Crypto traders have not yet shown enough fear on social media to confirm a market bottom, according to a crypto analyst who suggested Bitcoin could still slide to around $75,000.
“It looks very tempting to come even closer to it,” crypto market sentiment platform Santiment founder, Maksim Balashevich, said on a video published to YouTube on Friday.
A move to that level would represent an approximate 14.77% drop from Bitcoin’s (BTC) current price of $88,350, according to CoinMarketCap.
Balashevich explained that his hesitation comes from observing significant optimism online that the downtrend will reverse in the near term, which he said is not usually the case when a true market bottom is forming.
“The crowd isn't scared enough for a bottom,” Santiment said in a report on the same day.
Overly optimistic comments are “not what I want to see,” says Balashevich
“In one particular crowd-dominated or retail-dominated channel, they’re mostly discussing Bank of Japan cut rates, and bears got caught, and now we’ll continue up from here,” he said.
“These kinds of statements are not what I want to see,” he said, adding that if the circumstances were different, he would be “very confident” in calling a market bottom.
Japan’s central bank pushed interest rates to a 30-year high of 0.75% on Friday, a move that has previously been associated with roughly 20% corrections in Bitcoin.
However, Balashevich said a move down to this price level would potentially provide a “very good setup” for traders.
On Thursday, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro research, said that Bitcoin could take a “year off” in 2026, with the price potentially falling to around $65,000.
Other analysts, such as Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, are forecasting 2026 to be an “up year” for Bitcoin.
Crypto market indicators conflict with Balashevich’s outlook
While Balashevich is not convinced that the market has yet reached its bottom, crypto market indicators suggest otherwise.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, has been lingering in “Extreme Fear” territory since Dec. 14. On Sunday, the Index posted an “Extreme Fear” score of 20.
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Other indicators are suggesting risk-off positioning among crypto traders.
The Altcoin Season Index, which measures the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over the past 90 days, posted a “Bitcoin Season” reading of 17 out of 100 on Saturday.
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