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Strait of Hormuz Impasse Continues to Support Oil Prices, Fed Officials Turn Hawkish, Wall Street Enters "Waiting for Answers" Mode
The three major indices opened higher but closed lower, falling for a second consecutive day. The Dow Jones lost 0.34% to 53,791.85, the S&P 500 fell 0.32% to 7,728.20, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.6% to 26,445.45. The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants were a collective drag, with Google plunging nearly 4% in a single day. The market chose to wait-and-see ahead of key CPI data, with the S&P 500 maintaining an extremely narrow range for the fourth consecutive trading day.
A rare divergence has emerged in sentiment. While the S&P 500 has repeatedly hit new highs, shorts have outnumbered longs in 20 of the past 25 weeks, indicating institutional positioning significantly lags fundamentals. 22V Research points out that such excessive pessimism has historically often preceded rebounds, with attractive expected returns over the next 1-6 months; however, Wells Fargo's sentiment indicator is nearing its strongest sell signal since 2018, suggesting adding hedges before CPI. Citadel Securities judges the deleveraging phase is nearing an end, with systematic funds, hedge funds, and corporate buybacks preparing to add positions again.
Negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz have completely devolved into a war of attrition. On Tuesday, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezai and Supreme Leader adviser Mokhber stated in unison: unless the US unfreezes assets, ends regional conflicts, and accepts all conditions, the strait will not reopen. On the same day, US forces in the Gulf of Oman fired missiles at a Panamanian-flagged cargo ship attempting to breach the blockade, having already forced 55 merchant vessels to reroute; Houthi attacks on Saudi and Egyptian ships in the Bab el-Mandeb caused the first crew deaths since the Iran war. The EIA simultaneously raised its WTI and Brent crude price forecasts for this year and next, and expects Middle East oil supply disruptions to last at least until 2027. Crude oil rose for a third consecutive day, with Brent nearing $90, and diesel crack spreads remain elevated, directly boosting near-term supply premiums.
Fed officials collectively turned hawkish again. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee bluntly stated, "The biggest problem is that prices are rising too fast," while Cleveland Fed President Harker indicated multiple rate hikes might be needed to bring inflation back to 2%. Market bets for a September hike or hold are now roughly split 50-50. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 2 basis points against the oil price rise to 4.69%, mainly due to weaker-than-expected existing home sales data reinforcing bets on the rate-cut side. Notably, CTAs expanded their global bond short positions to about three times the level of two weeks prior at the end of July. For every 1 basis point move in the 10-year yield, the related CTA profit/loss exposure is about $300 million, among the highest levels since 1990. If tonight's CPI data is soft and triggers a bond rally, a crowded short covering could amplify volatility.
AI Computing Power & Optical Communication Earnings Boom, Tech Stock Divergence Intensifies
The US tech sector diverged sharply last night. While mega-cap tech stocks weighed on the indices, semiconductors, memory, optical communications, AI cloud, and alternative asset management companies performed strongly. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.87%, with 24 of its 30 components advancing. SK Hynix gained 4.7%, SanDisk rose 2.68%, CRDO added 3.23%, and Lumentum closed up 0.87%. Cloud computing service providers like CoreWeave moved significantly higher and exploded higher after hours on earnings.
In contrast, most of the "Magnificent Seven" declined: Google fell 3.84% (its biggest single-day drop in nearly six months), Amazon dropped 2.09%, Apple lost 1.09%, Microsoft slipped 0.44%, and Nvidia was nearly flat. The market still harbors "circular financing" doubts about the $500 billion computing power financing platform announced by Nvidia on Monday, despite CEO Jensen Huang clarifying the company's own exposure is capped at no more than 25% and is limited support. Credit default swaps subsequently narrowed.
Alternative asset managers, however, benefited significantly from the same financing framework. KKR surged 6.88%, Apollo rose 6.26%, Brookfield gained 4.77%, and Blackstone added 3.89%. The market believes massive capital is needed for AI data center construction, making private credit and infrastructure funds direct beneficiaries.
Furthermore, GPU computing power financialization is accelerating. CME will launch H100 and B200 GPU computing power futures on October 5th, tracking hourly GPU leasing costs. This means companies can hedge computing power costs just like they hedge oil or electricity prices. Meanwhile, AI governance regulatory pressure is heating up. US Senator Sanders sent letters to the CEOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta demanding a pause in AI development, otherwise Congress will intervene; House Democrats simultaneously pressured Speaker Johnson to arrange for AI giants' CEOs to testify before Congress, adding uncertainty to tech stock sentiment.
Specific Company Actions and Stock Price Movements:
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CoreWeave closed up 2.42%, after-hours up over 16%: Q2 revenue was $2.575 billion, up 112% YoY, beating expectations. Backlog reached $104 billion, with over $25 billion in new commitments added early in Q3. CEO stated new contracts carry 5-10 percentage points higher margins. Related AI cloud stocks followed higher: NEBIUS up nearly 5% (earnings tonight pre-market), RIOT, Hut 8, IREN all gained over 2.5%.
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Lumentum closed up 0.87%, night session大涨约7% (soared about 7% in after-hours): Q4 revenue was $1.01 billion, skyrocketing 109% YoY; non-GAAP EPS surged 267% to $3.23. Despite a one-time non-cash loss of $7.8 billion from debt extinguishment leading to a GAAP net loss of $7.2 billion, next quarter revenue guidance midpoint is as high as $1.255 billion (8% above expectations). CEO said pump lasers are "completely sold out," with strong demand for 1.6T and CPO/NPO. The optical communication sector broadly benefited: CRDO up 3.23%, Marvell Technology up 1.80%, AAOI up 1.14%, Coherent up 1.05%, Corning up 0.91%.
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Super Micro Computer closed up 0.45%, after-hours up over 10%: Q4 sales of $11.12 billion slightly missed expectations, but gross margins nearly doubled. Q1 sales guidance midpoint exceeds expectations by 25%, and FY2027 guidance is also significantly above market.
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Nvidia edged down 0.02%: Reportedly developing the trillion-parameter open-source model Nemotron 4, aiming to rival global top open-source LLMs, further locking in GPU demand. Market concerns eased after Jensen Huang's clarification on the financing plan, stabilizing its stock price.
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Memory chip sector rebounded: Micron executives warned memory shortages will persist beyond 2027. Micron Technology closed up 0.87%, SK Hynix surged 4.70%, SanDisk gained 2.68%, Seagate Technology rose 2.44%.
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Intel closed up 0.19%: Its $20 billion share sale received tacit approval from the Commerce Department, though the government will not participate in the subscription, providing ammunition for AI expansion.
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Google broke support, falling 3.84%: CEO Sundar Pichai announced Gemini monthly active users officially exceeded 1 billion, becoming Google's 14th product in the "billion-user club"; however, weighed down by department restructuring shadows and the broader tech giant sell-off, the stock recorded its biggest single-day drop in nearly six months.
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Other giants: Apple's plans for a major glass redesign for the iPhone's 20th anniversary in 2027 remain unchanged, refuting some analyst cancellation rumors; Oracle was pressured by rumors of a new round of layoffs, with the market starting to re-examine cost control pressures behind cloud business's high growth, its stock fell 3.71%; SpaceX fell nearly 4%.
Key Events to Watch Next:
August 12th (Wednesday)
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US EIA, OPEC, IEA Monthly Reports Released Densely: These three major energy reports will collectively examine global crude oil supply/demand, inventories, OPEC+ production discipline, and demand outlook. If reports indicate tightening supply or rising Strait of Hormuz risks, oil prices may continue upward, re-lifting inflation expectations; if demand expectations are revised down, the oil price rebound momentum could be limited.
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20:30 US July CPI: The market expects US headline CPI YoY to ease from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI YoY from 2.6% to 2.5%. If data is below expectations, September rate hike bets will cool further, Treasury yields and the dollar may fall, benefiting the Nasdaq, gold, long-dated bonds, and high-valuation growth stocks; if CPI is hot, the market will reprice tightening risks, and US stock valuations, especially AI tech stocks, could face pressure.
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20:00 Tencent Holdings Q2 Earnings Call: The week's most important earnings for the Hong Kong market's core heavyweight. The market focuses on gaming business recovery, Video Accounts ad monetization, FinTech profit margins, AI capex, Hunyuan model, Yuanbao, and WeChat AI feature progress.
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Unitree Tech Allotment Payment: As a high-profile humanoid robotics IPO, the payment situation and market enthusiasm will continue to influence robotics concept sentiment.
August 13th (Thursday)
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Cisco, Coherent, Cerebras Earnings After US Market Close: Cisco will validate AI networking equipment demand; Coherent will validate high-speed optical communication and 800G/1.6T optical module momentum. If orders, gross margins, and guidance are strong, the "long optical communication" trade may continue; if disappointing, the optical module sector, with recent large gains, faces profit-taking.
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06:00 Google Product Launch Event: Expected to launch Pixel 11 series, Pixel Watch 5, and Pixel Buds Pro. The core看点 (key看点) is the deep integration of Tensor G6 with the Gemini ecosystem. If on-device AI experience exceeds expectations, it will catalyze the AI phone, on-device models, sensors, and Android ecosystem chain.
