I. Macro Level (Macro)
Geopolitics and U.S. Stock Market Performance
Signs of easing emerged in the U.S.-Iran conflict, with the differences in negotiations being smaller than market expectations, prompting a rapid recovery in the prices of risk assets, including crude oil. Against this backdrop, coupled with the pressure from the U.S. election and the potential for easing Sino-U.S. trade relations, U.S. stocks, particularly those in the AI upstream supply chain and individual stocks like Oracle, experienced a strong oversold rebound. Currently, upward repair remains the path of least resistance. However, geopolitical tail risks remain high, and trading is still challenging.
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy (FOMC)
The latest FOMC meeting minutes revealed that internal divisions within the Fed have widened compared to the past, with the "interest rate hike" option explicitly included in the discussions, indicating a somewhat hawkish pivot in the overall stance. Nevertheless, most members still prioritize the fragile balance in the labor market, and the market generally expects the actual probability of a rate hike this year to remain low.
Inflation Data (CPI) and Potential Inflation Risks
The overall CPI for March rose significantly driven by energy prices, but the core CPI was slightly lower than expected, indicating that the transmission of energy prices to core goods and services is not yet significant for the time being. However, if oil prices remain persistently high above $80, they are likely to gradually transmit to supercore inflation over the next 3 to 6 months. This could not only lead to upside risks in inflation data in the coming months but also prompt a further hawkish shift in the Fed's stance. Additionally, due to base effects from the same period last year, next month's housing rent data might show an abnormal jump.
II. Cryptocurrency Level (Crypto)
Market Trend and Overall Expectations
In the recent rebound, although BTC and ETH did not stand out as prominently as during the previous phase of resilience, they still followed the rebound in U.S. stocks. Benefiting from the overall recovery in risk appetite in U.S. stocks and continued strengthening of policy positives such as the expected passage of the crypto bill (Clarity Act), the overall expectations for the Crypto market this year remain optimistic. However, some long-term macro indicators (such as Glassnode-related data) suggest that the current market may still be in a bear market phase or in a range of repeated fluctuations at the bottom of a bear market, which aligns with Glassnode strategists' judgment of the market cycle.
Divergence Between BTC, ETH, and Altcoins
There is still some divergence in the market regarding the bottom position of Bitcoin, but the support level near $60,000 is relatively solid—this level was quickly reached due to fund liquidations, thus holding certain reference value. It is expected to become the阶段性 (staged) bottom for a new round of upward trends and is closely watched by various market participants. In contrast, the altcoin market overall lacks fundamental support, exhibiting more characteristics of "strong manipulation," primarily relying on contract liquidations and funding rate arbitrage for profits, with highly volatile prices, placing retail investors at a clear disadvantage. Therefore, the meeting建议 (suggests) shifting the allocation focus more towards BTC and ETH at this stage to enhance the robustness of the strategy.
Trading Micro Data and Capital Flows
Spot and Futures: Overall spot trading volume remains low, but the active buying volume (CVD) remains high, reflecting that some "smart money" is actively participating in the rebound. Meanwhile, catalyzed by factors such as geopolitics, trading热度 (heat) in the futures market has increased, with overall funding rates偏向负 (leaning negative) (i.e., shorts paying funding to longs), while the options market shows that panic sentiment has not further expanded.
Institutional Funds: Bitcoin ETFs overall showed net inflows last week, for example, with a single-day net inflow reaching $421 million. Looking at the recent Bitcoin ETF行情 (performance), they have maintained a trend of震荡净流入 (oscillating net inflows), reflecting institutions' willingness for long-term布局 (layout) in crypto assets;同时 (At the same time), MicroStrategy's recent pace of increasing holdings has明显加快 (significantly accelerated), purchasing nearly 14,000 Bitcoins in the recent phase, further increasing its cumulative holding scale, continuing its strategy of long-term Bitcoin accumulation.
This article is for market trend analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset investment carries high risks; investors should make prudent choices and bear the relevant risks themselves.
