BitMart Research Institute's Weekly Hotspot Analysis: U.S.-Iran Détente Coupled with Fed's Hawkish Pivot, Crypto Market Follows Suit in Rebound and Bottoming

marsbitОпубліковано о 2026-04-14Востаннє оновлено о 2026-04-14

Анотація

BitMart Research Weekly Analysis: U.S.-Iran De-escalation and Fed’s Hawkish Turn Drive Crypto Market Rebound and Bottom-Building Macro Overview: Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran show signs of easing, supporting a rebound in risk assets including equities and oil. U.S. stocks, particularly in AI-related sectors, rebounded strongly. The latest FOMC minutes revealed a more hawkish tone, with “rate hikes” entering discussions, though the majority of members remain focused on labor market conditions. March CPI rose due to energy prices, but core CPI was softer. Sustained high oil prices may push supercore inflation higher in the coming months, potentially influencing Fed policy. Crypto Market Performance: BTC and ETH followed the upward trend in equities, supported by improved risk sentiment and expectations around crypto regulatory clarity (e.g., Clarity Act). However, some long-term indicators suggest the market may still be in a bear phase or experiencing bottom consolidation. The $60,000 level is seen as a key support for BTC. Altcoins lack fundamental drivers and remain highly volatile with strong manipulative tendencies, making BTC and ETH more reliable for strategic allocation. Trading and Fund Flows: Spot trading volume remains low, but active buying interest is noticeable. Perpetual swap funding rates are negative, indicating short dominance, while options markets show no significant rise in fear. Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows, including a sing...

I. Macro Level (Macro)

Geopolitics and U.S. Stock Market Performance

Signs of easing emerged in the U.S.-Iran conflict, with the differences in negotiations being smaller than market expectations, prompting a rapid recovery in the prices of risk assets, including crude oil. Against this backdrop, coupled with the pressure from the U.S. election and the potential for easing Sino-U.S. trade relations, U.S. stocks, particularly those in the AI upstream supply chain and individual stocks like Oracle, experienced a strong oversold rebound. Currently, upward repair remains the path of least resistance. However, geopolitical tail risks remain high, and trading is still challenging.

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy (FOMC)

The latest FOMC meeting minutes revealed that internal divisions within the Fed have widened compared to the past, with the "interest rate hike" option explicitly included in the discussions, indicating a somewhat hawkish pivot in the overall stance. Nevertheless, most members still prioritize the fragile balance in the labor market, and the market generally expects the actual probability of a rate hike this year to remain low.

Inflation Data (CPI) and Potential Inflation Risks

The overall CPI for March rose significantly driven by energy prices, but the core CPI was slightly lower than expected, indicating that the transmission of energy prices to core goods and services is not yet significant for the time being. However, if oil prices remain persistently high above $80, they are likely to gradually transmit to supercore inflation over the next 3 to 6 months. This could not only lead to upside risks in inflation data in the coming months but also prompt a further hawkish shift in the Fed's stance. Additionally, due to base effects from the same period last year, next month's housing rent data might show an abnormal jump.

II. Cryptocurrency Level (Crypto)

Market Trend and Overall Expectations

In the recent rebound, although BTC and ETH did not stand out as prominently as during the previous phase of resilience, they still followed the rebound in U.S. stocks. Benefiting from the overall recovery in risk appetite in U.S. stocks and continued strengthening of policy positives such as the expected passage of the crypto bill (Clarity Act), the overall expectations for the Crypto market this year remain optimistic. However, some long-term macro indicators (such as Glassnode-related data) suggest that the current market may still be in a bear market phase or in a range of repeated fluctuations at the bottom of a bear market, which aligns with Glassnode strategists' judgment of the market cycle.

Divergence Between BTC, ETH, and Altcoins

There is still some divergence in the market regarding the bottom position of Bitcoin, but the support level near $60,000 is relatively solid—this level was quickly reached due to fund liquidations, thus holding certain reference value. It is expected to become the阶段性 (staged) bottom for a new round of upward trends and is closely watched by various market participants. In contrast, the altcoin market overall lacks fundamental support, exhibiting more characteristics of "strong manipulation," primarily relying on contract liquidations and funding rate arbitrage for profits, with highly volatile prices, placing retail investors at a clear disadvantage. Therefore, the meeting建议 (suggests) shifting the allocation focus more towards BTC and ETH at this stage to enhance the robustness of the strategy.

Trading Micro Data and Capital Flows

Spot and Futures: Overall spot trading volume remains low, but the active buying volume (CVD) remains high, reflecting that some "smart money" is actively participating in the rebound. Meanwhile, catalyzed by factors such as geopolitics, trading热度 (heat) in the futures market has increased, with overall funding rates偏向负 (leaning negative) (i.e., shorts paying funding to longs), while the options market shows that panic sentiment has not further expanded.

Institutional Funds: Bitcoin ETFs overall showed net inflows last week, for example, with a single-day net inflow reaching $421 million. Looking at the recent Bitcoin ETF行情 (performance), they have maintained a trend of震荡净流入 (oscillating net inflows), reflecting institutions' willingness for long-term布局 (layout) in crypto assets;同时 (At the same time), MicroStrategy's recent pace of increasing holdings has明显加快 (significantly accelerated), purchasing nearly 14,000 Bitcoins in the recent phase, further increasing its cumulative holding scale, continuing its strategy of long-term Bitcoin accumulation.

This article is for market trend analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset investment carries high risks; investors should make prudent choices and bear the relevant risks themselves.

Пов'язані питання

QWhat are the main factors driving the recent rebound in the crypto market according to the article?

AThe rebound is driven by easing US-Iran tensions, a potential improvement in US-China trade relations, and increased risk appetite in US stocks, particularly in the AI upstream industry chain and stocks like Oracle. Additionally, expectations for the Clarity Act and institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have supported the market.

QHow did the latest FOMC meeting minutes reflect the Federal Reserve's stance on monetary policy?

AThe FOMC meeting minutes showed an expanded internal divergence among Fed members, with the 'interest rate hike' option explicitly included in discussions, indicating a hawkish shift. However, most members still prioritize the fragile balance of the labor market, and the actual probability of a rate hike this year remains low.

QWhat potential risks to inflation does the article highlight for the coming months?

AThe article highlights that if oil prices remain above $80 per barrel, it could gradually transmit to supercore inflation over the next 3 to 6 months, posing upside risks to future inflation data. Additionally, next month's housing rent data might show an abnormal jump due to base effects from the same period last year.

QWhat is the suggested investment strategy for cryptocurrencies based on the current market conditions?

AThe article suggests shifting the allocation focus more towards BTC and ETH to enhance strategy robustness, as altcoins lack fundamental support and are characterized by high volatility and strong market manipulation, putting retail investors at a disadvantage.

QHow did institutional investors behave in the crypto market recently, as mentioned in the article?

AInstitutional investors showed increased participation, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing net inflows, such as a single-day net inflow of $421 million. MicroStrategy also accelerated its buying pace, purchasing nearly 14,000 BTC recently, further expanding its cumulative holdings and continuing its long-term Bitcoin accumulation.

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