Strategy Watch #2

insights.glassnodeОпубліковано о 2026-03-24Востаннє оновлено о 2026-03-24

Анотація

Strategy Watch #2 provides institutional analysis of digital asset fund performance and allocation trends. The report covers six key areas: institutional capital flows, fund performance, macro strategies, on-chain vault returns, manager sentiment, and allocation updates. In February and early March, Bitcoin and Ethereum saw significant net outflows (-$9.6B and -$3.2B respectively), while stablecoins attracted inflows (+$6.2B), suggesting a defensive shift toward lower-risk assets. BTC ETF flows turned positive in March, though institutional conviction remains cautious. DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL) on Ethereum declined sharply, with peak outflows of -$23.7B in February, indicating reduced participation in on-chain yield strategies. CME basis yields continued to tighten, reflecting lower institutional leverage and softer derivatives demand. The report also highlights performance trends, with only one strategy type generating positive returns in February. Over 300 managers shared their three-month market outlook, and a new $750M fund of funds was announced.

The full report is freely available in PDF format.

Download PDF version

Welcome to Strategy Watch #2

Strategy Watch was built to address a clear demand for high-signal, impartial analysis of fund-level performance and allocation trends in digital assets.

The inaugural edition confirmed this demand, reaching a broad audience of key decision makers, from leading global asset managers, hedge funds, major investment banks, top-tier crypto-native funds and Fund of Funds.

Building on this early momentum, our objective is straightforward — to make Strategy Watch a must-read monthly publication for the digital asset investment community.

This publication is strengthened by direct input from market participants. Funds and allocators that contribute data and insights help shape a more complete and valuable view of the landscape.

If you have insights, data, or allocation updates worth sharing, we welcome your contribution.

Present your latest initiatives and updates to a curated audience of institutional allocators.

Share updates ↗

Inside the Latest Strategy Watch

The report is structured across six core sections, each focused on a distinct dimension of institutional activity in digital assets:

01 Institutional Flow Monitor |

02 Fund and SMA Performance | February was a bloodbath, check this section to see the only strategy type that returned positively last month.

03 Strategy Deep Dive: Macro Strategies | Hear firsthand from a macro portfolio manager on how they are navigating the current geopolitical challenges. 

04 On-chain Vault Performance | Are ETH curators underperforming ETH staking yield?

05 Manager Monitor | Find out how more than 300 managers are expecting the crypto market to perform over the next three months.

06 Allocation Updates | New USD 750m Fund of Funds is launching. Check this section to learn more.

in partnership with

The Premier Digital Assets Allocator Platform. Learn more

Institutional Flow Monitor

Capital flows into BTC and ETH remained deeply negative through February and into March, with stablecoins turning net positive in early March as investors rotated toward lower-risk positioning.

Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to experience sustained net outflows, with BTC and ETH capital flows registering -$9.6B and -$3.2B. However, stablecoins broke from the broader negative trend, flipping to +$6.2B in net inflows. Rather than signaling a broad return of risk appetite, this rotation likely reflects a defensive repositioning, with capital migrating into dollar-denominated on-chain instruments while conviction in spot crypto assets remains under pressure heading into mid-Q1 2026.

ETF & DAT Net Flows

After sustained February outflows, BTC ETF and DAT flows returned to positive, while ETH institutional flows showed early signs of stabilization.

After sustained February outflows, Bitcoin ETF and DAT flows returned to positive territory, recovering to +28k BTC and +46.8k BTC respectively. Ethereum flows were more measured, with ETF flows near neutral at +46.5k ETH and DAT flows stabilizing at +295.8k ETH. While the directional shift is encouraging, the recovery remains early-stage and uneven, and it would be premature to characterize this as a broad resumption of institutional conviction.

DeFi TVL & Stablecoin Cap

DeFi TVL on Ethereum saw sharp contraction through February before showing early signs of stabilization in March, though the broader declining trend since August 2025 remains intact.

Total Value Locked on Ethereum recorded peak outflows of -$23.7B per month in February, implying sustained withdrawal by larger allocators from on-chain activities such as liquidity provisioning and yield strategies. This slowdown alone is insufficient to signal a reversal, and diminished conviction in DeFi risk-adjusted returns continues to point to shallower liquidity depth across the ecosystem.

CME Basis Yield

CME Basis Yield compressed even further in February, reinforcing waning incentives for market-neutral strategies compared to January.

The monthly dollar value captured by institutions via cash-and-carry trades declined notably for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, building on the sharp compression seen since August 2025. This tightening basis reflects reduced leverage deployment, softer futures demand, and continued pullback in balance-sheet commitment amid tighter liquidity conditions persisting from January into early March 2026.

Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.
Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies. Please read our Transparency Notice when using exchange data.

Пов'язані питання

QWhat is the primary purpose of the Strategy Watch publication?

AStrategy Watch was built to address a clear demand for high-signal, impartial analysis of fund-level performance and allocation trends in digital assets, aiming to be a must-read monthly publication for the digital asset investment community.

QWhich was the only strategy type that returned positively in February according to the report?

AThe report indicates that readers should check the 'Fund and SMA Performance' section to see the only strategy type that returned positively in February, though the specific strategy name is not stated in the provided text.

QWhat was the trend in capital flows for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) through February and into March?

ACapital flows into BTC and ETH remained deeply negative, with BTC and ETH capital flows registering -$9.6B and -$3.2B, respectively.

QHow did stablecoin capital flows behave in contrast to BTC and ETH in early March?

AStablecoins broke from the broader negative trend, flipping to +$6.2B in net inflows, which likely reflects a defensive repositioning into lower-risk, dollar-denominated on-chain instruments.

QWhat does the sharp compression in CME Basis Yield indicate about market conditions?

AThe compression in CME Basis Yield reflects reduced leverage deployment, softer futures demand, and a continued pullback in balance-sheet commitment amid tighter liquidity conditions, indicating waning incentives for market-neutral strategies.

Пов'язані матеріали

In Conversation with Ray Dalio: We Are Currently in an AI Bubble, with 1% of My Portfolio in Bitcoin

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns in an interview that the current AI boom shows classic bubble characteristics, which could lead to significant economic downturns as seen in past cycles like 1929 or 2000. He explains that speculative enthusiasm, fueled by debt and overvaluation, often precedes a crash when rising rates or taxation force asset sales, causing widespread losses and recession. Dalio also outlines his "Big Cycle" theory, describing an approximate 80-year pattern where widening wealth gaps, massive government deficits, and shifting geopolitical power (like China's rise) create internal conflict and global instability. He emphasizes that we are in a late-cycle, transitional phase where traditional powers like the US and UK face decline. For personal wealth protection, Dalio advises diversification beyond cash into assets like stocks, bonds, real estate, and particularly gold, which he prefers over Bitcoin. While he holds about 1% of his portfolio in Bitcoin as a non-printable hard asset, he views gold as more secure from technological or governmental threats. Regarding AI's impact, Dalio believes it will disproportionately benefit capital owners, worsening inequality by replacing both physical and cognitive labor. He suggests that human intuition and emotional intelligence, combined with AI, will be key for future workers. On taxation, Dalio argues that wealth taxes are impractical and risk triggering asset sell-offs, reducing productive investment. He points to the UK as a cautionary example of debt, low productivity, and political strife. Geopolitically, Dalio foresees a more regionalized world, with the US showing weakness in prolonged conflicts like with Iran, akin to past imperial declines. The ideal outcome, he suggests, is coexisting powerful blocs (e.g., Americas, China-Asia Pacific) without major war.

marsbit17 хв тому

In Conversation with Ray Dalio: We Are Currently in an AI Bubble, with 1% of My Portfolio in Bitcoin

marsbit17 хв тому

Daily 7.2 Trillion KRW: Foreign Capital's Record Net Buying on Friday! Wall Street Says Headwinds for Korean Stock Fund Flows Have Subsided

South Korean stock market sees a dramatic shift in fund flows. On July 31, foreign investors made a record net purchase of approximately KRW 7.2 trillion in KOSPI stocks, marking a fundamental reversal from the persistent large-scale net outflows seen in previous months. This contributed to a significant narrowing of foreign net selling in July to KRW 9.8 trillion, down sharply from KRW 48.4 trillion in June and KRW 44.5 trillion in May. Simultaneously, domestic institutional pressure eased. South Korean pension funds and asset managers turned to a net buying position in July, purchasing KRW 1.0 trillion worth of KOSPI shares, contrasting with net sales in May and June. Market volatility is expected to be dampened by new financial regulations. Effective July 31, the Financial Services Commission tightened access for retail investors to single-stock leveraged ETFs by raising the minimum cash deposit requirement. Trading volumes for these products subsequently dropped to about 50% of their monthly average. Citigroup Research maintains its year-end KOSPI target of 10,000 points. The firm cites several supportive factors: the substantial easing of headwinds from capital outflows, a robust fundamental outlook for the semiconductor sector, historically low market valuations, strong economic fundamentals, and the potential for policy support from financial authorities if needed.

marsbit17 хв тому

Daily 7.2 Trillion KRW: Foreign Capital's Record Net Buying on Friday! Wall Street Says Headwinds for Korean Stock Fund Flows Have Subsided

marsbit17 хв тому

Breaking! OpenAI's Next-Gen AI Solves 10 Fields Medal-Level Problems

OpenAI's next-generation AI model Astra achieves breakthroughs in 10 long-standing mathematical conjectures. The results, including constructing the first known infinite, finitely presented non-sofic group—resolving a major question since 1999—and advancing the high-dimensional sphere packing problem beyond a 46-year-old barrier, are detailed in a 249-page paper. Key proofs have been formally verified using Lean 4. The AI also refuted a rigidity conjecture by Fields Medalist Alain Connes. According to OpenAI, generating these proofs cost under $2,000. Experts describe the findings as potentially Fields Medal-worthy and a landmark moment for both mathematics and AI, showcasing the model's ability to produce profound, human-like reasoning across diverse fields like group theory, geometry, and operator algebras.

marsbit1 год тому

Breaking! OpenAI's Next-Gen AI Solves 10 Fields Medal-Level Problems

marsbit1 год тому

How to Make Yourself Irreplaceable by AI Forever

This article argues that the primary threat from AI is not job replacement, but remaining trapped in "wage slavery"—financial dependence on employers. The path to becoming irreplaceable is not resisting AI, but becoming an "unemployable" individual who builds their own meaningful enterprise. The author identifies five key elements for this: Agency (acting without permission), Taste (judging what's worthwhile), Persuasion, Persistence, and Iteration. The solution is to stop being a "pawn" in someone else's game. To start, you must fundamentally change your identity and environment, then engage in rapid, real-world trial and error. While both coding and creating media (content) are powerful, content is more crucial. AI can generate assets, but true value lies in subjective, human-driven content that builds trust and narrative. The actionable advice is to carve out 15 minutes to answer foundational questions: 1) Uncover your "raw material"—what you know deeply or solve effortlessly. 2) Define your contrarian perspective—what common beliefs you think are wrong. The intersection of these answers is your direction. Finally, you must launch by publishing your first core idea immediately, using the feedback to iterate and develop the skills needed for a self-directed life and career.

marsbit2 год тому

How to Make Yourself Irreplaceable by AI Forever

marsbit2 год тому

Thanks to Dice Rolls, Bitcoin Keys Are Stored Offline, But Not Everyone Will Do It

The article discusses using dice rolls to generate secure Bitcoin wallet seeds, providing entropy independent of potentially flawed hardware random number generators. It explains that each fair dice roll offers about 2.585 bits of entropy, with around 50 rolls needed for a standard 12-word seed phrase and 99+ recommended for higher security. This method gained attention after a vulnerability was revealed in some Coldcard hardware wallets, where a faulty firmware RNG (dating back to 2021) compromised generated keys. The analysis notes that while a dice-generated main seed was safe from this specific flaw, other Coldcard functions (like creating paper wallets, backup keys, or passwords) could still be vulnerable if they used the defective RNG. The piece argues that while dice-based entropy is technically robust, the manual process is error-prone, tedious, and unrealistic for most new users, who might make mistakes in recording or inputting rolls. It concludes that while manual entropy generation should remain an option for advanced users, the long-term goal is to develop reliable, user-friendly hardware and software that securely generates randomness without requiring specialized knowledge. Coldcard users are advised to check their firmware version and replace any secondary secrets (like paper wallet keys) created with vulnerable devices, while also considering multi-signature setups with devices from different manufacturers for added security.

cryptonews.ru5 год тому

Thanks to Dice Rolls, Bitcoin Keys Are Stored Offline, But Not Everyone Will Do It

cryptonews.ru5 год тому

Торгівля

Спот
活动图片