Winklevoss-led Gemini rolls out prediction markets in 50 US states

cointelegraphОпубліковано о 2025-12-16Востаннє оновлено о 2025-12-16

Анотація

Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins, has launched its prediction market platform, Gemini Predictions, across all 50 US states. This follows its affiliate, Gemini Titan, receiving a designated contract market license from the CFTC. The platform allows users to trade on real-world events with yes/no questions, featuring instant execution and transparency. This move is part of Gemini's strategy to build a comprehensive "super app" for crypto trading, staking, and other services, aligning with a broader industry trend. The launch occurs amid a warming US regulatory environment for prediction markets, with other major providers like Polymarket also resuming operations after past restrictions.

Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange founded by billionaire twins Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, has rolled out prediction markets in the United States after securing key regulatory approval.

Gemini has launched its in-house prediction market, Gemini Predictions, rolling out the offering across all 50 US states, the exchange announced in an X post on Monday.

Provided via affiliate Gemini Titan, Gemini Predictions enables users to trade real-world events with yes or no questions with “near instant execution” and full transparency.

The launch came shortly after Gemini Titan obtained a designated contract market license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last Wednesday, authorizing the company to offer prediction markets in the US.

Rising trend for building “everything apps”

The arrival of Gemini Predictions marks the company’s latest step in building a “one-stop super app,” allowing users to not only trade crypto, but also stake assets, earn rewards, buy tokenized stocks and participate in prediction markets.

The move aligns with a broader industry trend toward all-in-one platforms in crypto, with rival exchanges like Coinbase rushing to introduce a wide range of services, including trending prediction markets and tokenized stocks.

Gemini Prediction’s market on the price of Bitcoin on Dec. 31. Source: Gemini

The trend has also been picked up by self-custodial wallets like MetaMask and Trust Wallet, as well as major decentralized exchanges (DEX) like PancakeSwap, which released a new BNB Chain-based prediction platform Probable on Tuesday.

Related: Phantom taps Kalshi to offer regulated prediction markets in wallet

The project adds to a growing portfolio of prediction markets backed by YZi Labs, the venture capital firm founded by Binance co-founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, including Opinion, which has topped volume rankings in November.

Major providers had faced issues in the US

The industry’s push to launch prediction markets follows years of regulatory uncertainty in the United States, with major providers such as Polymarket resuming local operations after previously facing a ban in 2022.

The platform started rolling out its relaunch in the US in early December, announcing that waitlisted users will be the first to access its US app.

Source: Polymarket

In another sign of a warming US stance toward prediction markets, a group of providers including Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com have recently received a temporary reprieve from enforcement after a judge intervened following cease and desist orders issued by the state of Connecticut in early December.



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Founder of Baixing.com: The Notion That Large Language Models Will Devour Everything, I Believe Half of It

Founder of Baixing.com: I Only Half-Believe the Saying “Large Language Models Will Devour Everything” Author: Wang Jianshuo, Founder of Baixing.com Many proclaim that large models are everything, but the author is skeptical. He argues that such sweeping claims often stem from a limited understanding of the future. Drawing parallels to past technologies like electricity and the internet—which were predicted to “devour everything” but didn’t—he suggests that large language models (LLMs) are better seen as a foundational base. Like electricity, this base is essential for modern development, but its real value emerges only when applied to specific scenarios through various “machines” or “tools” (e.g., Claude Code for programming, Claude Design for design). The author acknowledges that LLMs may indeed replace many existing software systems built on rigid rules, workflows, and forms (e.g., CRMs, SaaS tools), as these are precisely what LLMs excel at processing. However, he emphasizes that beyond software, elements like customer data, execution capabilities (e.g., booking a flight), trust, and physical-world interactions will not be “devoured.” Instead, he foresees that after streamlining existing software, LLMs will open up a larger space for innovative, next-generation applications. These new tools will likely feature fluid interfaces and rely less on fixed rules, unleashing greater creativity. The author cautions against short-sightedness, recalling how in 2004 many believed internet giants like Sina, Sohu, and NetEase would monopolize the market—only to be proven wrong by subsequent disruptions. In conclusion, while LLMs are a crucial foundation and a current focal point, the true mainstream of this wave lies in the diverse applications built atop them to solve concrete problems. The phrase “devour everything” is imprecise; the real opportunity lies in identifying and leveraging the areas where LLMs do bring transformative change.

marsbit14 хв тому

Founder of Baixing.com: The Notion That Large Language Models Will Devour Everything, I Believe Half of It

marsbit14 хв тому

Founder of Baixing.com: I Only Half Believe in the Notion that Large Language Models Devour Everything

The founder of Baixing Wang states that while large language models (LLMs) are an extremely important foundational technology—akin to electricity or the internet—he only "half believes" the notion that they will "consume everything." He argues that LLMs provide a base layer of intelligence, but real-world value and transformation come from integrating this intelligence into specific applications and devices designed for particular scenarios—like how electricity powers various appliances from washing machines to TVs. He agrees LLMs will likely consume or replace a significant portion of existing rule-based, workflow-driven software (e.g., many SaaS systems, CRMs), as these are precisely what LLMs excel at handling. However, numerous other elements—such as customer data, execution capabilities (e.g., booking a flight), trust, and physical-world interactions—will not be consumed. Wang emphasizes that after LLMs absorb certain software layers, they will open up a much larger space for innovation: new types of "streaming" software with less rigid interfaces, where fixed rules are managed by AI. This next wave of applications built on top of the stable LLM foundation is where the true mainstream opportunity lies. He cautions against the short-sightedness of declaring any technology as all-consuming, drawing parallels to past premature predictions about internet giants monopolizing the web. The key is to find opportunities within the areas LLMs do transform.

链捕手19 хв тому

Founder of Baixing.com: I Only Half Believe in the Notion that Large Language Models Devour Everything

链捕手19 хв тому

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