D'Agostino, Head of Institutional Strategy at Coinbase, told reporters he is confident the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or the "CLARITY Act," will ultimately pass the Senate. His reasoning relies more on recent precedent than on current news. He added:
"The reason for my steady optimism is that, in my view, we've been here before. For example, the $GENIUS Act — everyone remembers it passed without issue, but it was debated up to the last minute, and its fate remained uncertain until the very end."
D'Agostino was referring to the $GENIUS Act — a stablecoin bill signed in July 2025 after an equally chaotic period leading up to the final vote. His argument is that the CLARITY Act negotiations look chaotic now for the same reason the $GENIUS Act negotiations looked that way in the final days, not because the bill is in real danger. The CLARITY Act itself would be the first federal framework governing the digital asset market structure, dividing oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) based on a token's classification.
Coinbase's Director of Policy, Faryar Shirzad, struck a similar tone yesterday, noting that the remaining work is more procedural than substantive, adding:
"We've resolved ethics issues, we've resolved nominations issues, we have a bipartisan bill on the substance — everything is ready for passage."
Markets Are Less Convinced
Not everyone seems so sure; JPMorgan analysts put the odds of the CLARITY Act passing at just 37%, and traders on the prediction market Polymarket gave the bill only a 31% chance, down from 39% just a couple of weeks ago (reflecting the extremely tight legislative timeline).
The Senate Banking Committee has already approved the bill 15-9, but it still requires 60 votes to pass the full Senate. Reportedly, Senate Majority Leader John Thune has delayed consideration of the CLARITY Act in favor of federal nominations and a Russia sanctions bill, further narrowing the window. Lawmakers are set to recess on August 8th, and if the bill isn't passed by then, the next real opportunity would shift to September, with the political landscape likely becoming even more complicated after the November midterm elections.
A coalition of Wall Street firms including Blackrock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, Goldman Sachs, and SoFi continues to lobby for the bill's passage, once again showing how much institutional investor interest hinges on its outcome.
Coinbase Wins Either Way
Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong struck a more measured tone than D'Agostino during the Q2 earnings call. Armstrong stated that Coinbase would be fine even if the CLARITY Act isn't approved by the Senate before the recess, noting that the exchange already follows many of the practices the bill would eventually codify.
Armstrong pointed to a regulatory backup plan should Congress drag its feet. He said SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and CFTC Chairman Michael Selig could issue their own market structure rules using existing authority. Atkins separately confirmed the SEC would act on its own if lawmakers miss the deadline, meaning the industry would get some version of clearer rules regardless of whether Congress acts first or not.
This backup plan changes the stakes in the current fight, as a Senate-passed CLARITY Act would have the force of law and be harder to undo under a future administration, while agency-level rules — from the SEC and CFTC — could be revised or rescinded under the next set of regulators. Armstrong's comments suggest Coinbase is hedging against a delay, not treating passage as a matter of life and death.
Armstrong still sees the recess deadline as a useful pressure tool, noting it "typically forces people to the table at the last minute." This dynamic echoes the standoff over ethics provisions that Bitcoin.com News tracked between the White House and Senate Democrats regarding enforcement language earlier this month.
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