Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Ding Dang (@XiaMiPP)
On January 7th, the exit queue for staking under Ethereum's PoS mechanism officially cleared. At least from on-chain data, the sustained exit pressure over the past months has finally been fully digested, and no new large-scale redemption requests have been observed so far.
At the same time, the size of the entry queue has seen a significant increase, currently rising to approximately 1.3044 million ETH, with a waiting time of about 22 days and 15 hours. This situation is almost a complete reversal compared to mid-September last year.
Back then, the ETH price was at a阶段性高点 (stage high) of around $4,700, and market sentiment was high, but the staking side showed a different attitude: 2.66 million ETH chose to exit staking, and the exit queue waiting time once exceeded 40 days. In the following three and a half months, the ETH price fell by about 34%, dropping from $4,700 to $3,100.
Now, after a round of deep price correction, the exit queue has finally been fully digested.
Staking Queue is a "Sentiment Indicator," But Not a Price Signal?
Generally, changes in the validator queue are seen as an important barometer for observing market sentiment. The logic behind this is that Ethereum PoS, to ensure consensus stability, does not allow nodes to enter and exit freely. Instead, it uses a rate-limiting mechanism to regulate the pace of staking and exit behaviors.
Therefore, when the ETH price is at a high stage, exit demand tends to accumulate. Some stakers might choose to cash out profits, but the potential selling pressure is not released instantly; instead, it is "stretched out" on-chain through the exit queue. When exit demand gradually dries up and is even fully digested, it might indicate that a structural wave of selling pressure is coming to an end.
From this perspective, the clearing of the current exit queue, coupled with the simultaneous rise in the entry queue, does constitute a noteworthy change. However, I believe that while this change appears to form a positive resonance on the surface, its "influence" on market prices is not equivalent to the "high exit, low entry" phase in September. This is because ETH entering the staking queue does not equate to "new funds actively buying ETH right now." A significant portion of the筹码 (chips/tokens) entering staking were likely accumulated in earlier stages and are only being reallocated at the current time. Therefore, the rise in the staking queue reflects more a change in preference for long-term returns, network security, and the stability of staking rewards, rather than a significant strengthening of immediate price demand. This also means that the current improvement in queue structure leans more towards an expectation repair, rather than providing an equally strong push for short-term prices.
Nevertheless, the significant growth in the current staking entry queue is still worth attention. The main driving force behind this comes from BitMine, the largest DAT (Digital Asset Treasury) company for Ethereum. CryptoQuant data shows that BitMine has staked approximately 771,000 ETH in the past two weeks, accounting for 18.6% of its roughly 4.14 million ETH holdings.
This means this shift in staking trends is driven by a single large institution's asset allocation behavior, rather than a synchronized回暖 (warming up) of overall market risk appetite. Therefore, it cannot be simply interpreted as a "return of comprehensive bullish sentiment." However, in an emerging market like crypto, where liquidity distribution is uneven, the actions of large institutions often can, and are more likely to, provide a certain degree of emotional support and expectation repair in the short term.
Whether this trend can continue or spread to a broader range of participants remains to be seen. But from on-chain fundamental data, multiple core metrics of Ethereum are simultaneously showing signs of marginal improvement.
From "Staking Changes" to "Coordinated Fundamental Improvement"
First, in the developer dimension, Ethereum's development activity is hitting all-time highs. Data shows that in Q4 2025, Ethereum deployed approximately 8.7 million smart contracts, setting a new historical record for a single quarter. This change is closer to ongoing product and infrastructure development rather than short-term speculation. More contract deployments mean more DApps, RWA, stablecoins, and infrastructure are being launched, continuously strengthening Ethereum's role as the core execution and settlement layer.
In the stablecoin sector, the on-chain transfer volume of stablecoins on Ethereum in Q4 exceeded $8 trillion, also刷新 (refreshing/setting) a new historical record. In terms of issuance structure, Ethereum's advantage in the stablecoin ecosystem remains significant. Data shows that the share of stablecoin issuance on Ethereum is as high as 54.18%, far exceeding other mainstream blockchain networks like TRON (26.07%), Solana (5.03%), and BSC (4.74%).
Simultaneously, Ethereum Gas fees have hit the lowest record since the mainnet launch and are持续打破纪录 (continuing to break records). In some periods, Gas fees were even lower than 0.03 Gwei. Considering that Ethereum will continue to推进区块扩容 (advance block scaling) this year, this trend has room to continue in the medium term. Lower transaction costs directly reduce the barrier to on-chain activity and provide a practical foundation for the continued expansion of the application layer.
Looking at the exchange balance metric, Ethereum's potential selling pressure is also at low levels. In mid-December, Ethereum's exchange supply dropped to 12.7 million, the lowest level since 2016. Particularly since August 2025, this indicator has seen a significant decline of over 25%. Although exchange balances have slightly increased recently, the increment is only about 200,000 ETH, and the overall level remains in a historically low range, indicating weak selling意愿 (willingness/intent) among traders.
Furthermore, crypto KOL rip.eth recently posted on platform X that, judging by the gap between Total Value Locked (TVL) and market capitalization, Ethereum might be the most undervalued blockchain network currently. Data shows that Ethereum carries 59% of the crypto market's TVL, but its token ETH's market share is only about 14%. In contrast, Solana's token market cap / TVL ratio is 3% / 7%, Tron's is 1% / 3.7%, and BNB Chain's is 4.5% / 5.5%. This, to some extent, reflects that there is still a significant misalignment between ETH's valuation and the scale of economic activity it supports.
Conclusion
In summary, changes in the staking queue may not be the "single variable" determining price trends. But when it改善 (improves) in sync with metrics like developer activity, stablecoin usage scale, transaction costs, and exchange balances, it no longer presents an isolated signal but a more comprehensive fundamental picture.
For Ethereum, this might not be a sentiment-driven rapid reversal, but rather a process where the system is gradually regaining structural stability after completing a round of deep adjustment.
