Anthropic 被链上估值万亿美元？Jupiter 上的股权代币可能只是一个幻觉

marsbitОпубліковано о 2026-04-29Востаннє оновлено о 2026-04-29

作者:Etan Hunt

编译:深潮 TechFlow

深潮导读: Anthropic 在 Jupiter 上被「估值」万亿美元,Bloomberg、Yahoo Finance 纷纷跟进报道。但制造这个数字的 PreStocks 代币,流动性池只有 94 万美元,前十大持仓控制过半供应,且代币创建者保留冻结和增发权限。Anthropic 官方早已声明不承认此类代币化证券。真实的 Anthropic 故事确实惊人,但不需要一个 Solana DEX 上的薄流动性代币来证明。

这个标题到处都是。Anthropic 在 Solana 头部 DEX Jupiter 上获得了万亿美元隐含估值。The Kobeissi Letter 发了推,BeInCrypto 写了稿,Yahoo Finance 转了,Bloomberg 也跟了。这家 Claude 背后的 AI 公司,刚刚成为历史上第三家跨过万亿美元门槛的私营企业,与 OpenAI 和 SpaceX 并列。

但这些报道都没提到一件事。

制造这个头条的代币,流动性池里只有 94.2 万美元。不是 9.42 亿,是 94.2 万。为全球最受追捧的私营公司估值背书的全部可交易资金池,还不到旧金山一套两居室的挂牌价。

图注:Anthropic 在 Jupiter 上的万亿美元估值页面,来源:Jupiter

持有这个代币的钱包共 3,140 个。前十大地址控制了 50.55% 的供应量。代币启用了 Freeze Authority,意味着创建者可以随时冻结交易。Mint Authority 也处于开启状态,新代币可以随意增发。Solflare 的内置风险扫描器已经对该代币发出了警告。代币在 Solana 的 token registry 上未经验证。

图注:Solflare 对 Anthropic PreStocks 代币的风险概览,来源:Solflare

这就是制造万亿美元数字的工具。

一个 900 万美元市值的代币,如何算出万亿估值

算术没错,但结论有误导性。

Anthropic 总流通股大约在 9.5 亿到 10 亿之间。Jupiter 上的 ANTHROPIC Prestocks 代币峰值交易价格约 1,065 美元。用代币价格乘以理论总股数,就得到了约 1 万亿美元的隐含估值。

计算方式就是这样。但这同时也意味着,一个总市值 959 万美元的代币撑起了一个万亿级别的头条。Jupiter 上实际交易的代币只占 Anthropic 理论总股数的极小比例。这个隐含估值,是把一个极度缺乏流动性的价格外推到根本不在这个市场上出售的股份上。

据 Bitcoin News 报道,该代币一度隐含估值达 1.56 万亿美元,随后价格回落。另一个时段,它以低于 oracle 标记价格 56% 的折价交易。日均交易量在 47.8 万到 170 万美元之间。这些特征不属于一个为全球最有价值私营公司提供可靠价格发现的市场,而是一个持仓集中、管理权限全开的薄流动性投机盘。

Anthropic 官方怎么说

Anthropic 没有沉默。他们的官方支持页面明确写着:公司不允许 SPV 购买 Anthropic 股票,任何此类转让在公司的股权转让限制条款下均属无效。Anthropic 警告说,声称通过代币化证券或远期合约出售其股份的第三方,要么涉嫌欺诈,要么出售的投资可能没有法律价值。

这份警告至少从 2025 年夏天就公开了。但它没能阻止 Prestocks 继续运营,没能阻止 The Kobeissi Letter 在没有显著标注免责声明的情况下发推庆祝万亿里程碑,也没能阻止几十家媒体转发这个标题。

Prestocks 把自己的产品描述为「将私募市场带给大众」,强调 1:1 的 SPV 支持,但 SPV 细节保密。美国人被限制参与。这个工具只提供价格敞口,没有投票权,没有分红,不拥有 Anthropic 股票的法律所有权,也无法保证 SPV 确实持有它声称持有的资产。

真实的 Anthropic 故事已经足够惊人

以上都不意味着 Anthropic 不是一家了不起的公司。它确实是。

营收增长数据本身就够震撼。2025 年底年化运营收入 90 亿美元,2026 年 2 月达到 140 亿,到 3 月底 4 月初已超过 300 亿。一个季度内增长 233%,驱动力来自企业客户对 Claude Code 和 API 产品的采用。Google 投资上限 400 亿美元,Amazon 承诺 250 亿。2 月份 G 轮融资以 3,800 亿美元投后估值完成。

Forge Global 是一个有真实监管框架的合规私募股权交易平台,他们给 Anthropic 的定价接近万亿,部分出价达到 1.15 万亿。Hiive,另一个合规二级交易平台,定价 8,510 亿美元。这些平台交易的是真实持有者手中的真实股份,有真实的法律框架。这些数据才有意义。

Goldman Sachs 和 JPMorgan 给 IPO 建模的估值在 4,000 到 5,000 亿美元之间。Kalshi 预测市场给 Anthropic 在 2027 年 1 月前 IPO 的概率是 59%。即使 IPO 只按 5,000 亿落地,也将是历史上最大规模 IPO 之一。

真正的 Anthropic 故事不需要 Solana DEX 上一个 900 万美元的代币来衬托。营收增长是故事,企业采用是故事,Google 和 Amazon 的巨额押注是故事。

对加密行业真正重要的部分

在所有噪音下面,有一件真正值得关注的事。

一个 7×24 运行、不需要合格投资者认证的 Solana DEX,正在为一家传统金融只能通过季度 409A 估值和受限二级交易才能定价的私营公司,提供实时价格发现。播客主持人 Aakash Gupta 指出,一个 Solana DEX 和一个受监管的美国二级市场,对同一家私营公司的定价相差不到 18%,他认为这是 Pre-IPO 价格发现方式的根本性转变。

这个观察是准确且重要的。将私营公司敞口民主化的基础设施是真实的,它正在 Solana 上被构建。问题在于,眼前这个具体实现有一个 94.2 万美元的流动性池,存在令任何严肃风控评估都会警觉的管理权限,而且公司本身已经明确否认了这个工具。

万亿美元这个数字,是薄流动性市场数学的产物,不是 Anthropic 实际价值的度量。它在没有任何附加说明的情况下制造了这么多头条,这件事本身揭示的,与其说是 Anthropic 的估值,不如说是金融媒体如何处理大数字。

看头条之前,先看代币页面。

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