Bitwise Names Three Mistakes Investors Make When Assessing the Cryptocurrency Market

cryptonews.ruОпубліковано о 2026-08-19Востаннє оновлено о 2026-08-19

Анотація

Bitwise's chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, identifies three common mistakes investors make when evaluating the cryptocurrency market, all stemming from a disconnect between its current perception and potential evolution. First, investors often view crypto applications like Uniswap or Aave solely through the lens of the $2 trillion crypto market. However, with the tokenization of traditional assets (like $150 trillion in equities and $350 trillion in bonds), the potential market for these platforms could become 100 times larger. Second, there's an underestimation of crypto-native companies. Despite entry by major financial firms (e.g., PayPal in stablecoins, Fidelity in custody), native players like Tether, Circle, and Coinbase retain dominant market shares due to speed, focus, and established user bases (though exceptions like BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF success exist). Third, future blockchain transaction volumes are underestimated. Tokenized securities could trade 24/7, not just 33 hours per week, and the rise of AI agents managing portfolios could increase transaction activity by 50-100 times. Hougan concludes that investors assess the sector based on its present state while the underlying infrastructure is rapidly changing through tokenization, expanding use cases, and increased operational scale. This gap between current perception and future potential creates significant investment opportunities.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, named three common mistakes he believes investors make when assessing the cryptocurrency market. He thinks the main issue is the gap between the current perception of the industry and its potential changes.

Crypto Applications Are Not Just About Cryptocurrencies

According to Hougan, investors often evaluate applications like Uniswap, Hyperliquid, and Aave solely through the lens of the size of the cryptocurrency market, which is currently estimated at about $2 trillion.

However, the proliferation of tokenization can significantly expand the market available to such applications. Hougan noted that the aggregate value of stocks is about $150 trillion, and bonds about $350 trillion. If these assets were tokenized, decentralized applications could work not only with cryptocurrencies but also with traditional financial instruments.

"People see them as purely crypto applications—just like they once thought Amazon was just a bookstore," Hougan remarked.

By his estimate, the potential market for such platforms could be about 100 times larger than the cryptocurrency market itself.

Crypto-Native Companies Maintain an Advantage Over Traditional Players

Hougan named underestimation of crypto-native companies in the face of large financial institutions entering the industry as the second mistake. He gave the stablecoin market as an example. After launching its own product in 2023, PayPal failed to capture a significant market share. Currently, according to Hougan, Tether and Circle control about 88% of the market, while PayPal's share is about 1%.

A similar situation has developed in the cryptocurrency custody market. Fidelity launched its service back in 2019, yet the largest crypto custodian in the US remains Coinbase.

Hougan also mentioned CME and Bakkt. According to him, crypto-native companies gain an advantage through faster product releases, focus on the cryptocurrency market, and an already established user base.

However, he noted there are exceptions. For example, BlackRock ranks first among spot Bitcoin ETF providers.

Transaction Volume Could Grow Dozens of Times

According to Hougan, the third mistake relates to assessing future transactional activity on blockchains. Currently, the U.S. stock market operates for 33 hours a week—from Monday to Friday during trading sessions. With the tokenization of stocks, trading could take place around the clock and without days off—168 hours a week.

Hougan says this does not mean an automatic fivefold increase in trading volume. However, the availability of 24/7 trading will create conditions for increased activity.

He named the development of AI agents as an additional factor. They will be able to monitor portfolios and execute trades on behalf of users 24/7.

"I can imagine growth of 50 or 100 times," Hougan stated regarding the potential increase in stock transaction volume.

In his opinion, a similar effect could manifest in payments if a significant portion of operations in the future is performed by AI agents.

Hougan believes all three mistakes are connected to one problem: investors assess the cryptocurrency industry based on its current state, while the infrastructure itself continues to change rapidly.

In particular, he highlights the development of tokenization, the expansion of the application scope of crypto applications, and the growth in the number of transactions. In his view, it is precisely the difference between the current perception of the market and its possible future state that creates investment opportunities.

Earlier, Hougan stated that the crypto market is transitioning to a model where the value of assets will increasingly depend on the revenue generated by the corresponding protocols.

Пов'язані питання

QAccording to Matt Hougan from Bitwise, what is the main problem investors face when evaluating the cryptocurrency market?

AThe main problem is the gap between the current perception of the industry and its potential for significant change.

QWhat is the first common mistake investors make, and how does tokenization change the potential market size for applications like Uniswap?

AThe first mistake is viewing applications like Uniswap solely through the lens of the $2 trillion crypto market. Tokenization of traditional assets (stocks and bonds worth ~$500 trillion) could expand their potential market by about 100 times.

QWhy do crypto-native companies often maintain an advantage over large traditional financial institutions entering the space, according to Hougan?

ACrypto-native companies have advantages like faster product releases, a dedicated focus on the crypto market, and an established user base, as seen in the dominance of Tether, Circle, and Coinbase over entrants like PayPal and Fidelity.

QWhat two factors does Hougan cite as reasons why transaction volume on blockchains could potentially increase by 50-100 times?

AThe factors are: 1) The shift to 24/7 trading if assets like stocks are tokenized, compared to the current 33-hour trading week, and 2) The future activity of AI agents that can monitor and trade portfolios continuously.

QWhat overarching theme connects the three investment mistakes identified by Matt Hougan?

AAll three mistakes stem from investors evaluating the crypto industry based on its current, static state, while the underlying infrastructure is rapidly evolving through tokenization, broader application use, and increased transaction potential, creating an investment opportunity gap.

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