Middle East Situation Update: Full US-Iran Agreement to be Released Soon, WTI Oil Drops 7%

On June 17, various parties continued to signal developments regarding the US-Iran agreement, the Lebanon-Israel conflict, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated that negotiations for the US-Iran agreement have entered the second phase and that the agreement will explicitly prohibit Iran from possessing nuclear weapons, with the full text to be released soon, possibly even read aloud verbatim. On the Iranian side, the Central Headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces, Khatam al-Anbia, accused Israel of violating the Lebanese ceasefire agreement 84 times in the past two days and warned that military responses would be taken if violations continue. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard emphasized that Hezbollah has demonstrated strong capabilities in recent conflicts and will "never be destroyed." Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif stated that nuclear issues will be discussed in the final stages of negotiations, and ending the Lebanon war is a necessary condition for ending the Iranian conflict. An advisor from the Iranian Foreign Ministry reiterated that missile programs and support for regional allies are non-negotiable. On the US side, Israeli media reported that some US military refueling aircraft have begun to withdraw from Israel. Additionally, reports indicate that the US is allowing Iran to immediately resume oil exports and is secretly transporting oil from the Gulf. Trump mentioned that the US is not in a hurry to obtain Iranian nuclear materials but will destroy relevant nuclear materials at the appropriate time. US Vice President Pence emphasized that no US government funds will be provided to Iran. From Israel, the military reported successfully intercepting rockets launched from Lebanon. Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Iran will not obtain nuclear weapons, regardless of whether an agreement is reached. According to Israeli media, Israel had requested to view the contents of the US-Iran understanding memorandum but was denied. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, an Iranian deputy foreign minister stated that the US has lifted some of its blockade on Iran. US intelligence agencies believe that Iran still has the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz again. The Iranian Vice President stated that Tehran will continue to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz. In international oil markets, WTI crude oil dropped 7%, and Brent crude fell below $80 for the first time since early March. In ceasefire negotiations, Saudi media disclosed the 14-point memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, which proposes the establishment of a $300 billion private fund that does not involve government funds. The Iranian deputy foreign minister stated that Speaker Qalibaf will attend the signing ceremony of the US-Iran memorandum, and the next phase will discuss uranium enrichment, nuclear stockpiles, and Iran's nuclear needs. Additionally, Hezbollah's media liaison office revealed that Iran has committed not to sign a final nuclear agreement with the US unless Israel withdraws from Lebanon. Qalibaf stated that Israel must withdraw from Lebanon. Trump considers the Israel-Lebanon conflict to be a "small-scale war" that will not affect the progress of the Iran agreement.