L1 Value Capture Shrinks Significantly, ETH, SOL, HYPE Struggle to Return to Price Peaks
The article "L1 Value Capture Shrinks Significantly: ETH, SOL, HYPE Struggle to Return to Price Peaks" argues that Layer-1 blockchains face a structural, not cyclical, problem: their ability to capture value through transaction fees is systematically eroded by innovation.
Historically, periods of high demand (e.g., Bitcoin congestion, Ethereum's DeFi Summer, Solana's memecoin frenzy) create fee revenue peaks. However, these peaks inevitably stimulate the creation of cheaper alternatives that siphon away this income. The core finding is that open, permissionless networks cannot sustain high fee revenues; profitability is consistently competed away.
**Key Examples:**
* **Bitcoin:** Fee spikes from congestion (2017, 2021) were quickly mitigated by innovations like SegWit, batching, the Lightning Network, and wrapped BTC. The 2024-2025 bull run saw minimal fee growth despite a 3x price increase, with ETFs providing massive BTC exposure without on-chain fees.
* **Ethereum:** The 2020-2021 fee boom from DeFi and NFTs was dismantled by competing L1s and, crucially, its own L2 scaling solutions. The Dencun upgrade (EIP-4844) drastically reduced data costs for L2s, causing Ethereum's L1 fee revenue to collapse by over 95% from its peak.
* **Solana:** Its revenue relies heavily on MEV/tips from volatile memecoin trading. This income is now being compressed by private AMMs (which hide liquidity to prevent MEV) and platforms like Hyperliquid, which are moving the most profitable price discovery activity off-chain.
**Impact on Token Valuation:**
The market is shifting from valuing L1s based on "on-chain profit" to "asset narratives" and "structural capital flows." The analysis suggests:
* **ETH:** Now resembles a low-yield infrastructure asset. Its fee compression is structural and ongoing.
* **SOL:** While network activity may hit new highs, its matured fee-capturing mechanisms mean MEV revenue is unlikely to return to previous peaks, making a new all-time high price difficult.
* **HYPE (Hyperliquid):** Currently benefits from high fees on its perp DEX. However, its fee model is under immense pressure to compress towards traditional finance (TradFi) rates (e.g., CME), threatening its projected high earnings and potentially its token price.
* **BTC:** Its security model is unique and inverted. It relies almost entirely on block subsidies, not fees. Miner survival post-halving depends entirely on the USD price of BTC doubling to offset the 50% reduction in BTC-denominated rewards, making long-term security precariously tied to perpetual price appreciation.
marsbit11 год тому
