BNP Paribas: Lower Likelihood of Fed Action in July

07/03 16:55

On July 4, BNP Paribas Chief Economist Isabelle Mateos y Lago stated, "If the non-farm payroll numbers in July are very strong, close to or exceeding 130,000, then I believe the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be as high now, but in my view, the reasons for the Fed to raise interest rates still hold." Before the July 4 holiday, the short-term interest rate futures market anticipated about a 20% chance of the Fed raising rates in its July 29 decision, down from 33% before the non-farm report was released. The market still expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points this year, but the earliest increase would not occur until December. Regarding the European Central Bank, Lago noted, "The basic expectation remains that there will be another rate hike in September. However, it is worth noting that members of the Governing Council who spoke at the Sintra meeting did not rule out the possibility of not proceeding with this additional hike." She warned that normalizing energy supply may take six months or longer to take effect, and inflation in the Eurozone could accelerate again. Nevertheless, she believes that, aside from areas affected by energy, other regions' consumer prices will not face pressure.
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