Metrics Ventures Market Watch: The Brewing Storm

marsbitОпубліковано о 2026-05-26Востаннє оновлено о 2026-05-26

Анотація

In the past month, the market has been actively trading contrasting expectations, balancing global supply chain disruptions fueling re-inflation against both actual and anticipated (Walsh) interest rate hikes. This volatility has impacted commodities and most equities, though tech has temporarily benefited from concentrated short-term liquidity. Fundamentally, as previously analyzed regarding the Strait of Hormuz situation, the US faces deep-seated balance sheet issues beyond what any single Fed chair can resolve. Hypotheses around a figure like Walsh could only materialize if AI fundamentally reshapes production relations. Until then, most non-AI-leading nations (effectively all except the US and China) risk fiscal and monetary policy collapse, rendering the identity of the Fed chair ultimately irrelevant. For crypto assets, there is currently no clear role in these dominant narratives. The market remains strongly capped by the 200-day moving average. While trends may shift from "anything but AI" to "anything but mines," this phase is dominated by the silicon vs. carbon (AI vs. traditional) dichotomy, leaving little room for crypto—though its time will come. **Market Overview & Commentary** The crypto market lacks significant catalysts beyond hype, plagued by low volume and scarce innovation, with clear technical resistance. Currently, crypto struggles for attention as global focus lies elsewhere. Assets like gold, oil, and grains are more direct hedges against supply-cha...

1/ Over the past month, the market has been fervently trading expectations, on the one hand betting on re-inflation from damaged global supply chains, and on the other hand trading rate hikes, whether based on factual developments or on expectations surrounding Vice Chair for Supervision nominee Wash. These two forces are like fire and ice, causing commodities and most equity assets to fluctuate constantly. However, technology, which is actually impacted by both, still benefits from the concentration of short-term liquidity.

2/ On a factual level, as we previously analyzed regarding the Strait of Hormuz situation, the chronic issues with the US's bloated balance sheet have exceeded the scope of what any single Federal Reserve Chair can resolve. All of Wash's hypothetical scenarios could only become reality when AI fundamentally alters social production relations. Until that day arrives, the majority of non-AI-leading nations worldwide (almost all except China and the US) will be the first to fall into a collapse of fiscal and monetary policies. By then, who sits as the Fed Chair will no longer be of great importance.

3/ From a trading perspective, crypto assets currently see little possibility within all the narratives mentioned above. We also observe that the 200-day moving average continues to strongly suppress the price trends of these assets. Even if the "anything but AI" sentiment spreads to "anything but mines," it's unlikely to change this situation. In this current phase of silicon-based versus carbon-based competition, there is no stage for crypto, but there certainly will be in the future. Rest assured.

Review and Commentary on Overall Market Conditions and Trends

Aside from hype, there isn't much noteworthy to discuss in the crypto market. The lackluster trading volume and scarcity of innovation are old news, and technical resistance is very evident. In fact, crypto assets could potentially be good tools for hedging against global liquidity risks. At this moment, it's difficult for any major market focus to directly link to crypto. Meanwhile, inflation/stagflation caused by supply chain damage clearly has more definitive large-capacity investment targets like gold and other metals, petrochemicals, and food. Looking at token distribution, Bitcoin also needs more time to consolidate and absorb selling pressure. The development of this variable is crucial. We expect this correction to persist until at least Q4 2026.

Looking ahead, we believe three events will successively become the dominant drivers of future market volatility:

1. In the short term, the market will highly focus on whether Wash will repeat the missteps of Besant or Musk, turning his stance into the next "333" plan.

2. The market is significantly underestimating the severity of substantial damage to a large number of global supply chains and the time needed for future repair. In the medium term, the market will eventually realize that local resource shortages and price volatility will far exceed initial expectations, similar to the situation during the pandemic.

3. Nations like the UK and Japan, which represent "AI non-beneficiaries + inflation first to fall," will successively face severe fiscal and monetary policy crises. We should hope that AI substitution does not occur too rapidly; otherwise, the existing credit system and national welfare fiscal systems could collapse swiftly.

One day, the market may understand that the bursting of the AI bubble could trigger a contagious credit crisis for some sovereign nations. The monetary and fiscal responses at that time might be the ultimate ignition for Bitcoin's final major bull run.

Пов'язані питання

QAccording to the article, what are the two opposing forces causing volatility in commodity and equity markets over the past month?

AThe article states that markets have been trading on two opposing expectations: the re-inflation due to damaged global supply chains, and interest rate hikes, whether they are actual hikes or expectations stemming from Warsh. These two forces, likened to ice and fire, are causing significant volatility.

QWhat does the article suggest is the primary narrative or factor benefiting from current short-term liquidity concentration, despite the broader market volatility?

AThe article indicates that technology, specifically AI-related sectors, is benefiting from the concentration of short-term liquidity, even as it is simultaneously impacted by the opposing forces of supply-chain-driven re-inflation and interest rate hike expectations.

QWhat condition does the article claim must be met for all of Warsh's monetary policy assumptions to hold true, and what are the predicted consequences for most non-AI leading nations before that point?

AThe article claims that all of Warsh's assumptions can only hold true when AI fundamentally changes societal production relations. Before that day arrives, the majority of non-AI leading nations (almost all except China and the US) are predicted to fall into a collapse of fiscal and monetary policies.

QWhat is the article's main assessment of the current state of the cryptocurrency market in relation to broader global economic narratives?

AThe article's main assessment is that cryptocurrency assets currently see little possibility within the dominant global economic narratives. It notes low trading volume, a lack of innovation, clear technical resistance (like the 200-day moving average), and that market attention is focused elsewhere, such as on commodities like gold, oil, and grain as inflation hedges.

QWhat does the article identify as the potential catalyst for a future major bull run in Bitcoin?

AThe article suggests that a future contagion of sovereign credit crises, potentially triggered by an AI bubble burst, and the subsequent monetary and fiscal policy responses from governments could serve as the ultimate ignition for Bitcoin's next major bull run.

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