I. Macro Level (Macro)
1. Geopolitics and the Middle East Conflict
Negotiations between Trump and Iran have seen repeated progress and setbacks, with a significant gap remaining between the demands of both sides. It is expected that the situation in the Middle East will likely remain in a state of "fighting while talking" for the next 2 to 4 weeks. From a political motivation perspective, Trump intends to push for a de-escalation of the conflict in the first half of the year to avoid facing both high oil prices and a pressured stock market as the election cycle enters its second half.
2. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy and FOMC Meeting (Hawkish)
Recently, the overall stance of major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, has turned more hawkish. The market has even begun to price in the possibility of the Fed "not cutting rates" or even "raising rates again" this year. The latest FOMC meeting was generally hawkish in tone: the dot plot showed an increase in the number of officials supporting only one rate cut this year; meanwhile, the Fed raised its inflation expectations, and Powell downplayed signals of a weakening labor market. Additionally, the previously dovish official Waller also shifted to support holding rates steady, further strengthening market expectations of a hawkish stance.
3. Diverging Risks of Stagflation and Recession
Risk Underestimation Camp: Some argue that the authenticity of the current non-farm payroll data is questionable, and inflation has been consistently above the 2% target for several years. If a significant external shock occurs, the U.S. economy could easily slide into stagflation or even recession, and the market is still not fully pricing in this risk.
Opposing View: Others believe that the U.S. is now a net exporter of energy, with far less dependence on oil imports compared to the 1970s and 1980s. Therefore, high oil prices alone are not enough to drag the U.S. into typical stagflation. The deeper risk of stagflation may instead come from long-term fiscal expansion and the erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence. However, if key Middle Eastern straits are blockaded for an extended period, and the Fed maintains a hawkish stance to suppress inflation, or even raises rates again, the market's main trading logic could shift from "stagflation trade" to "recession trade."
4. Performance of Traditional Financial Assets and Trading Strategies
Gold Plummets: Gold has not recently demonstrated its typical safe-haven attributes; instead, it has seen a significant decline against the backdrop of rising expectations for central bank tightening and liquidity pressure.
Hedging Suggestions: In the face of short-term uncertainty, it is advisable to hold risk assets while appropriately allocating positions related to the VIX (Volatility Index), as well as fertilizer and natural gas stocks that benefit from the logic of natural gas shortages, as defensive hedging tools. If the market can navigate through the volatility of the next 1 to 3 months, risk assets may still present good performance opportunities in the second half of the year.
II. Cryptocurrency Level (Crypto)
1. Market Trends and Sentiment
Amid intensified macro volatility, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown stronger resilience compared to gold, generally maintaining relative stability around $70,000. Recently, BTC rebounded from $76,000 before falling back and entering a consolidation phase. Current spot and futures market trading volumes are relatively low, while the options market is more active. The rise in put option (Put) skew and prices reflects increased market避险 (risk-off) and panic sentiment.
2. Institutional Moves and ETFs
Institutional capital allocation is showing divergence. MicroStrategy's Bitcoin buying intensity has noticeably cooled, dropping from weekly additions of ten to twenty thousand coins in the past to about 1,000 coins. However, other institutions continue to buy Ethereum on a large scale, with weekly purchases of around 60,000 coins. Overall, Bitcoin spot ETFs are still maintaining slight net inflows.
3. On-Chain Data and Bottom Assessment
From on-chain data, the profit level of long-term holders has fallen back to the consolidation range (green zone) corresponding to the bottom of the last bull-bear cycle. This suggests that the most intense phase of the decline may be over, and the market is in a process of gradual bottoming. At the same time, short-term holders exhibited significant profit-taking behavior around $76,000, creating阶段性 (phase-specific) selling pressure.
4. Regulatory Positive (Clarity Act)
On the regulatory front, resistance to further consensus on the Cryptocurrency Clarity Act in the Senate has decreased. The market assesses its probability of passage has increased to 80%-90%. Concurrently, the banking system may gradually relax restrictions, allowing users to participate in yield-bearing products related to stablecoins through indirect means. This is seen as a clear policy positive, potentially opening channels for larger-scale capital from traditional finance to enter the crypto market.
