Retail capitulates on XRP as $51B in losses mount – Yet ONE group refuses to sell

Unrealized losses across Ripple [XRP] expanded sharply after the market reversed from the July 2025 peak near $3.65. During that rally, many investors accumulated positions between $2.50 and $3.50, forming a dense cost basis zone.

However, momentum weakened as prices gradually declined toward $1.35, pushing a large portion of those buyers underwater.

As the price slipped below the estimated $1.38 average holder cost, the scale of losses accelerated.

According to Glassnode data, roughly 36.8 billion XRP is now held at a loss, equivalent to about $50.8 billion in Unrealized Loss. This shift reflects how late-cycle buyers absorbed the majority of the drawdown as bullish sentiment faded.

Even so, historical patterns provide context. Similar loss expansions appeared during the 2021–2022 downturn, when extended consolidation eventually stabilized market structure rather than triggering immediate capitulation.

Retail capitulation emerges as XRP holders exit losing positions

As XRP prices declined from the July 2025 peak near $3.65 toward the $1.30–$1.40 range, transaction profitability steadily deteriorated.

Initially, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) hovered above 1.1, reflecting profit-taking as early buyers distributed into strength. However, selling pressure intensified once the rally faded and prices moved below recent entry levels.

The ratio then slipped beneath the 1.0 break-even line, falling to roughly 0.96, which signals that many transfers now occur at a loss. This shift indicates that sellers increasingly accept lower prices when exiting positions.

At the same time, transaction activity shows stronger participation from smaller wallets, suggesting retail-driven selling rather than broad institutional distribution.

Short-term holders appear to unwind recent purchases as prices compress.

This pattern highlights a market phase where loss realization dominates transaction flow, revealing that retail participants are actively exiting rather than passively holding underwater positions.

Large Holders absorb supply as Retail capitulates