Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | DingDang (@XiaMiPP)
In the eighteen years since Bitcoin's birth, the "four-year cycle" theory has almost become a foundational belief in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin halving, supply contraction, price increases, and the altcoin接力 (relay) - this narrative not only explains the historical bull and bear switches but also profoundly influences investors' portfolio management, project fundraising rhythms, and even the entire industry's understanding of "time."
However, after the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin only rose from $60,000 to a historical high of $126,000, a increase far lower than previous cycles. Altcoins were even more sluggish, while macro liquidity and policy variables became more sensitive anchors for the market. Especially with the large-scale entry of spot ETFs, institutional capital, and traditional financial instruments, one question is repeatedly discussed:
Does the four-year cycle in the crypto market still exist?
For this purpose, we specially invited seven senior practitioners in the crypto field for a dialogue spanning optimism and caution, bull and bear market predictions. They are:
- Jason | Founder of NDV Fund: Previously responsible for Chinese investments at the family office of Alibaba founder Joe Tsai, involved in both primary and secondary markets. Investment style leans towards combining the rigor of the primary market with the liquidity of the secondary market. Their first fund achieved an absolute return of about 275% in 23 months, has been fully exited, and as an open-end fund, all investors achieved profits.
- Ye Su | Founding Partner of ArkStream Capital: Has invested in over a hundred companies and projects like Aave, Filecoin, Ethena over the past eight years, following institutional investors.
- Jack Yi | Founder of Liquid Capital: Focuses on actual positions and trading strategies, paying attention to the allocation value of mainstream assets, stablecoins, and exchange ecosystems at different cycle stages.
- James | Founder of DFG: Currently manages over $1 billion in assets, made early investments in companies like LedgerX, Ledger, Coinlist, Circle, and is also an early investor and supporter of protocols like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Uniswap.
- Joanna Liang | Founding Partner of Jsquare Fund: A 90s entrepreneur and investor, currently managing over $200 million in assets and specifically operating a $50 million LP fund; has previously invested in multiple star projects including Pudgy Penguins, Circle, Amber Group, Render Network.
- Bruce | Founder of Maitong MSX: Has a mining background, judging the long-term profit space and risk boundaries of the crypto market from mining costs, cycle returns, and industry maturity.
- CryptoPainter | Crypto Data Analyst: Uses on-chain data and technical indicators as main tools, combined with historical cycle characteristics, for quantitative judgment of market phases and trend inflection points.
I. What Exactly is the "Four-Year Cycle" We Talk About?
Before discussing whether the cycle is "invalid," we first need to clarify a premise:
What exactly does the 'four-year cycle' we mention refer to?
From the general consensus of the interviewees, the traditional four-year cycle is primarily driven by Bitcoin's block reward halving, which occurs approximately every four years. The halving means new supply decreases, miner behavior changes, and it supports the price center in the long term. This is the core, and most mathematically grounded, part of the "four-year cycle" narrative.
However, some guests also placed the crypto cycle within a broader financial framework. NDV founder Jason believes the four-year cycle is actually a dual-wheel drive model of political cycle + liquidity cycle, not just a simple code规律 (rule/pattern) of halving. The so-called four years highly coincides with the US election cycle and the global central banks' liquidity release rhythm. Previously, people only looked at the halving, thinking it was the only variable, because the amount of new Bitcoin added each cycle was large before. But now, with the approval of spot ETFs, Bitcoin has entered the macro asset sequence. The expansion speed of the Fed's balance sheet and the growth of global M2 are the real core factors defining the cycle. So in his view, the four-year cycle is essentially a cycle of fiat liquidity. Simply thinking from the mathematical impact of the supply side, BTC will only add 600,000 new coins this cycle (2024-2028), which is too small for the issued scale of about 19 million. The new selling pressure of less than $60 billion can also be easily digested by Wall Street.
II.规律 (Law), or a Self-Fulfilling Narrative?
When a concept is repeatedly verified and widely spread, it often evolves from a "law" (规律) to a "consensus," and further into a narrative. And narratives themselves can affect market behavior in turn. Therefore, an unavoidable question is: Is the four-year cycle an objectively existing economic law, or a market narrative collectively believed in, thus constantly self-fulfilling?
Regarding the cause of the four-year cycle, our interviewees' views were largely consistent, believing it is the result of the joint action of objective mechanisms and market narratives, but呈现出 (presenting) different dominant forces at different stages.
As CryptoPainter said, the four-year cycle indeed had extraordinary significance in the early days when miner output was high. But this supply-demand change cycle has a明显的 (obvious) marginal effect. Theoretically, as halvings occur multiple times, the influence of the halving event itself on supply and demand is also halving. So the proportional increase in each bull market also shows logarithmic reduction. One can guess that the next halving cycle will have an even smaller price impact. Jason also pointed out that as the scale becomes larger, the impact of单纯 (pure) supply-side changes is diminishing. The current cycle is more based on the self-fulfillment of liquidity.
Jsquare Fund founding partner Joanna Liang added from the perspective of market behavior that the four-year cycle is, to a considerable extent, characterized by "self-fulfillment." As the participation structure of institutions and retail investors changes, the relative importance of macro policies, regulatory environment, liquidity conditions, and the halving event will be重新排序 (reordered) each cycle. In this dynamic game, the four-year cycle is no longer an "iron law," but just one of many influencing factors. In her view, precisely because the fundamentals are constantly evolving, it is not impossible for the market to break the four-year cycle规律 (rule) or even sprint for a "super cycle."
Overall, the guests' consensus is: The four-year cycle indeed had a solid supply-demand foundation in its early stages, but as miners' influence in the market declines and Bitcoin gradually shifts towards an asset allocation attribute, the cycle is transitioning from being strongly mechanism-driven to a result of the combined action of narratives, behavior, and macro factors. The current cycle may have gradually changed from a "hard constraint" to a "soft expectation."
III. This Cycle's Increase is Significantly Smaller: Is it Natural Cycle Decrement, or "Overshadowed" by ETFs and Institutional Capital Influence?
On this issue, almost all guests gave relatively consistent directional judgments: This is the natural result of marginal effect递减 (diminishing returns), not a sudden failure of the cycle. Any growth market will experience a process of multiple递减 (decreasing multiples). As Bitcoin's market capitalization continues to expand, each new "multiple" requires exponentially growing capital inflows. Therefore, the decline in return rate is itself a natural law.
From this perspective, "not rising as much as before" is actually a result that conforms to long-term logic.
But the deeper change comes from the market structure itself.
Joanna Liang believes the biggest difference in this cycle compared to the past is the early entry of spot ETFs and institutional capital. In the previous cycle, Bitcoin hitting a historical high was mainly driven by marginal retail liquidity. In this round, over $50 billion in ETF funds continuously flowed in around the halving, absorbing the supply冲击 (shock) before it truly manifested. This spread the price increase over a longer time dimension, no longer集中表现为 (centrally manifesting as) a parabolic爆发 (explosion) after the halving.
Jack Yi also added from the perspective of market cap and volatility that as Bitcoin steps into the trillion-dollar级别 (level), declining volatility is an inevitable result of mainstream assetization. When the market cap was small early on, capital inflows easily brought exponential growth. At the current scale, even doubling requires极其庞大的 (extremely massive) new capital.
DFG founder James positioned the halving as a "variable that still exists, but whose importance is declining." In his view, future halvings will be more like secondary catalysts. What truly determines the trend will be institutional capital flows, the landing of real demands like RWA, and the macro liquidity environment.
However, Maitong MSX founder Bruce did not完全认同 (completely agree) with this point. He believes the halving increases Bitcoin's production cost, and cost ultimately still forms a long-term constraint on price. Even as the industry enters a mature stage and overall returns decline, the halving will still positively impact price through cost increases, just not in the form of剧烈波动 (violent fluctuations).
Overall, the guests do not believe "smaller increases" are caused by a single factor. A more reasonable explanation is: The marginal impact of the halving is declining, while ETFs and institutional capital are changing the rhythm and form of price formation. This is not the halving failing, but the market no longer爆发 (exploding) around the single point of the halving.
IV. So What Stage Are We Actually In Now?
If the previous discussion focused more on "whether the cycle structure still holds," then this question is clearly more practical: Standing at the present moment, are we in a bull market, a bear market, or some过渡阶段 (transition phase) not yet accurately named?
It is on this point that the interviewees'分歧 (differences) were most apparent.
MSX founder Bruce is relatively pessimistic. He believes it is a typical early bear market, just that the end of the bull market has not been acknowledged by most participants. His judgment is based on the most basic cost and return structure. In the last cycle, Bitcoin's mining cost was about $20,000, and the price rose to a maximum of $69,000. The profit margin at the miner level was nearly 70%. In this cycle, the mining cost after the halving is接近 (close to) $70,000. Even if the price reached the historical high of $126,000, the profit margin is only just over 40%. In Bruce's view, as an industry that has been around for nearly 20 years, the decline in cycle return rate each round is normal. Different from 2020-2021, in this cycle, a large amount of incremental capital did not choose to enter the crypto market but flowed to AI-related assets. At least in the North American market, the most active risk-appetite capital is still concentrated in the AI sector of US stocks.
CryptoPainter's judgment is明显偏向 (clearly偏向 (leans towards)) the technical and data level. He believes the current market has not yet entered a真正意义上的 (truly cyclical) bear market but is already in a technical bear market—its core标志 (marker) is the weekly level breaking below the MA50. The past two bull markets experienced technical bear markets in their later stages, but this does not mean the cycle ends immediately. A true cyclical bear market often requires同步 (synchronous) macroeconomic recession as a confirmation condition. Therefore, he describes the current stage as a "probation state": The technical structure has already weakened, but macro conditions have not yet given the final verdict. He specifically mentioned that the total stablecoin supply is still growing. When stablecoins also stop growing for a long time (over 2 months), the bear market will be confirmed.
In contrast, more guests' judgments still lean towards: The cycle has essentially失效 (失效 (become invalid)), currently in a mid-to-late bull market correction, and likely to enter a震荡上行 (oscillating upward) or slow bull mode in the future. Jason and Ye Su's judgments are both based on global macro liquidity. In their view, the US currently has almost no other option but to use monetary easing to delay the集中释放 (concentrated release) of debt pressure. The rate-cutting cycle has just begun; the liquidity "faucet" is not closed. So as long as global M2 is still expanding, crypto assets, as the most sensitive sponge to liquidity, have not ended their upward trend. Additionally, he mentioned that the real bear market signal is when central banks substantially tighten liquidity, or when the real economy experiences a severe recession causing liquidity to dry up. Currently, these indicators do not show abnormalities; instead, they show liquidity is蓄势待发 (building momentum). And from the market's leverage ratio, if contract open interest is too high relative to market cap, it is usually a signal for short-term adjustment, not a bear market signal.
Jack Yi also believes that Wall Street and institutions are重构 (reconstructing) the financial system based on blockchain. The chip structure is becoming more stable, no longer prone to large fluctuations like in the early retail-dominated days. Moreover, with the change of the Fed chairman, the rate-cutting cycle coming, and the most crypto-friendly policies in history, the current fluctuations will be seen as wide oscillations in the future, and the medium to long term is viewed as a bull market.
The分歧 (disagreement) itself is perhaps the most authentic characteristic of this stage. The judgments of our interviewees this time constitute an imperfect but sufficiently real small sample: some have confirmed a bear market, others are waiting for data to give the final answer, but more probably believe the four-year cycle theory is basically invalid.
And more importantly, it is no longer the only, or even the main, framework for understanding the market. The importance of the halving, time, and sentiment is being重新评估 (re-evaluated), while macro liquidity, market structure, and asset attributes are becoming more critical variables.
V. The Core Driving Force of the Eternal Bull Market: From Sentiment Bull to Structural Bull
If the "four-year cycle" is weakening, and the future crypto market no longer presents clear bull-bear switches but enters a state of long-term oscillating upward with significantly compressed bear markets, then what is the core动力 (driving force) supporting this structure?
Jason believes it is the systematic decline of fiat currency credit and the normalization of institutional allocation. As Bitcoin is gradually seen as "digital gold" and enters the balance sheets of sovereign nations, pension funds, and hedge funds, its upward logic no longer relies on a single cycle event but is closer to gold, a "long-term asset against fiat depreciation." Price performance will also show a spiral rise. At the same time, he特别强调了 (特别强调了 (especially emphasized)) the importance of stablecoins. In his view, compared to Bitcoin, stablecoins have a larger potential user base, and their penetration path is closer to the real economy. From payments, settlements, to cross-border capital flows, stablecoins are becoming the "interface layer" of a new generation of financial infrastructure. This means the future growth of the crypto market does not完全依赖 (completely rely on) speculative demand but will gradually embed itself into real financial and commercial activities.
Joanna Liang's judgment echoes this. She believes an important variable for the future slow bull comes from sustained adoption at the institutional level, whether through spot ETFs or tokenization paths like RWA. As long as institutional allocation behavior continues, the market will show a "compound interest" style upward structure—volatility is smoothed out, but the trend will not reverse.
CryptoPainter's perspective is more direct. He pointed out that the right side of the BTCUSD trading pair is USD. Therefore, as long as global liquidity remains宽松 (loose) in the long term and the dollar is in a weak cycle, asset prices will not experience a deep bear. Instead, they will slowly oscillate upward through一次次 (一次次 (repeated)) technical bear markets. The traditional bull-bear structure will also shift to a "long-term oscillation -拉升 (surge) - long-term oscillation"形态 (pattern) similar to gold.
Of course, not everyone agrees with the "slow bull narrative."
Bruce's judgment on the future is明显偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (clearly偏向悲观 (极偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观 (extremely偏向悲观极 (extremely pessimistic). He believes the global economic structural problems are not solved: worsening employment environment, young people lying flat, highly concentrated wealth, accumulating geopolitical risks. Against this background, the probability of a severe economic crisis in 2026-2027 is not low. If macro systemic risks truly erupt, crypto assets will not be immune.
To some extent, the slow bull is not a consensus but a conditional judgment建立在 (built on) the continuation of liquidity.
VI. Is There Still a Traditional "Altcoin Season"?
"Altcoin season" is almost an inseparable part of the four-year cycle narrative. But in this cycle, its absence has instead become one of the most frequently discussed phenomena.
The poor performance of altcoins this cycle has multiple reasons. Joanna pointed out: First, the rise of Bitcoin's dominance formed a "safe-haven within risk assets" pattern, making institutional capital prefer blue-chip assets. Second, the regulatory framework is gradually maturing, making altcoins with clear utility and compliance more conducive to long-term adoption. Third, there is no killer app and clear narrative like DeFi and NFT in the previous cycle.
Another consensus among the guests is that there might be a new altcoin season, but it will be more selective, only围绕 (revolving around) a few tokens that truly have use cases and can generate revenue.
CryptoPainter put it more彻底 (thoroughly). He believes a traditional altcoin season is impossible to reappear because the term "traditional" means the total number of altcoins is within a reasonable range. Currently, the total number of altcoins has been破新高 (breaking new highs) unprecedentedly. Even if macro liquidity overflows in, there are too many monks and too little粥 (porridge - i.e., resources), making a普涨 (universal rise)行情 (market) impossible. Therefore, even if there is still an altcoin season, it will be极个别 (very few),局部 (local) altcoin seasons according to sector narratives. Paying attention to individual altcoins now is meaningless; one needs to pay attention to tracks and sectors.
Ye Su used US stocks as an analogy: Future altcoin performance will be more like the M7 in US stocks—blue-chip altcoins outperform the market long-term, small-cap altcoins occasionally surge, but with极弱 (extremely weak) sustainability.
归根结底 (In the final analysis), the market structure has changed. It was previously a retail-driven attention economy; now it is an institution-driven报表经济 (statement economy).
VII. Position Distribution Situation
In such a market with模糊 (blurry) cycle structure and narrative断裂 (fracture), we also asked several guests about their actual position distribution.
A rather impactful fact: Most interviewees have basically清仓 (cleared out) altcoins, and many are at半仓 (half-position) state.
Jason's position strategy明显偏向 (clearly leans towards) "defense + long-term." He said he currently prefers using gold instead of dollars as a cash management tool to hedge fiat risk. For digital assets, most positions are allocated to BTC and ETH, but are cautious about ETH allocation. They prefer assets with high确定性 (certainty), i.e., hard currency (BTC) and exchange equity (Upbit).
CryptoPainter strictly follows the rule of "cash ratio not less than 50%." His core allocation is still BTC and ETH, with altcoin positions below 10%. He exited all gold positions at $3500 and has no plans to allocate gold for now. Simultaneously, he has some extremely low-leverage short positions on US stock AI sector品种 (varieties) with large valuation bubbles.
Jack Yi's risk preference is relatively higher. His fund is接近满仓 (close to full position), but the structure is also concentrated: Core is ETH,配置 (allocated) with stablecoin logic (WLFI), supplemented by large-cap assets like BTC, BCH, BNB. The logic is not gambling on the cycle but betting on the long-term structure of public chains, stablecoins, and exchanges.
In stark contrast is Bruce. He has almost清空 (emptied) all crypto positions, including selling BTC around $110,000. In his view, there will still be opportunities to buy back below $70,000 in the next two years. His US stocks are also some防御型/周期类 (defensive/cyclical) stocks, and he will probably clear out most US stocks before next year's World Cup.
VIII. Is Now a Good Time to Buy the Dip?
This is the most operational of all questions. Bruce's attitude is pessimistic. He believes it is far from the bottom. The real bottom appears at the moment "no one dares to buy the dip anymore."
The cautious CryptoPainter also believes the most ideal price to buy the dip or start dollar-cost averaging is below $60,000. The logic is simple: starting to buy陆续 (gradually) after the highest price is halved has been proven a successful strategy in every bull market. Clearly, this target won't be reached short-term. His view on the current market is: after 1-2 months of large-range oscillations, next year有望 (is expected to) test the price above $100,000 again, but大概率 (most likely) cannot break new highs. Subsequently, macro monetary policy利好出尽 (favorable policies are exhausted), the market lacks follow-up liquidity and new narratives, and will officially enter a cyclical bear. Then patiently wait for monetary policy to start a new round of monetary easing and aggressive rate cuts.
More guests' attitudes are relatively neutral to bullish. They believe now might not be the time for "aggressively buying the dip," but it is a window period to start分批建仓 (building positions in batches) and gradually allocating. The only consensus: Do not add leverage, do not频繁波段 (frequently trade swings), discipline is far more important than judgment.
