Source: Jinshi Data
Over the past few years, as SpaceX has gradually transformed into a giant in the aerospace field, market interest in it has grown exponentially. However, investors should expect that after its public listing, the stock price may experience significant volatility.
According to Bloomberg, SpaceX may file a confidential IPO application as early as this month, seeking a valuation of over $1.75 trillion. The company plans to conduct the IPO in June, potentially coinciding with Musk's birthday or a rare planetary alignment event. Headquartered in Starbase, Texas, USA, SpaceX, after absorbing Musk's artificial intelligence company xAI, is estimated to be valued at approximately $1.25 trillion.
PitchBook analyst Franco Granda wrote in a report on Tuesday that the stock performance of SpaceX after its listing would resemble that of Tesla (TSLA.O) but "with even greater volatility."
Future Growth Expectations: Starlink to Contribute Major Revenue
PitchBook predicts that by 2040, SpaceX's revenue will reach $150 billion, with adjusted profits of $95 billion.
In comparison, the company's revenue last year was approximately $16 billion at most, with profits around $8 billion. About $42 billion in annual revenue in the future may come from the Starlink satellite internet business, which currently contributes the majority of SpaceX's cash flow.
This forecast does not include the xAI business. xAI is currently burning cash rapidly but may secure more projects from the U.S. Department of Defense in the future. The forecast also assumes that Tesla and SpaceX will not merge, although Musk and some analysts have suggested this possibility in the past.
Musk wrote on the X platform in November last year: "My companies, somewhat surprisingly, are moving in the direction of integration."
Musk Effect: Vision-Driven but Timelines Often Delayed
Granda stated that many lessons investors learned from Tesla may also apply to SpaceX. For example, both companies are influenced by Musk's famous public optimism.
Granda cited an example where Tesla promised to produce 5,000 cars per week by the end of 2017 but subsequently fell into "production hell" and failed to meet the target. However, when the company finally achieved this milestone in mid-2018, its stock price surged significantly.
SpaceX has also experienced similar delays. The development of its Starship super rocket has faced multiple setbacks, and other spacecraft projects in the company's history have had similar experiences. Musk once set 2022 as the "ideal target" for sending an unmanned mission to Mars, but by 2026, this mission is still years away from realization.
However, investors have gradually grown accustomed to Musk's timelines having a certain degree of "flexibility."
Therefore, when the December deadline for the autonomous taxi project passed, investors did not panic excessively. Later, when Musk achieved the set goal slightly later, the stock price rose accordingly. Granda refers to this phenomenon as the "credibility ledger," where investors automatically factor in delays but focus more on the overall vision.
This could be advantageous for SpaceX. The company recently delayed its Mars colonization plan while also applying to regulators to launch up to 1 million space data centers into orbit, a plan that relies on the progress of the Starship project. SpaceX has also stated plans to build a city on the moon.
Post-IPO Challenges: Higher Volatility and High Dependence on Musk
However, as a publicly listed company, SpaceX must achieve these goals while facing Wall Street investors and making continuous progress in the xAI and Starlink businesses. Therefore, market reactions could be very intense.
Granda predicts that if certain major events typically cause only a 10% to 15% fluctuation in Tesla's stock price, they could trigger a 20% to 30% fluctuation in SpaceX's stock. This is partly because SpaceX's publicly traded shares are expected to account for only about 3.3%.
SpaceX stock may also benefit from the so-called "Musk premium." Even as Tesla's core electric vehicle business declines, this premium has helped keep its stock price at a high level. However, this光环 also means that Musk's companies are highly dependent on him.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard previously stated:
"Today, over 50% of shareholders would say that Tesla is Elon, and Elon is Tesla. Many people, perhaps even the majority, directly link Tesla's success to Elon's tenure."
Tesla also mentioned the company's dependence on Musk in its annual report, warning that if Musk is forced to sell some of his shares, the stock price could fall. SpaceX was founded by Musk over twenty years ago, and he currently holds about 44% of the company's shares. Its dependence on the CEO is likely similarly high.
Granda stated that negative news from Tesla would likely put pressure on SpaceX's stock price, and vice versa. At the same time, Musk's political stance has also sparked controversy and affected Tesla's sales. Granda concluded:
"The combination of lower float, earlier-stage technology, and highly concentrated Musk exposure means its volatility could exceed the already significant volatility pattern seen in Tesla's history."
