Анотація
Based on the article "Truth, Bubbles, and Illusions: A Look Back at the 2025 Crypto Report Card," here is a summary of its main points:
The author reflects on their 2025 predictions for the crypto market. They admit to being wrong about Bitcoin's peak in Q4, as the cycle held, and wrong about a memecoin or AI agent supercycle, as retail investors favored traditional assets like gold and AI stocks instead. The AI x Crypto narrative saw mixed results with project development but poor token performance, and NFTs were declared "dead."
Key insights from 2025 include:
1. **Bitcoin ETFs acted as a floor, not a ceiling:** Massive selling by long-term holders created a $95B supply overhang, causing BTC to underperform. However, its correlation with traditional risk assets fell, which is bullish long-term.
2. **Airdrops are not dead:** Nearly $4.5B was airdropped in 2025 (e.g., Story Protocol, Berachain). The game has shifted towards requiring more focused, high-conviction farming due to points fatigue and better Sybil detection.
3. **Fee switches set a price floor, not an engine for growth:** Token buybacks from fees establish a bottom price but don't guarantee appreciation, as seen with UNI's price action. The market treats everything as a trade.
4. **Stablecoins gained traction for payments, but "proxy trading" was difficult:** Stablecoins like USDT saw real-world adoption for payments. However, investing in related equities (e.g., Circle's IPO) proved challenging, as gains we...
Author: Ignas
Compilation: Plain Talk Blockchain
Original Title: Crypto Truth and Lies: A Review of the 2025 Report Card
A year ago, I wrote "Truth and Lies of the 2025 Crypto Market".
At that time, everyone was sharing higher Bitcoin price targets. I wanted to find a different framework to discover where the public might be wrong and to position myself differently. The goal was simple: to seek out ideas that already existed but were overlooked, disliked, or misunderstood.
Before sharing the 2026 edition, here is a clear review of what truly mattered in 2025. What we got right, what we got wrong, and what we should learn from it. If you don't examine your own thinking, you're not investing, you're guessing.
Quick Summary
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"BTC Peaked in Q4": Most people expected this, but it seemed too good to be true. Turns out they were right, and I was wrong (and paid the price). Unless BTC skyrockets from here and breaks the 4-year cycle pattern, I'll concede this one.
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"Retail Prefers Memecoins": The truth is, retail doesn't prefer crypto at all. They bought gold, silver, AI stocks, and anything that wasn't cryptocurrency. The supercycle for memecoins or AI Agents also did not materialize.
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"AI x Crypto Remains Strong": Mixed results. Projects continued to deliver, the x402 standard evolved, and funding continued. But tokens failed to sustain any rallies.
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"NFTs Are Dead": Yes.
These are easy to review in hindsight. The real insights lie in the following five larger themes.
1. Spot ETFs Are the Floor, Not the Ceiling
Since March 2024, long-term Bitcoin holders (OGs) have sold approximately 1.4 million BTC, worth about $121.17 billion.
Imagine the bloodbath in the crypto market without ETFs: Despite the decline in price, BTC ETF inflows remained positive ($26.9 billion).
The gap of about $95 billion is precisely why BTC underperformed almost all macro assets. There's nothing wrong with BTC itself; you don't even need to dig deep into unemployment or manufacturing data to explain it—it's just the "great rotation" by whales and "4-year cycle believers".
More importantly, Bitcoin's correlation with traditional risk assets like the Nasdaq fell to its lowest since 2022 (-0.42). While everyone hoped for an upward breakout in correlation, in the long run, this is bullish as an uncorrelated portfolio asset sought by institutions.
There are signs the supply shock is over. Therefore, I dare to predict a BTC price of $174,000 for 2026 (equivalent to 10% of gold's market cap).
2. Airdrops Clearly "Did Not" Disappear
The crypto community (CT) once again claimed airdrops were dead. But in 2025, we saw nearly $4.5 billion in large airdrop distributions:
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Story Protocol (IP): ~$1.4B
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Berachain (BERA): ~$1.17B
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Jupiter (JUP): ~$7.91M
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Animecoin (ANIME): ~$7.11M
The changes are: points fatigue, stronger Sybil detection, and lower valuations. You also need to "claim and sell" to maximize returns.
2026 will be a big year for airdrops, with heavyweights like Polymarket, Metamask, Base(?) preparing to launch tokens. This is not the year to stop clicking buttons, but to stop betting blindly. Airdrop "farming" requires concentrated effort on high-conviction bets.
3. Fee Switches Are Not Price Appreciation Engines, They Are the Floor
My prediction was: Fee switches won't automatically drive token prices up. Most protocols don't generate enough revenue to support their massive market caps.
"The fee switch doesn't affect how high the token can go; it sets a 'floor price'."
Look at the projects ranked by "Holder Revenue" on DeFillama: Except for $HYPE, all high revenue-share tokens outperformed ETH (though ETH is now the benchmark everyone challenges).
The surprise was $UNI. Uniswap finally flipped the switch and even burned $100 million worth of tokens. UNI initially surged 75% but then gave back all its gains.
Three revelations:
Token buybacks set a price floor, not a ceiling.
Everything this cycle is a trade (refer to UNI's pump and dump).
Buybacks are only one side of the story; sell pressure (unlocks) must be considered, as most tokens are still low float.
4. Stablecoins Capture Mindshare, But "Proxy Trading" Is Hard to Monetize
Stablecoins are going mainstream. When I rented a motorbike in Bali, the owner even asked for payment in USDT on TRON.
Although USDT's dominance fell from 67% to 60%, its market cap is still growing. Citibank predicts the stablecoin market cap could reach $1.9 to $4 trillion by 2030.
In 2025, the narrative shifted from "trading" to "payment infrastructure". However, trading the stablecoin narrative wasn't easy: Circle's IPO gave back all its gains after an initial surge, and other proxy assets also underperformed.
One truth of 2025: Everything is just a trade.
Currently, crypto payment cards are exploding due to their convenience in bypassing strict bank AML requirements. Every card swipe is a transaction on-chain. If direct peer-to-peer payments bypassing Visa/Mastercard emerge in 2026, that would be a 1000x opportunity.
5. DeFi Is More Centralized Than CeFi
This is a bold claim: DeFi's business and TVL concentration is higher than that of traditional finance (CeFi).
Aave commands over 60% of the lending market share (compared to JPMorgan's 12% in the US).
L2 protocols are mostly multi-billion dollar unregulated Multisigs.
Chainlink controls almost all value oracles in DeFi.
In 2025, the conflict between "centralized equity holders" and "token holders/DAO" became apparent. Who truly owns the protocol, IP rights, and revenue streams? The internal dispute at Aave showed that token holders have fewer rights than we thought.
If the "Labs" ultimately win, many DAO tokens will become uninvestable. 2026 will be a crucial year for aligning the interests of equity and token holders.
Summary
2025 proved one thing: Everything is a trade. Exit windows are extremely short. No token has long-term conviction.
As a result, 2025 marked the death of HODL culture, DeFi turned into Onchain Finance, and with improving regulation, DAOs are shedding their "pseudo-decentralized" disguise.
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Original link:https://www.bitpush.news/articles/7601755
Пов'язані питання
QWhat was the author's main prediction about Bitcoin's price cycle in 2025, and were they correct?
AThe author predicted that Bitcoin would peak in Q4 of 2025, but they were wrong. The market followed the expected four-year cycle, and the author admitted to paying the price for this incorrect prediction.
QAccording to the article, what was the state of the NFT market in 2025?
AThe article states that NFTs were dead in 2025, confirming the author's previous prediction.
QHow did the performance of tokens with fee switches (like UNI) compare to the author's expectations?
AThe author predicted that fee switches would not automatically drive token prices up but would instead set a price floor. This was confirmed when UNI initially surged 75% after its fee switch was activated but then gave back all its gains, showing that buybacks set a price bottom, not a ceiling.
QWhat significant shift occurred in the stablecoin narrative in 2025?
AThe narrative for stablecoins shifted from 'trading' to 'payment infrastructure' in 2025, as their use for real-world payments grew, exemplified by instances like a Balinese motorbike rental requesting payment in USDT on the TRON network.
QWhy does the author argue that DeFi is more centralized than CeFi?
AThe author argues that DeFi is more centralized due to extreme market concentration: Aave holds over 60% of the lending market share (compared to JPMorgan's 12% in the U.S.), L2 protocols are run by multi-sigs, and Chainlink dominates the oracle market for DeFi.
Пов'язані матеріали
The 'Summer Saw' Continues: A Break Above $67,000 Could Signal the Start of Bitcoin's Rally
Bitcoin continues to consolidate within a $58,000–$67,000 range, with its price dropping to $62,217 on August 1st. Analysts are divided on the next direction. Trader Crypto Candy suggests a potential drop towards $60,000 if the price remains below $66,000. Investor Jelle refers to the prolonged sideways movement as a "summer saw" and maintains a dollar-cost averaging strategy.
The key upside scenario hinges on a breakout above $67,000. Daan Crypto Trades states that without this, the movement risks being just an extended pause. Roman projects a sharper rise to $70,000–$80,000+ if a breakout occurs with sufficient volume.
Macro-analyst Gert van Lagen views this as an accumulation phase within a multi-year "cup and handle" pattern. He notes that long-term holders are refusing to sell, as indicated by the NUPL metric staying far from capitulation.
In summary, the market is in an accumulation phase, with the $60,000 and $67,000 levels being critical. A break above $67,000 could initiate significant growth, while a fall below $60,000 may lead to further decline. The recent pullback shows that legislative catalysts have provided only short-lived momentum, raising questions about the sustainability of any future breakout attempts.
cryptonews.ru17 хв тому
cryptonews.ru17 хв тому
Must-Watch Events Next Week｜CLARITY Act Could Face Senate Vote; SpaceX, Circle to Report Earnings (8.3-8.9)
**Summary: Key Events and Developments to Watch (August 3-9)**
The upcoming week is marked by significant financial disclosures, key legislative deadlines, and notable product updates.
**Major Financial Events:** Several companies are scheduled to release their Q2 2026 earnings. American Bitcoin (ABTC) will report on August 3, followed by SpaceX and Hut 8 Mining Corp. on August 4, and Circle on August 5. Notably, a significant portion of SpaceX shares (up to 12% of total shares) will be unlocked on August 6 following their earnings release.
**Key Legislative Deadline:** The U.S. Senate faces an August 7 deadline to secure 60 votes for the CLARITY Act, a bipartisan bill aiming to establish a federal regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. The Senate may hold a full vote on the bill during the week.
**Economic Data:** The U.S. July Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released on August 7, providing crucial labor market data.
**Technology & Product Updates:**
* **Shutdowns:** DeFi portfolio tracker Zapper and wallet app Ctrl Wallet will cease operations on August 3.
* **Upgrades:** LayerZero will deprecate its v1 relayers on August 3. XRP Ledger's new version 3.3.0, featuring five new functions, is expected next week.
* **AI:** Elon Musk announced that the advanced Grok 4.6 AI model is set for release around August 7.
* **Bitcoin:** The BIP-110 forced signaling for a potential Bitcoin network change is scheduled to begin around August 8.
**Other Notable Events:** Chinese robotics firm Unitree Tech has set its preliminary price inquiry for its IPO for August 5. South Korean exchange Upbit will delist AQT and AERGO tokens on August 3.
marsbit57 хв тому
marsbit57 хв тому
Stocks Are Plummeting More Sharply Than Cryptocurrencies. Where Has the Money Gone?
Stock Markets Plunge Deeper Than Cryptocurrencies: Where Did the Money Go?
In late July, Seoul's Kospi index triggered circuit breakers for two consecutive days, plummeting over 40% from its June high. The collapse was led by heavyweight stocks like SK Hynix, whose record profits still disappointed investors, and devastating leveraged ETFs, with one major product losing over 83% of its value. This signaled a global, forced deleveraging targeting the most crowded trades.
Interestingly, while stocks exhibited extreme volatility akin to crypto markets, Bitcoin rose nearly 15% in July after a prior steep drop. Analysis shows the money fleeing equities did not flow into Bitcoin. Instead, Bitcoin had already absorbed its sell-off in May-June, when U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw historic outflows. The true safe-haven beneficiary was gold, whose price rose over 20% year-on-year, highlighting a decoupling between Bitcoin and gold as "digital gold."
The sell-off was a targeted unwinding of leveraged positions in tech and semiconductors, accelerated by broker-dealer risk management and shifts in the AI narrative, including new competition from Chinese memory chipmakers. The retreat path was clear: from high-valuation tech stocks to cash and U.S. Treasuries, then to gold.
For Bitcoin to attract sustained institutional inflows, conditions like eased global liquidity pressure, a "soft-landing" Fed rate cut, and U.S. regulatory clarity via legislation like the stalled CLARITY Act are needed. Currently, Bitcoin is not a safe haven but an already-cleared asset. Its low correlation with tech stocks, however, makes it a potential diversification play for institutional portfolios once the storm passes. The money isn't here yet, but the positioning is underway.
marsbit57 хв тому
marsbit57 хв тому
In Conversation with Ray Dalio: We Are Currently in an AI Bubble, with 1% of My Portfolio in Bitcoin
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns in an interview that the current AI boom shows classic bubble characteristics, which could lead to significant economic downturns as seen in past cycles like 1929 or 2000. He explains that speculative enthusiasm, fueled by debt and overvaluation, often precedes a crash when rising rates or taxation force asset sales, causing widespread losses and recession.
Dalio also outlines his "Big Cycle" theory, describing an approximate 80-year pattern where widening wealth gaps, massive government deficits, and shifting geopolitical power (like China's rise) create internal conflict and global instability. He emphasizes that we are in a late-cycle, transitional phase where traditional powers like the US and UK face decline.
For personal wealth protection, Dalio advises diversification beyond cash into assets like stocks, bonds, real estate, and particularly gold, which he prefers over Bitcoin. While he holds about 1% of his portfolio in Bitcoin as a non-printable hard asset, he views gold as more secure from technological or governmental threats.
Regarding AI's impact, Dalio believes it will disproportionately benefit capital owners, worsening inequality by replacing both physical and cognitive labor. He suggests that human intuition and emotional intelligence, combined with AI, will be key for future workers.
On taxation, Dalio argues that wealth taxes are impractical and risk triggering asset sell-offs, reducing productive investment. He points to the UK as a cautionary example of debt, low productivity, and political strife.
Geopolitically, Dalio foresees a more regionalized world, with the US showing weakness in prolonged conflicts like with Iran, akin to past imperial declines. The ideal outcome, he suggests, is coexisting powerful blocs (e.g., Americas, China-Asia Pacific) without major war.
marsbit4 год тому
marsbit4 год тому
Daily 7.2 Trillion KRW: Foreign Capital's Record Net Buying on Friday! Wall Street Says Headwinds for Korean Stock Fund Flows Have Subsided
South Korean stock market sees a dramatic shift in fund flows. On July 31, foreign investors made a record net purchase of approximately KRW 7.2 trillion in KOSPI stocks, marking a fundamental reversal from the persistent large-scale net outflows seen in previous months. This contributed to a significant narrowing of foreign net selling in July to KRW 9.8 trillion, down sharply from KRW 48.4 trillion in June and KRW 44.5 trillion in May.
Simultaneously, domestic institutional pressure eased. South Korean pension funds and asset managers turned to a net buying position in July, purchasing KRW 1.0 trillion worth of KOSPI shares, contrasting with net sales in May and June.
Market volatility is expected to be dampened by new financial regulations. Effective July 31, the Financial Services Commission tightened access for retail investors to single-stock leveraged ETFs by raising the minimum cash deposit requirement. Trading volumes for these products subsequently dropped to about 50% of their monthly average.
Citigroup Research maintains its year-end KOSPI target of 10,000 points. The firm cites several supportive factors: the substantial easing of headwinds from capital outflows, a robust fundamental outlook for the semiconductor sector, historically low market valuations, strong economic fundamentals, and the potential for policy support from financial authorities if needed.
marsbit4 год тому
marsbit4 год тому
