# Пов'язані статті щодо Betting

Центр новин HTX надає останні статті та поглиблений аналіз на тему "Betting", що охоплює ринкові тренди, оновлення проєктів, технологічні розробки та регуляторну політику в криптоіндустрії.

They Knew the TGA Game of the Year Winner in Advance and Made Tens of Thousands of Dollars

Summary: The 2025 TGA (The Game Awards) ceremony concluded with the indie game "Light & Shadow: Expedition 33" making history by winning both "Best Independent Game" and the coveted "Game of the Year (GOTY)" award, breaking a long-standing TGA curse. Prior to the event, the prediction market platform Polymarket had already listed the topic, with "Light & Shadow's" probability of winning GOTY consistently above 80% for over a month. Several traders, including users DieselDiesel, trumpnogo, and kasae, placed unusually large, concentrated bets on this outcome weeks in advance, a move that would have resulted in massive losses if wrong. Their bets appeared to be "all-in" convictions rather than calculated risks. Just three hours before the GOTY announcement, after the "Best Indie" award was given to the same game, a mysterious user (bobo9997) deposited $10,000 and bet it all on "Yes" for "Light & Shadow" winning GOTY at a price of $0.98 per share—a bet that would yield less than $200 in profit if correct. The final award confirmed the predictions. The early traders realized significant profits, with their winnings from this single event representing a large percentage of their total historical earnings on the platform (e.g., 176% for DieselDiesel). The article suggests these traders likely had insider knowledge of the results, using the prediction market as a anonymous, low-risk method to monetize their confidential information, turning a guaranteed outcome into thousands of dollars with virtually no risk.

marsbit12/12 07:40

They Knew the TGA Game of the Year Winner in Advance and Made Tens of Thousands of Dollars

marsbit12/12 07:40

Crypto Market Prices the Verdict: $1.8 Billion Bet on Do Kwon's Sentencing Outcome

The cryptocurrency market is witnessing an extraordinary $1.8 billion in futures trading volume for LUNA and LUNA2 tokens, despite their lack of fundamental value. This surge in speculative activity is directly tied to the upcoming sentencing hearing of Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon in a New York federal court on December 11th. Prosecutors are seeking a 12-year prison sentence for Kwon’s role in the $40 billion Terra-LUNA collapse, while his defense team is arguing for a 5-year term. This 7-year discrepancy has created a high-stakes betting environment. The market is characterized by extreme divergence, with a high volume of short positions (indicated by negative funding rates) and a powerful counter-force of buyers attempting to squeeze those shorts. The article argues that the current LUNA traders are not the original victims of the crash but are now primarily event-driven speculators, quantitative funds, and opportunistic traders. For them, LUNA has been transformed from a failed project into a pure "legal derivative," a volatile instrument whose price is entirely driven by the legal outcome of Kwon's case, devoid of any fundamental anchor. The author concludes that regardless of the sentencing outcome—whether a harsh or light sentence—the event's conclusion will likely cause LUNA's price to collapse. A harsh sentence would reaffirm its zero fundamental value, while a light sentence would trigger a "sell the news" event. This situation exemplifies the crypto market's cold, hyper-efficient ability to price and monetize anything, including justice and a person's freedom, reducing moral judgment to mere noise against the pursuit of volatility and profit.

比推12/10 14:17

Crypto Market Prices the Verdict: $1.8 Billion Bet on Do Kwon's Sentencing Outcome

比推12/10 14:17

Polymarket: Odds of a U.S. Crypto Reserve in 2025 Plummet by 98%

Based on prediction market data from Polymarket, the probability of the United States establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve by the end of 2025 has plummeted by 98%, falling to just 1% from a peak of 77% in March. This sharp decline follows former President Donald Trump's campaign promise and subsequent executive order to create a national Bitcoin reserve, which initially fueled market optimism. The market for this event, titled "US National Bitcoin Reserve by 2025?", launched in January with an initial probability of 41%. Optimism surged to 77% after Trump signed the order and Congress began working to codify it into law. However, the failure to conduct a mandated audit of federal crypto holdings by an April 5th deadline, a crucial step for forming the reserve, has caused confidence to collapse. By December 8th, the tokenized "Yes" bet for the reserve's creation in 2025 was trading at just $0.01, representing a 1% probability and a total market volume of $5.15 million. A parallel market for the creation of a reserve by 2027 has also been launched but sees minimal activity. This event has been one of the largest on Polymarket, a leading crypto prediction platform whose data is increasingly cited by major news outlets like Bloomberg.

RBK-crypto12/08 13:27