The bull phase in the cryptoasset market is directly dependent on macroeconomic factors and requires, among other things, a decline in the hype surrounding the AI sector. This opinion was shared by Spencer Hallarn, Head of Markets at GSR.
In his view, the AI sector is absorbing a large portion of the free capital in the market, crowding out cryptocurrency. Hallarn sees an opportunity for the next bull rally if the hype around this sector subsides and the US Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates.
At the same time, he is confident in the growth of primarily bitcoin, not the market as a whole. Hallarn explained this by stating that other cryptocurrencies need to "realize the use cases promised for years," thereby proving their value.
"The market is currently sluggish, and this is not uncommon — activity is typically quite closely tied to price and market capitalization, so when both are low, trading volume also decreases. A significant portion of what is diverting attention and capital from cryptocurrencies is AI. It is the defining technology trend at the moment, and investors are treating it as such," he noted.
As the GSR representative noted, clients of brokers and market makers are more disciplined in a falling market. This primarily concerns hedging and planning.
Under such conditions, investors are paying more attention to over-the-counter risk hedging structures and asset diversification, including through tokenized products (RWA). This is also confirmed by the fact that crypto exchanges are moving from trading only cryptocurrency to a broader basket of assets.
"The boundaries between cryptocurrencies, stocks, and other trading products are blurring. [...] I would view tokenization not so much as a new trading product in itself, but rather as a challenge to the traditional banking and settlement systems operating today. The greater opportunity lies in fixing the infrastructure, not simply wrapping an asset in a token," he noted.
What are the chances the Fed will ease policy?
Last time, the regulator left interest rates unchanged. At the same time, experts agree that in September 2026, the Fed will tighten policy against a backdrop of persistently high inflation and rising energy prices.
The previous interest rate cut was in December 2025.
A possible interest rate hike was also announced by Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. This indicates that the regulator's leadership is leaning towards more stringent measures to control inflation.
The AI hype is not subsiding
According to OECD data, venture capital investment in this sector reached $258.7 billion in 2025. This is 61% of the total investment volume in principle. Since 2022, the AI sector's share has more than doubled.
In Q1 2026, the funding volume reached $300 billion, according to Crunchbase, equivalent to 150% growth quarter-over-quarter.
Also noteworthy is that neither Anthropic nor OpenAI, the largest players in this sector, have yet conducted an initial public offering (IPO). The listing of these companies' shares would also lead to a significant influx of liquidity and, consequently, an outflow from other sectors, including the cryptocurrency sector.
