Russian analysts have begun assessing the outcomes of the legalization of cryptocurrency trading after the Bank of Russia adopted a draft regulation allowing investors to legally acquire crypto assets through brokers, which comes into force on September 1.
Anatoly Popov, Deputy Chairman of the Executive Board of Sberbank, emphasized that the forecasts for trading volumes in the first year under the new regime are conservative, as the bank estimates that only a small portion of cryptocurrency activity will transition to regulated brokers.
Nevertheless, Sberbank expects the volume of regulated trading in the first year to reach at least 4 trillion rubles ($46.43 billion) and gradually increase to approximately 7.5 trillion rubles ($87.06 billion) by 2029 as investors migrate to the official exchange system.
"According to Finance Ministry data from February, the daily volume of cryptocurrency transactions in Russia is about 50 billion rubles, or roughly 18 trillion rubles per year. Analysts at SberCIB Investment Research give a rather conservative estimate: in the first year after legalization, about 20% of this volume, or 3.5–4 trillion rubles per year, will be traded on exchanges. By 2028, this figure could grow to 4.75–5.25 trillion rubles, and by 2029 — to 7.5 trillion rubles," Popov told TASS.
One of the key factors constraining these figures, besides the continued use of services from unregistered cryptocurrency exchanges, is the legal limit on cryptocurrency investments and the limited choice of options available through official channels, which may not suit some investors.
Non-qualified investors can purchase cryptocurrency for an amount not exceeding 300,000 rubles (about $3,800) per year through one licensed intermediary after passing a risk-awareness test — this limit is justified by the Bank of Russia. Although the Bank of Russia recently eased the requirements for obtaining qualified investor status, their investment volume is capped at up to 3 million rubles (about $38,000), which limits their ability to trade large volumes.
Additionally, only Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Tether (USDT) have received approval from the Bank of Russia for trading on official Russian exchanges, while other significant altcoins remain outside this market. Exchanges can register until July 1, 2027, following the end of the transition period.
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