Stablecoin Hype Overblown? Moody’s Says Banks Aren’t In Danger

bitcoinistОпубліковано о 2026-04-21Востаннє оновлено о 2026-04-21

Анотація

The article discusses the legislative stalemate in the US over the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (CLARITY Act), which aims to regulate crypto assets. A key point of contention is whether stablecoins should be allowed to pay interest, with crypto companies opposing a ban and banks supporting it. Moody's analyst Abhi Srivastava states that, for now, stablecoins do not pose a significant threat to traditional banks due to existing efficient payment systems and the current prohibition on yield-bearing stablecoins. This limits their appeal for pulling deposits from banks at scale. However, with the stablecoin market cap exceeding $300 billion and growth in tokenized assets, banks could face future pressure from deposit outflows. The crypto industry warns that failure to pass the bill could lead to stricter regulatory crackdowns. Negotiations continue with little progress, despite both sides desiring a resolution.

A bill meant to bring order to the US crypto market is stuck in Congress, caught between two powerful groups that cannot agree on one key question: should stablecoins be allowed to pay interest?

Banks And Crypto In A Legislative Standoff

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 — known as the CLARITY Act — was drafted to establish rules for how crypto assets are classified and overseen in the US. But the bill hit a wall after Coinbase and other crypto companies publicly opposed earlier versions of it.

Among their objections: the bill would ban yield-bearing stablecoins. Banks, for their part, have pushed hard to keep that ban in place.

Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina has been working on a revised draft aimed at satisfying both sides, but reports say it has already drawn pushback and has yet to be released publicly.

The standoff reflects a deeper anxiety in the banking industry — one that a senior Moody’s analyst says may be premature, at least for now.

Near-Term Risk Remains Low, Analyst Says

Abhi Srivastava, associate vice president at Moody’s Investors Service Digital Economy Group, said that the threat stablecoins pose to traditional banks is limited at this point in the adoption cycle.

The US already has payment systems that are fast, low-cost, and trusted, he said, which reduces the appeal of stablecoin-based alternatives for everyday transactions.

According to Srivastava, the current legal prohibition on stablecoins paying yield is a key reason they are unlikely to pull deposits away from banks at any meaningful scale in the near term.

BTCUSD currently trading at $75,268. Chart: TradingView

Still, stablecoin use is not standing still. Data shows the total market cap for stablecoins crossed $300 billion by the end of last year — a figure that reflects growing use in payments, cross-border commerce, and onchain finance.

Tokenized real-world assets, which represent physical or traditional financial assets on a blockchain, are also expanding alongside them.

Image: Flipster

A Longer-Term Pressure Building

Srivastava acknowledged that the picture could shift over time. As both stablecoins and tokenized assets grow in size and use, banks could begin to feel the pressure — through deposit outflows and reduced capacity to lend.

That is not happening today, but it is the scenario the banking lobby appears to be preparing for.

Some voices in the crypto industry are warning that failure to pass the CLARITY Act could leave the sector exposed to crackdowns from less-friendly regulators down the road.

That adds urgency to negotiations that have so far produced little progress. Both sides say they want a deal.

Getting there is another matter.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Пов'язані питання

QWhat is the main disagreement holding up the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025?

AThe main disagreement is whether stablecoins should be allowed to pay interest (yield).

QAccording to Moody's analyst Abhi Srivastava, why is the threat from stablecoins to traditional banks currently limited?

AHe states that the US already has fast, low-cost, and trusted payment systems, and the current legal prohibition on stablecoins paying yield makes them unlikely to pull deposits from banks at a meaningful scale in the near term.

QWhat key milestone did the stablecoin market achieve by the end of last year, as mentioned in the article?

AThe total market capitalization for stablecoins crossed $300 billion.

QWhat is the potential longer-term risk that stablecoins and tokenized assets could pose to banks?

AAs they grow in size and use, they could lead to bank deposit outflows and a reduced capacity for banks to lend.

QWhich company was mentioned as publicly opposing earlier versions of the CLARITY Act?

ACoinbase and other crypto companies publicly opposed earlier versions of the bill.

Пов'язані матеріали

The Value Distribution of Stablecoins

**Summary: The Value Distribution of Stablecoins** The article argues that stablecoins are evolving from mere trading tools into broader channels for dollar access. It divides the stablecoin ecosystem into four layers to analyze how value is distributed: 1. **Issuance Layer:** Mints stablecoins, holds reserve assets, and captures the spread between reserve yield and user costs (e.g., Tether, Circle). This layer currently earns the largest profit margin. 2. **Infrastructure Layer:** Connects stablecoins to the traditional financial system, handling fiat on/off-ramps, banking integration, compliance (KYC/AML), and asset management (e.g., Bridge, BVNK). This is the "unglamorous" but critical work, building the essential bridges between crypto and real-world finance. 3. **Acquiring/Distribution Layer:** Integrates stablecoins into merchant systems, manages payment flows, and provides enterprise financial software (e.g., Stripe, Coinbase). They act as the access point for businesses. 4. **Application Layer:** The end-users and businesses that ultimately use stablecoins for payments, settlements, or as a store of value. They benefit from convenience but have little pricing power. The core thesis is that while the issuance layer currently dominates profits, the often-overlooked **infrastructure layer holds significant long-term potential**. The real challenge and barrier to mass adoption is not the on-chain transfer of stablecoins (which is simple), but the complex "last mile" integration into existing business workflows, banking systems, and regulatory frameworks across different countries. Companies in this layer are currently in a "land grab" phase, investing heavily to build networks, secure bank partnerships, and establish compliance pathways. While their position is currently pressured by the profitable issuers above and distribution platforms below, the article suggests that if stablecoins become a default financial rail for businesses, the infrastructure providers who have done the hard work of integration will ultimately gain strong pricing power and become entrenched, essential players.

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The Value Distribution of Stablecoins

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The Value Distribution of Stablecoins

The Value Distribution of Stablecoins The article argues that stablecoins are evolving from a mere trading tool into a broad "dollar channel." It analyzes the industry's value chain through four layers: 1. **Issuance Layer (e.g., Tether, Circle):** The top layer that mints stablecoins, holds reserve assets, and captures the thickest interest rate spread. 2. **Infrastructure Layer (e.g., Bridge, BVNK):** Connects stablecoins to the traditional financial system, handling critical but complex "dirty work" like fiat on/off-ramps, banking integration, compliance (KYC/AML), and cross-border settlement. 3. **Acquiring/Distribution Layer (e.g., Stripe, Coinbase):** Embeds stablecoins into merchant systems, manages payment flows, and integrates with enterprise software. 4. **Application Layer:** End-users and businesses that ultimately use stablecoins for payments, settlement, or storing value. The author posits that while the issuance layer currently captures the most profit, the most overlooked and potentially critical layer is infrastructure. The core challenge for stablecoin adoption isn't the on-chain transfer (which is simple), but bridging the gap between blockchain and the real-world financial system. This involves solving practical problems for businesses: fiat conversion, reconciliation, tax handling, and user onboarding. Infrastructure companies are currently in a difficult "land-grab" phase—building networks, securing banking relationships, and achieving compliance country-by-country. They face pressure from both the profitable issuance layer above and distribution platforms below. However, the author suggests this layer is building a crucial moat. Once stablecoins become a default business rail, the infrastructure players who have done the hard work of integration may gain significant, durable value and pricing power.

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How to Do Research Well: Deliberately Practice the Real Skills That Matter

No one truly teaches you how to do research. You're often given a desk, a pre-selected problem, and vague instructions to "create something new." Consequently, many people reverse-engineer the job based on visible outputs—papers, posts, announcements—learning only how to *appear* like a researcher rather than how to *become* one. True research capability is built from stacking small, trainable skills, nearly all of which can be developed through deliberate practice. **Pick Your Own Problem:** Most researchers absorb problems from advisors or trends, lacking the underlying reasoning. Choosing a problem you genuinely care about, as John Schulman advises, leads to original work. Develop "taste" like a muscle: predict experiment outcomes, guess paper results from methods, and track which findings remain important over time. **Upgrade Your Inputs:** Relying on shared reading lists (arXiv hot lists, filtered group chats) leads to unoriginal conclusions. Undervalued old literature often holds crucial insights (e.g., MoE, LSTM, backpropagation). Richard Sutton's "The Bitter Lesson" or Claude Shannon's 1952 talk on creative thinking are more predictive than lengthy modern surveys. Breadth matters as much as depth: draw from neuroscience, mechanism design, hardware knowledge, and honest statistics. Read papers directly, especially appendices and limitations sections. **Write Everything Down:** As Paul Graham noted, writing exposes flaws in seemingly mature ideas. Writing is the cheapest defense against self-deception. Following Feynman's principle, Darwin programmatically wrote down facts contradicting his theory to combat memory bias. Maintain a detailed log of hypotheses, setups, predictions, results, and updated understandings. Reviewing past logs fosters essential humility.

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