Author: Deep Tide TechFlow
U.S. Stocks: The Last "Buy the Dip" Before Powell
U.S. stock markets continued their rebound from the previous session on Tuesday. The S&P 500 index closed up 0.25% at 6,716.09 points, the Nasdaq index rose 0.47% to 22,479.53 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 46.85 points (0.1%) to 46,993.26 points.
This was the market's final "bet" before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision—CME FedWatch data shows the market assigns a probability of over 92% for the Fed maintaining the 3.50%-3.75% interest rate range on Wednesday.
But maintaining rates is never the main point. The real moment of truth is at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on March 18 (2:00 AM Beijing Time on March 19), when the Fed releases its policy statement, followed by Chairman Powell's press conference 30 minutes later. The market will repricing by 3 PM.
Airlines Lead Gains: "Contrarian Play" Amid the Oil Price Nightmare.
The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector rose 1% on the day, led by Expedia Group and Booking Holdings. Strong revenue guidance from Delta Air Lines and American Airlines boosted airline stocks. This is an extremely反常 signal—oil prices resumed their upward trajectory on Tuesday, with Brent crude rising 3%, firmly above the $100 per barrel mark.
Soaring oil prices should have crushed airline stocks, but Delta and American told the market on their earnings calls: accelerating demand from both business and leisure travelers is fully offsetting the impact of rising jet fuel costs.
Is this the airline industry truly finding new pricing power, or the market's final "bluff" before the Fed decision? We'll find out on Wednesday.
Tech Stocks Modestly Rebound, But Cracks Are Appearing.
Chip stocks contributed most of the day's gains in the tech sector, but software stocks are experiencing a systemic collapse driven by an "AI Destruction Theory." Trade Desk plunged about 7% on Tuesday after Publicis Groupe said it would no longer recommend the ad-tech company's demand-side platform to clients, citing an audit that found "multiple violations of the master service agreement."
The logic behind the software stock crash is simple: AI will either take their customers or their pricing power. Trade Desk is just the first domino.
Historical Pattern: Bitcoin Has an 87.5% Probability of Declining After FOMC Meetings.
In 2025, Bitcoin declined after 7 out of 8 FOMC meetings. It fell even on meetings where the Fed cut rates. In January 2026, when the Fed held rates steady as expected, Bitcoin dropped from $90,400 to $83,383 within 48 hours.
The mechanism is simple: When the Fed announces its decision, traders have already positioned themselves. A 92% probability means a "positive surprise" is nearly impossible. The announcement becomes a window for early buyers to take profits and a trigger for forced liquidations of over-leveraged long positions.
Oil: Back in the "Triple-Digit" Club, War Enters Day 18
On Tuesday, oil prices resumed their advance, with the global benchmark Brent crude rising 3%, firmly settling above the $100 mark. Brent crude futures traded between $100.75 and $103.21 on Tuesday.
The US-Israel war with Iran has entered its 17th day, with no end in sight. Over the weekend, the US struck Iranian military facilities on Kharg Island—the origin of almost all Iranian oil exports. Simultaneously, Iran launched new attacks in the Persian Gulf region, disrupting shipments at a key UAE oil hub and grounding flights at Dubai airport.
Monday's "False Pullback": Tankers Safely Pass Hormuz, Market Cheers.
Crude prices fell sharply on Monday, with WTI plunging $5.21 (-5.28%), as markets bet tankers might soon pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Over the weekend, several tankers safely transited the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes the waterway might reopen soon. India is trying to get six more ships through the strait, while other countries are negotiating with Iran through back channels to ensure safe passage for their vessels.
But Tuesday's price rebound proved: the market no longer believes the "Hormuz reopening" fairy tale.
Cryptocurrency: Powell's "Schrödinger's Cat"
On Tuesday (March 17), the global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $2.65 trillion, up 3.6% in 24 hours, with a total trading volume of $154 billion. Bitcoin's market dominance was 56.9%, Ethereum's was 10.7%.
Bitcoin's price reached $75,925, up 4.58% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of $57.58 billion and a market cap of $1.51 trillion. Ethereum's price was $2,363.22, up 8.45%, with a trading volume of $40.2 billion.
But these numbers will be meaningless after 2:30 PM Eastern Time on March 18.
Three Scenarios, Three Fates.
Hawkish Hold (Dot plot shows zero cuts in 2026): Bitcoin could fall 8-12% within a week, potentially retesting the $65,000 support level. Altcoins would fall more.
Neutral Hold (Dot plot maintains one cut, cautious wording): Bitcoin could see a typical "sell the news" drop of 3-5% within 48 hours of the announcement, followed by a recovery.
Dovish Hold (Dot plot shifts to two cuts in 2026): This is the bull's dream scenario, but its probability is lower than the baseline.
Bitcoin's market dominance is currently near 59%. Historically, dominance exceeds 60% indicates capital concentration in Bitcoin, suggesting the altcoin rotation hasn't truly begun. A dovish Fed signal could be the catalyst to start this rotation, pushing dominance down and altcoin prices rising disproportionately.
Fear & Greed Index: 28 (Fear). Market sentiment improved from Extreme Fear (23) on March 16 to Fear (28) on March 17, indicating reduced short-term panic and growing investor confidence.
But the question is: Can this confidence survive Powell's press conference?
U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, Fund Flows Are the Real "Vote".
Farside Investors' ETF flow data on March 18 and 19 will provide the clearest read on the institutional response. If daily outflows exceed $200 million within 24 hours after Powell's press conference, it would indicate institutions are de-risking in response to further macro uncertainty. Sustained inflows exceeding $300 million would suggest a dovish interpretation prevails.
Summary: March 18 Is Not the End, But the Beginning
Tuesday's market resembled a defendant holding its breath awaiting a verdict. U.S. stocks rose modestly, oil returned to triple digits, cryptocurrencies rebounded strongly—but all of this was just "ceremonial movement" before Powell's press conference.
At 2:00 PM Eastern Time on March 18, the Fed announces its monetary policy decision. At 2:30 PM, Powell holds his press conference. For the crypto market, the stakes are far more than a simple central bank routine. The next move for the dollar, bond yields, and risk appetite will be decided in those minutes.
Technically, the rate decision remains the core. But in practice, the market focuses primarily on what Powell says *after* the decision. The Fed will release not only its monetary choice but also economic projections. This is where investors look for signals on inflation, growth, and the potential timeline for rate cuts in 2026.
Historical Lesson: Bitcoin declined after 7 out of 8 FOMC meetings in 2025. Including meetings where the Fed actually cut rates.
The question the market must answer on March 18 is not "What will the Fed do?" (that's already determined), but "How will Powell define 'what's next'?":
Is it the caution of "We need more data, it's too early to assess the impact of the Iran shock"?
Or the ambiguity of "Inflation risks and growth uncertainties coexist, we are watching and waiting"?
Or perhaps some unexpected hawkish or dovish signal that completely rewrites market expectations for the second half of 2026?
The answer will be revealed at 2:30 AM Beijing Time on March 19. Until then, all gains and losses are just "Schrödinger's cat," both dead and alive, waiting for the observer to open the box.
