The crypto market is facing its darkest moment since the beginning of the year.
Hit by a double whammy of tightening macro liquidity and technical breakdown, Bitcoin (BTC) accelerated its decline in the past few hours, not only widening its intraday loss to 9% at one point but also briefly falling below MicroStrategy's (Strategy) weighted average holding cost of $76,037 during the trading session—MicroStrategy being the publicly listed company with the largest Bitcoin holdings globally.
The last time Bitcoin fell below this level was in October 2023.
As the "Saylor leverage" myth faces a substantial challenge, market panic is spreading into deeper waters.
"Cost Defense Battle" Begins
According to the latest financial monitoring data disclosed by MicroStrategy (MSTR), due to its aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin even when it was at the high of $90,000 in early 2026, its average holding cost has been significantly raised to $76,037.
As the "anchor" of crypto assets, during the noon trading session Eastern Time on January 31, the price of BTC rapidly collapsed from the $84,000 level, touching as low as around $75,000. This means that the approximately 712,600 Bitcoin assets held by MicroStrategy, valued at over $50 billion, have, for the first time in this cycle, shown an overall paper loss on the books.
As the "anchor" of crypto assets, MSTR's stock price was severely impacted. Its high Beta leverage effect is fully exposed during the downturn, with the stock price hitting a 52-week low.
Liquidity Drain and Selling Wave: The "Death Spiral" of Deleveraging
Analysts point out that this crash is not accidental. Amid insufficient liquidity and extremely limited buy-side demand, the selling wave has significantly accelerated in recent weeks, causing Bitcoin's value to drop more than 30% from its previous high.
Additionally, macroeconomic uncertainty and the unwinding of high-leverage positions have exacerbated the decline. This crash exhibits typical "forced liquidation" characteristics:
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Support Line Collapse: Bitcoin broke below the ascending support trendline that had been maintained since the end of December 2025. Once broken, the previously dense support zone ($82,000 – $86,000) instantly turned into heavy overhead resistance.
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Volume Amplification: Unlike the previous gradual decline, trading volume significantly increased when the price hit $78,700 this time. This indicates that a large number of long leverage positions were forcibly liquidated at high levels, and the market is experiencing a brutal "deleveraging."
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Oversold but Unable to Rebound: Although the daily RSI has fallen into the deeply oversold zone near 20, the market shows weak buying support, with no signs of a strong recovery in the short term.
Next Stop: The "Life-and-Death Line" at $68,000?
In this crash, analysts are trying to find the real "bottom."
Well-known trader James Wynn warned on social platform X that the current plunge might just be the beginning of a return to the "baseline."
From a technical chart perspective, if BTC fails to reclaim the $78,000 level within 48 hours, the possibility of testing $68,000 will increase dramatically. "If the panic continues, a retest of the $60,000 level cannot be ruled out. That was the starting line before the big rally in 2025 and the market's last psychological defense line," Wynn added.
From "Frenzy" to "Reset"
This "waterfall wash" is the inevitable result of a reset in macro expectations and excessive leverage expansion. For MicroStrategy, although it has entered a paper loss zone in the short term, its long-term debt structure (mostly fixed-rate long-term debt) provides it with breathing room.
But for ordinary investors, the reappearance of expectations for $68,000 or even $60,000 indicates that the crypto market is waking up from the dream of "heading to $150,000" and重新审视其在全球宏观环境中的真实定价 (re-examining its true pricing in the global macro environment).
Author: Bootly
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