Why Surging 87% Rate-Cut Odds Matter for BTC Pred

Why Surging 87% Rate-Cut Odds Matter for BTC

Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket now show probabilities above 80–87% for a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s Dec. 9–10 policy meeting. Financial markets also assign an 87% probability of a rate cut, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

In other words, traders see very little chance that the Fed will hold rates steady (only 13% are betting on no change), and almost no chance of a larger cut, with just 1% expecting a reduction of 50 basis points or more.

Lower interest rates typically weaken the dollar, boost liquidity, and improve risk sentiment across the crypto market. Bitcoin price has already shown signs of stability around the $90,000 level, and a confirmed December cut could strengthen the case for BTC to retest the $100,000 mark.

In such a scenario, some analysts see potential for Bitcoin to break new all-time highs. For instance, Dr. Whale, a widely followed market commentator, has predicted that Bitcoin could reach $130,000 to $150,000 in the next four months.