Institution: Bitcoin and US Stock Market Divergence May Be Temporary

07/05 02:20

On July 5, despite the US stock market continuing to hit new highs, Bitcoin has shown relatively weak performance this year. However, asset management firms Hashdex and Charles Schwab believe that this divergence will not last long. Hashdex's Chief Investment Officer Samir Kerbage stated that current market funds are flowing more towards themes such as AI infrastructure, IPOs, and interest rate trading, rather than digital assets. This reflects a change in capital allocation rather than a deterioration in the fundamentals of the crypto industry. He pointed out that stablecoin trading volume in the first half of this year has already exceeded the total for all of 2025, the scale of tokenized real-world assets (RWA) has grown by over 60% this year, and crypto network trading activity has also reached an all-time high, with the divergence between on-chain fundamentals and market valuations reaching a historical peak. Jim Ferraioli, head of digital asset research at Charles Schwab, believes that Bitcoin's current trend still aligns with historical cycles following halving events. He noted that Bitcoin typically requires more than a year to return above the production cost of inefficient miners, which is currently around $95,000, while the market's average holding cost is about $80,000. This suggests that during the price rebound, there may continue to be selling pressure from those looking to break even. Ferraioli also mentioned that while the 'four-year halving cycle' is not an absolute rule, this pattern has profoundly influenced investor behavior. As the Bitcoin market matures, the volatility in each cycle may weaken in the future.
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