Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Golem (@web3_golem)
Just after the World Cup ended, Hyperliquid dropped a "nuclear bomb" into the prediction market sector.
On July 20th, Hyperliquid announced that HIP-4 will, in the future, support permissionless deployment just like HIP-3. The staking requirement for HIP-4 deployers is similarly 500,000 HYPE, which will be locked for 6 months. HIP-4 deployers will be able to set fee splits of up to 50% in the deployed markets. This feature will first be open on the testnet before going live on the mainnet.
Hyperliquid Announces HIP-4 Opens Permissionless Deployment
Although Hyperliquid's announcement is preliminary, and the specific time for HIP-4's permissionless deployment has not been determined, the market has already become excited upon hearing the news.
The reason Hyperliquid has become the world's largest stock token and on-chain commodity perpetual contract trading platform, even taking the lead over traditional financial markets in pricing corporate IPOs, is largely thanks to the launch of HIP-3 in October 2025 and the opening of third-party permissionless creation of perpetual contract markets.
Therefore, this time, investors believe Hyperliquid can once again rely on the power of "decentralization" to surpass all the leaders in the prediction market sector.
Who Will Be the Next Trade.xyz?
Hyperliquid launched the HIP-4 market on May 2, 2026, marking its official entry into the prediction market sector. Before the HIP-4 market launched, the market was generally optimistic that it would become Hyperliquid's next core narrative point. However, its performance over the nearly three months since launch can be described as poor.
According to official Hyperliquid data, the cumulative trading volume of the HIP-4 market over the past three months is only $216 million, with a daily average trading volume of just $10 million. Daily active users peaked at only 7,000, and total fee revenue is merely $442.38. In comparison, DeFiLlama data shows that Polymarket's trading volume in the past month alone reached $4.587 billion, with fees of $50 million.
HIP-4 Average Daily and Total Trading Volume
Not only are users and trading volume low, but the number of tradable outcome events on HIP-4 is also very limited. Currently, the entire HIP-4 market has only 6 tradable prediction markets, which is a drop in the bucket compared to Polymarket in terms of both quantity and variety.
Currently Tradable Events on HIP-4
Faced with such a vast difference in scale, Hyperliquid chose the path of reliance, following the successful experience of HIP-3. Since it couldn't build momentum on its own, it would give the stage to the community to create another Trade.xyz within HIP-4.
Hyperliquid opening permissionless deployment for the HIP-4 market is equivalent to Polymarket allowing users to autonomously open prediction market events. Hyperliquid founder Jeff also stated that permissionless deployment is particularly important for the growth of outcome markets (HIP-4) because the scope for tradable outcomes is extremely broad. The number of independent events suitable for outcome trading far exceeds the number of underlying assets used for derivatives and real-world asset tokenization.
Moreover, having the community or third parties deploy prediction market events offers greater flexibility. The launch of existing prediction market contracts is mainly handled or reviewed by the team, which is not decentralized enough in process. Team members cannot possibly cover all areas of interest comprehensively, especially for hot events in the real world. This model slows down the time from market reaction to final execution and launch.
In the HIP-4 market, as long as a third party stakes enough HYPE tokens, they can launch prediction market events according to their own standards without needing review from the Hyperliquid team. Hyperliquid also stipulates that it will not restrict multiple deployers from simultaneously deploying identical events. This will incentivize healthy competition within the HIP-4 market. Only those providing users with more comprehensive events and deeper liquidity will succeed in the competition.
Hyperliquid's product philosophy has always adhered to a win-win strategy. The HIP-3 market has already nurtured the giant Trade.xyz, which accounts for over 90% of the HIP-3 market share, with the trading volume of its top 10 perpetual contract listings each exceeding $10 billion.
Perhaps many teams are now eager and ready. On the day Hyperliquid opens HIP-4 permissionless deployment on the mainnet, we may witness a lively "battle of the gods."
Can Hyperliquid Disrupt the Prediction Market Landscape?
But can Hyperliquid really "eat all day with one trick"?
First, Hyperliquid is no longer what it used to be. HYPE price has stabilized above $60, and the requirement for HIP-4 market deployers to stake 500,000 HYPE (approximately $30 million) effectively blocks small startup teams. A funding round for a crypto project today might not even reach $30 million, and prediction market projects capable of raising $30 million might prefer to develop their own prediction market platforms.
Therefore, the excessively high staking threshold for HIP-4 deployers may lead to a sharp decrease in third-party competitors. Ultimately, only "well-funded" prediction market projects might come to attract traffic. The number of tradable independent events would also be limited, severely hindering the entire HIP-4's innovation momentum.
Secondly, the timing of Hyperliquid's launch of HIP-4 permissionless deployment didn't even catch the last bus. One major reason 2026 became an opportune year for the development of the prediction market sector is the high density of sporting events in recent years, especially coinciding with the quadrennial World Cup. Various prediction markets have been focusing on World Cup matches. On Polymarket, the total trading volume for the July 20th Argentina vs. Spain match event alone reached $83.75 million.
But Hyperliquid completely missed the crucial time window of the World Cup, which is undoubtedly a huge strategic oversight. Even the success of the HIP-3 market combined various factors of right timing, advantageous location, and human harmony. The international crude oil price fluctuations caused by the US-Iran conflict in February this year served as a significant catalyst for the development of the HIP-3 market. On the first day of the conflict, which fell on a weekend when traditional markets were closed, traders urgently needing to adjust positions and hedge had to find new tradable markets. Hyperliquid's HIP-3 market became the first choice.
When Hyperliquid launched HIP-3, it did not emphasize it was built for stock tokenization and commodity tokenization, but it ultimately gave rise to Trade.xyz and Hyperliquid's current leading position in the tokenized trading market. If Hyperliquid had not seized the opportunity of the US-Iran conflict, perhaps Hyperliquid would not have a position in today's tokenized trading market.
Similarly, having missed the World Cup opportunity, how confident can Hyperliquid be now in disrupting the prediction market giants?
