"Key thresholds not yet breached, reversal signals absent—true allocation window still awaits confirmation"
Recently, Bitcoin's price broke below the critical level indicated in the October 31, 2025 report, confirming the downward trend. From a historical cycle perspective, the magnitude and rhythm of this pullback are highly similar to past bear market phases. Market focus has consequently shifted from "whether the trend is reversing" to "when the next worthwhile allocation window will arrive."
Looking back at this cycle, we identified the bull market starting point on October 28, 2022, based on our cycle framework, and projected that the cycle peak would reach or touch $125,000 around July 6, 2023. From late 2024 to around October 2025, Bitcoin has repeatedly exhibited characteristics typical of the final stages of its fifth bull market; with the loss of key support levels, the market has formally entered a confirmed bear phase.
Against this backdrop, we have combined the one-year moving average, monthly stochastic indicator (Stochastics), monthly RSI, and other quantitative models to assess the corresponding time and price ranges of potential low zones. This is to determine whether the downside risks have been largely cleared and whether the market is beginning to accumulate conditions for a shift from weak to strong.
After Breaking the One-Year Moving Average, the Cycle Framework Points to 2026
In November 2025, Bitcoin broke below its one-year moving average. Historical experience shows that this signal often corresponds to the start of a bear market, and past bear market phases have typically lasted about 12 months. By this推算, the next bull market could start in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the cycle low more likely occurring in the third quarter of 2026.
From a more macro perspective, we believe Bitcoin's "four-year cycle" is not primarily driven by the block reward halving but is more likely synchronized with the rhythm of the US mid-term election cycle. Historical data shows that the mid-term election cycles of 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022, and the upcoming 2026 have all coincided with major bear market phases. Compared to the halving mechanism, the regulatory and political uncertainty波动 brought by mid-term elections better explains the timing distribution of Bitcoin's cycle tops and bottoms.
Technical Indicators Have Not Yet Touched Key Thresholds, Confirming a Bottom Still Requires Waiting for "Reversal Confirmation"
On the technical front, the monthly stochastic indicator (Stochastics) in the last five cycles often completed its bottoming after falling below the 15% "deep oversold" zone, followed by an upward reversal within 1-3 months, signaling the end of the bear market. Currently, this indicator is around 39%, yet to touch the key threshold.
Similarly, the monthly RSI in historical cycles usually formed a key support band around the 48 level. True bottom signals often emerged during the "break below key level followed by a rebound" reversal confirmation stage. The current RSI is around the 50 level; although it is接近 the key zone, a clear "breakdown and rebound" structure has not yet appeared.
Both core indicators have not given clear bottom confirmation: the market has not yet shown the reversal confirmation corresponding to the "final concentrated liquidation."
Overall, the final low of this bear market may not yet have appeared. Historical experience shows that Bitcoin more often completes its bottoming during phases of low trading volume bias, gradual retreat of selling pressure, and declining market participation. Rapid pullbacks accompanied by forced liquidations and falling prices resemble phased capitulation selling, rather than the cycle's final low.
Under the dual perspectives of the political cycle framework and technical indicator verification, we are more inclined to believe that the truly worthwhile recovery allocation window requires waiting for key monthly indicators to touch extreme zones and show reversal confirmation. The price is currently approaching the historical low对应 range, but reversal signals have not yet appeared. Patience is still required during the bear market尾声 phase. The prerequisite for orderly recovery allocation is confirming the exhaustion of downward momentum, not merely judging a trend reversal based on the price approaching lows.
The above views are from Matrix on Target. Contact us to obtain the full Matrix on Target report.
Disclaimer: The market is risky, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may carry significant risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided herein.
