USD Coin Price(USDC)

Circle: Still Worth Buying After the Pullback? Circle, the issuer of the second-largest stablecoin USDC, is at a critical juncture. Its current valuation of $15-20B primarily reflects its interest income from $770B in USDC reserves. However, data suggests a potential transformation into a fee-based digital dollar infrastructure network. Key evidence for this shift includes: * USDC's on-chain transaction volume grew 247% in FY2025, far outpacing its 72% circulation growth, indicating it's being *used* more, not just held. * Adjusted for on-chain noise, USDC dominates real economic settlement volume (64% per Visa data), despite USDT having 2.4x its market cap. Circle's three-layer revenue structure is evolving: 1. **Interest Income (95% of current revenue):** Tied to USDC circulation and interest rates. Faces headwinds from potential Fed cuts and a revenue-sharing agreement with Coinbase. 2. **Payment & Transaction Fees:** The key to becoming an infrastructure play. The Circle Payments Network (CPN) is scaling rapidly ($5.7B annualized TPV), and non-interest revenue surged to $37M/quarter. 3. **Settlement Platform (Arc):** A long-term bet on becoming an institutional settlement standard, though its value remains unproven. Near-term catalysts include the Coinbase revenue-sharing agreement renewal (Aug 2026) and potential full OCC bank charter approval. A 3-5x return is plausible if USDC circulation grows at 40% CAGR. A 10x return requires multiple successes: CPN scaling, improved Coinbase terms, non-interest revenue exceeding 10% of total, and progress on Arc. Major risks include faster-than-expected interest rate declines, Tether achieving greater legitimacy, and competition from new yield-bearing stablecoins and payment giants like Stripe. The investment thesis hinges on tracking three metrics: USDC circulation growth, its velocity (via Visa data), and the growth of non-interest revenue. The data is leaning toward a successful transformation, but it is not yet guaranteed.

OSL Group (863.HK) has partnered with Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) to expand the use of USDC on its trading and payment platform. Through OSL Global, users can now exchange USDC for USD at a 1:1 ratio and trade USDC against BTC, ETH, SOL, USDT, and USD. USDC has also been integrated as a unified margin currency for contracts to improve capital efficiency for both retail and institutional clients. Additionally, OSL’s payment services now support USDC for digital dollar settlements. Subject to regulatory approvals, OSL may also integrate Circle’s USYC, a leading tokenized money market fund. The collaboration aims to enhance stablecoin liquidity, support seamless value exchange, and strengthen digital asset infrastructure in Hong Kong and global markets.

Circle's Q1 2026 financial report shows total revenue and reserve income of $6.94 billion, slightly below expectations, with net profit at $550 million, down 15% year-over-year. The company attributes the slowdown in revenue growth to declining reserve asset yields following a Federal Reserve rate cut. However, other revenue streams reached a record $420 million, indicating a diversification away from interest dependence. Key operational highlights include USDC's circulating supply reaching 77 billion, a 28% annual increase, while its on-chain transaction volume surged 263% to $21.5 trillion, showing significantly higher usage frequency. Circle's core RLDC Margin improved to 41%, reflecting better cost control. Looking beyond interest rate reliance, Circle is expanding into new areas. Its Arc Network completed a $2.22 billion ARC token presale at a $30 billion valuation. The company also launched Agent Stack, an infrastructure suite for AI Agent economies, and its Circle Payments Network (CPN) shows an estimated annual transaction volume of $83 billion. The report suggests Circle's strategy is evolving from merely issuing a stablecoin to building USDC into a foundational dollar network for the internet, targeting cross-border payments, enterprise settlement, and the emerging AI-driven economy.

Better Mortgage, in partnership with Coinbase, is launching a U.S. home loan product that accepts Bitcoin and USDC as collateral, with a nationwide rollout planned for summer 2026. The first loan has already been issued to a couple in Michigan. A key distinction from earlier crypto-backed loans is the involvement of Fannie Mae, which provides a conforming guarantee, effectively treating digital assets as valid collateral. The product also differs by not subjecting the crypto collateral to liquidation if its value declines; the assets remain in custody for the loan's entire term. Better projects an initial loan volume of $250 million based on early sign-ups and plans to expand to other digital assets like tokenized stocks.

Coinbase, a key distributor of the dominant stablecoin USDC, has joined over 140 major companies—including Visa, Mastercard, and BlackRock—as a founding member of the Open USD (OUSD) alliance, a move that directly challenges the current stablecoin economic model. The new project aims to upend the established profit structure by offering zero minting and redemption fees and allocating the majority of reserve interest earnings to distribution partners, rather than the issuer. This shift highlights a growing power struggle in the $320+ billion stablecoin market, where platforms with massive user bases are demanding a larger share of the revenue generated from the underlying reserves. Circle, the issuer of USDC, saw its stock plummet 16% on the day of the OUSD announcement, reflecting investor concern over the potential strain on its crucial partnership with Coinbase. While Coinbase earned over $900 million from its USDC partnership in 2024, its support for a competing model gives it significant leverage as its revenue-sharing agreement with Circle nears expiration in August 2026. Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire defended the USDC model, emphasizing its decade-long development, deep liquidity, and extensive ecosystem integration, which he argues cannot be easily replicated by a large, potentially slow-moving consortium. He also questioned the sustainability of a zero-fee model and warned that diverting all reserve interest would leave issuers without funds for critical compliance and operational infrastructure. Analysts remain skeptical of OUSD's prospects, citing the "cold start" problem of building liquidity, potential governance challenges within a large alliance, and heightened regulatory scrutiny. The emergence of OUSD signals a broader industry bifurcation, where stablecoins are increasingly viewed as backend settlement tools. The core competition is shifting from technology to a direct negotiation over how profits from the network are distributed between issuers and the powerful distribution channels.