1/ Coinciding with the Chinese Lunar New Year, we wish our readers good health and great success.
2/ From a market perspective, although the position clearance was completed last year, the cryptocurrency market, which has lost its heartbeat, still causes concern. As of now, the end signal of this deep correction has not yet been seen. The liquidation of leveraged major players at the end of January only temporarily created demand through high volatility, further accelerating the clearance of old crypto holdings.
3/ Looking ahead, we are not optimistic about short-term crypto assets. However, overall, we tend to view this adjustment as a continued consolidation since the end of 2024. For Bitcoin, which has led dollar-denominated assets for two consecutive years, this adjustment has not altered the upward trend since 2022. In terms of international markets, we are bullish on the performance of non-ferrous metal-related industries in the capital markets and some companies benefiting from AI-disruptive industries throughout the year.
Overview and Commentary on Overall Market Conditions and Trends
The market has little to commend. We have seen Bitcoin further decline and the market experience high-volume turnover, although we also observed some optimistic signals:
1 Despite the record-high trading volume, outflow data is controllable, and the foundation of crypto ETFs remains unshaken;
2 MSTR does not face actual liquidation or financing pressure;
3 On-exchange liquidation data is relatively mild compared to October-November;
However, the market has not provided positive reasons. We still see US stocks at high levels, continuous crypto outflows, and the persistent danger of stagnant endogenous dollar liquidity. Gold and silver show no signs of ending their trends. Therefore, there is still little to expect from the crypto market in the short to medium term, which is the main reason we did not provide a separate market observation for crypto in January.
Nevertheless, we are more inclined to view the market movement since November 2024 as a consolidation after Bitcoin's highs under the distorted endogenous dollar liquidity. For a major asset class, this movement suggests the possibility of even more spectacular future performances. In speculative terms, we optimistically guess that the consolidation of crypto assets will enter a new allocation cycle in Q3-Q4 of this year, and the subsequent market movement will be no less significant than this round of silver.
Furthermore, for the full year of 2026, we are particularly optimistic about the following global asset directions:
1 The non-ferrous metals sector, represented by the elasticity of Latin American and RMB resource stocks;
2 Beneficiaries in AI-disruptive industries, with China and the US as prominent examples;
Standing at the beginning of 2026 and the Year of the Horse, our perception of the world's disparities is deeper than in 2025 and 2024. The existing world order of production is iterating rapidly, and the silent majority may face the helplessness of having decades of effort taken away overnight by a single 'seedance'. The opportunities in this round of capital markets might be the best chance for the majority who have no opportunity to transform themselves into AI sensors. The once-in-15-years major opportunity in non-ferrous metals will also begin in 2026. Let's encourage each other.
Wishing everyone smooth sailing and all the best once again.
