessels this time has been interpreted by the market as a preliminary signal of the gradual lifting of the US maritime blockade. On the agreement front, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing sources close to the final draft of the agreement, that the US-Iran agreement will grant Iran prior exemptions from oil sanctions, allowing Iran to immediately sell crude oil abroad after the agreement is signed, without any additional transition period. Shipping analysis firm Kpler has estimated that approximately 68 million barrels of Iranian crude oil are currently stranded at sea due to US blockade, and once export channels are opened, a significant increase in supply will directly alleviate the global crude oil supply tightness and impact oil prices. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister stated through ISNA media that the US maritime blockade on Iranian ports, initiated in April this year, has entered a phased lifting stage. According to the plan from both sides, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and the US maritime ban on all Iranian shipping will be lifted simultaneously after the formal signing of the peace agreement this Friday. The US Central Command has not yet responded to related inquiries.