Crypto’s Slide May Not Be Fear — It’s A US Liquidity Crunch, CEO Says

bitcoinistОпубліковано о 2026-02-02Востаннє оновлено о 2026-02-02

Анотація

A sharp sell-off in crypto markets wiped out approximately $250 billion in value over the weekend, with Bitcoin falling below $80,000—down 40% from its 2025 high. Analysts note weakening retail interest, large ETF outflows, and a loss of momentum. Support around $73,000–$75,000 is now critical. According to Raoul Pal, CEO of Global Macro Investor, the decline is not crypto-specific but stems from a broader U.S. dollar liquidity crunch. Factors include Treasury General Account rebuilds, higher funding costs, and a reduced Reverse Repo Facility buffer. Pal stated that gold’s rally absorbed marginal liquidity that might have flowed into risk assets like Bitcoin and SaaS stocks, leaving the most exposed positions vulnerable. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair added uncertainty, with some fearing slower rate cuts. While markets remain fragile, some expect liquidity conditions to improve, potentially allowing a recovery if dollar flow normalizes.

A sharp hit to risk markets left crypto with heavy losses over the weekend. Reports say roughly $250 billion was wiped from combined market value as investors pulled back. Some of the selling hit Bitcoin hard. Others said it spread to tech stocks at the same time.

Bitcoin Faces A Confidence Test

Bitcoin has been searching for a base. As of today, it slipped below $80,000 and is down about 40% from the 2025 high above $126,000.

Traders and on-chain trackers show weaker buying pressure. Retail interest has cooled. Large outflows from spot ETFs have been recorded, and momentum has been lost across several indicators.

Support near $73,000–$75,000 is now the zone many are watching, while some market participants expect more stops to be run before calm returns.

BTCUSD now trading at $76,822. Chart: TradingView

Markets Are Moving Together

Analysts note that Software-as-a-Service stocks and Bitcoin fell in tandem. That matters because both depend a lot on hopes about future growth; they tend to be hurt first when money gets tight.

Gold was rising at the same time, and some traders argued that the move into bullion drew marginal cash away from riskier bets. When fewer dollars are freely moving between banks, hedge funds trim leverage fast and the riskiest positions suffer most.

Source: LSEG Datastream/Global Macro Investor

Macro Liquidity, Not A Crypto-Only Issue

According to Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor. the squeeze came from a narrower pool of US dollar liquidity rather than a problem unique to crypto.

The mechanics he points to are technical: Treasury General Account rebuilds, higher funding costs, and a smaller buffer in the Reverse Repo Facility that used to soak up extra cash.

“The rally in gold sucked all marginal liquidity out of the system that would have flowed into BTC and SaaS,” Pal said.

“There was not enough liquidity to support all these assets, so the riskiest got hit,” he added.

Those shifts can quietly remove liquidity even when no single headline screams crisis. Government funding hiccups were also blamed for adding friction to the system. When liquidity is chased away, assets tied to future cash flows get hit hard.

Source: LSEG Datastream/Global Macro Investor

Different Voices On The Fed Nomination

Reports say the nomination of Kevin Warsh to run the Federal Reserve has added to the nervous mood. Some market pros worry he won’t cut rates as quickly as hoped.

Some analysts said that sentiment swung on the idea that rate relief might be delayed. But Raoul Pal pushed back, arguing that US President Donald Trump’s team will steer policy toward easier rates and that Warsh will follow that playbook.

Views differ. That uncertainty has left many traders unwilling to put fresh money into stretched trades.

A Cautious But Not Despairing Close

At the time of writing, price action looks fragile and rallies have been short-lived. Yet some analysts expect the liquidity drain to ease and for capital to trickle back once funding conditions normalize.

The coming weeks will show whether buyers return around the low-$70k area or if selling finds a deeper level. Reports note that risk appetite often returns before headlines change, but only when dollars are flowing again.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Пов'язані питання

QWhat is the main reason for the recent sharp decline in crypto markets according to Raoul Pal?

AThe main reason is a US dollar liquidity crunch, caused by factors like Treasury General Account rebuilds, higher funding costs, and a reduced buffer in the Reverse Repo Facility, rather than a problem unique to crypto.

QHow much has Bitcoin fallen from its 2025 high, and what is the key support level being watched?

ABitcoin has fallen about 40% from its 2025 high above $126,000. The key support level many are watching is near $73,000–$75,000.

QAccording to the article, what two asset classes fell in tandem, indicating a broader risk-off sentiment?

ASoftware-as-a-Service (SaaS) stocks and Bitcoin fell in tandem, as both are growth-dependent assets that are often the first to be sold when liquidity gets tight.

QWhat role did the rally in gold play in the market dynamics described?

AThe rally in gold sucked marginal liquidity out of the system that would have otherwise flowed into riskier assets like Bitcoin and SaaS stocks, exacerbating their decline.

QWhat event added to market nervousness regarding future Federal Reserve policy?

AThe nomination of Kevin Warsh to run the Federal Reserve added to the nervous mood, as some market professionals worry he will not cut interest rates as quickly as hoped.

Пов'язані матеріали

7 Months After the Collapse of Huiwang, Southeast Asia's Escrow Platforms Undergo a Major Reshuffle

Following the collapse of Huione Pay—dubbed the "Alipay of Southeast Asia"—seven months ago, the region's underground financial guarantee platform sector is undergoing a significant reshuffle. This power vacuum has been swiftly filled by emerging platforms such as XinBi, Tiger/Navigator, JinBei (renamed JinBo), Dali/Tiancheng, and FullyLight. These platforms, operating largely via Telegram and offering services like escrow for illicit transactions, have absorbed the vast user base and markets left behind by Huione. While positioning themselves as "trust intermediaries," their primary clientele consists of networks involved in online scams, money laundering, illegal gambling, and even human trafficking. For instance, the Tiger/Navigator platform explicitly provides "escrow" services for kidnapping-for-ransom operations ("强押车交易"). Data underscores the immense scale: Huione alone processed over $103 billion in cryptocurrency payments and facilitated over $31 billion through its escrow market before its downfall, linking it to Cambodia's notorious Prince Group. Since its collapse, competitors have seen explosive growth. For example, the XinBi platform has accumulated over $1.6 billion in total USDT revenue, while platforms like NewPay, OkPay (under Dali), and FullyLight Wallet collectively processed over $4.8 billion in USDT in a single year. This ecosystem thrives in regions like Cambodia and Myanmar, where regulatory gaps allow these platforms to act as critical financial infrastructure for sprawling cybercrime industries, from scam compounds to online casinos. The article concludes that the moniker "Southeast Asian Alipay" is a misnomer, obscuring the platforms' fundamental role in enabling serious criminal enterprises rather than representing legitimate financial innovation.

Odaily星球日报48 хв тому

7 Months After the Collapse of Huiwang, Southeast Asia's Escrow Platforms Undergo a Major Reshuffle

Odaily星球日报48 хв тому

The Changing Landscape: What Are Crypto VCs Experiencing?

Title: The Shifting Landscape of Crypto Venture Capital The era of dedicated crypto venture capital funds is undergoing a significant transformation. Once essential for navigating the sector's complexity and high risk, these specialized funds are now facing an identity crisis as the market matures. This shift mirrors historical patterns in other specialized investment classes like cleantech and SPACs, where initial information advantages dissipate as technologies become mainstream and integrated into existing industry frameworks. The article argues that crypto is reaching a critical inflection point, transitioning from a "building phase" to an "integration phase." Major players like Stripe, BlackRock, and Visa now engage with crypto not for its novel mechanics but as a foundational financial infrastructure. Their needs—regulatory compliance, banking partnerships, distribution channels—align with traditional fintech, a domain easily understood by large, generalist funds like Sequoia and Founders Fund. This evolution creates a "barbell effect" within the VC landscape. On one end are massive, diversified platforms that can incorporate crypto as one vertical among many. On the other are small, nimble funds focused on niche, experimental projects. The middle ground—medium-sized dedicated crypto funds—is being squeezed out. Their typical fund size makes it impossible to generate sufficient returns solely from early-stage crypto bets, yet they cannot compete with giants for later-stage deals. Consequently, leading crypto-native firms like Paradigm and Framework Ventures are expanding into AI, robotics, and other sectors, driven partly by LP pressure for better returns amid a broader VC DPI crisis. Others, like Dragonfly and a16z, have narrowed their crypto focus predominantly to financial infrastructure like stablecoins, reframing the sector's core narrative. For crypto entrepreneurs, this consolidation presents challenges. While generalist funds offer larger checks and broader resources, crypto projects now compete fiercely with AI for attention and capital within these firms. Furthermore, the long-term, non-commercial foundational work that built the ecosystem—funded by dedicated crypto VCs—is less likely to attract generalist capital focused on direct returns. The conclusion is that "crypto investor" as a standalone category is becoming obsolete, akin to "internet investor." Crypto is becoming a baseline infrastructure layer. The future will see a barbell structure: large-scale growth financing handled by generalist funds, while pioneering, speculative projects are funded by small, specialized vehicles. The dedicated crypto funds of the 2017-2021 boom, which incubated core infrastructure, are giving way to this new, bifurcated reality.

Foresight News1 год тому

The Changing Landscape: What Are Crypto VCs Experiencing?

Foresight News1 год тому

As Consensus Accelerates, What Are Young Investors Betting On?

Title: As Consensus Forms Faster, What Are Young Investors Betting On? In the rapid evolution of tech investment, a new generation of young investors is navigating a landscape where AI, robotics, commercial aerospace, and quantum computing are advancing simultaneously. Traditional investment logic based on financial models is giving way to a need for deep technical understanding and the ability to act before industry consensus forms. An analysis of trends from the "WAIC FUTURE TECH" list of young investment leaders reveals key shifts in focus. The first major trend is the movement of AI from the digital screen into the physical world. Investment is shifting from large language models and chatbots towards embodied AI, robotics, AI hardware, and edge computing. While demonstrations generate excitement, the real challenge lies in achieving scalable, reliable, and cost-effective delivery in complex real-world environments like factories and logistics. Success depends not just on algorithms but on the integration of sensors, actuators, and control systems. Second, the competitive focus for large models is moving beyond raw capability toward building an "intelligence flywheel." The goal is to create self-reinforcing systems where user interaction generates data, improving the model, which in turn enhances the user experience and attracts more engagement. Companies that successfully embed AI into workflows to create these closed-loop systems can build lasting value that isn't easily erased by the next model upgrade. Third, facing a potential bottleneck in high-quality human-generated data, investors are looking at new underlying technologies. Reinforcement learning and self-play, as demonstrated by AlphaGo Zero, offer paths for AI to generate its own experience. Scientific foundation models, which aim to build general AI capabilities for fields like life sciences and materials discovery, represent a non-consensus direction that could unlock new frontiers of knowledge and data. Finally, in deep-tech areas like quantum computing, commercial aerospace, and space-based infrastructure, patient capital is essential. These fields have long, uncertain development and validation cycles involving complex engineering, supply chains, and regulations. Investment here requires a long-term view, focusing on foundational team capabilities and the eventual emergence of market demand, even if commercial returns are distant. Collectively, these trends illustrate how young investors are adapting to a new era. They are learning to make earlier, technically-informed judgments, balance hype with real-world viability, and provide the patient capital needed to build the deep-tech foundations of the future.

marsbit1 год тому

As Consensus Accelerates, What Are Young Investors Betting On?

marsbit1 год тому

Торгівля

Спот
活动图片