Analyst Recommendation: Looking to the International Market, These 5 Stocks Will Outperform the S&P 500

Curated & Translated: Deep Chao TechFlow

Guest:James E. Demmert, Main Street Research CIO

Host:Caroline

Podcast Source:TheStreet & James E。 Demmert

Original Title:5 Foreign Stocks That Could Beat The S&P 500

Broadcast Date:June 2, 2026

Key Takeaways

While setting a year-end target of 8100 for the S&P 500, Main Street Research CIO James Demmert states that returns from overseas stock markets will surpass those of U.S. stocks. He recommends five international stocks with valuations far lower than their U.S. peers yet directly benefiting from the AI revolution: HSBC with a P/E ratio of 9, BHP with a P/E ratio of 16, and ASML, which he would choose if "I could only hold one stock for five years."

Demmert believes Europe and Japan are taking over global growth with unprecedented fiscal stimulus, and this trend of international markets outperforming the U.S. will "last for several years." He advises investors to allocate 45% of their portfolio overseas.

Highlights of Insights

• "If investors only hold U.S. stocks now, what they miss first is diversification, and second, the amazing opportunities outside the U.S. — where prices are more reasonable and growth rates are equally, if not more, attractive."
• "Overseas markets have already outperformed the U.S., and we believe this trend will continue."

The Ultimate Global Chip Play: $ASML

• "We hold NVIDIA and Micron, but ASML plays a different role in the AI trade — it provides chip design and manufacturing technology, and it also gives us diversification exposure outside the U.S."
• "The U.S. dollar is weakening persistently. Allocating assets to stocks of overseas companies helps to escape the concentrated risk of being denominated in dollars."

High-Value Global Bank: $HSBC

• "HSBC has a P/E ratio of only 9, cheaper than JPMorgan Chase, and has a better forward growth outlook. As a global investment bank, its influence in Asia is something JPMorgan cannot match."
• "I don't think Chinese stocks are investable at this point in time, but companies that operate or can operate there, I think, are very meaningful."

Energy Infrastructure Play: Siemens Energy

• "The world is running short on electricity — AI is consuming power, cryptocurrency is consuming power, electric vehicles are consuming power. Siemens Energy's core business is helping to build the world's power grids."
• "The AI revolution is still in the third or fourth inning of a nine-inning game, it's still early. The performance of this type of stock — if you remember the tech boom of the '90s — is very similar in the early years, and this trend can last for quite a long time."

The Hidden AI Miner Stock: $BHP

• "Most people think this is just a commodity trade, but when you consider all the data center demand, this is absolutely an AI investment — I call it the second derivative of AI."
• "The world needs more copper. The more data centers we build, the more important copper's role becomes. BHP's P/E ratio is only 16, valuations overseas are far superior to the U.S."

Undervalued Healthcare Rebound: $AZN (AstraZeneca)

• "Healthcare has been ignored by the market for too long. AstraZeneca has a very strong pipeline of drugs and biomedical products, with a P/E ratio of 18 and over 20% annual growth."
• "Investors will start rotating into the healthcare sector sometime in the second half of this year, because that's when they'll begin to feel the value-add and actual contributions AI is starting to make in the healthcare field."

Why International Markets Are Outperforming the U.S.

• "It's a valuation story, but it's also a story about changing global policies. The U.S. is tightening fiscal spending, while Europe is taking a page from our old playbook — they are engaging in unprecedented large-scale government fiscal spending, trying to keep interest rates low."
• "Overseas markets are outperforming the U.S. for the first time in years, and we believe this is a trend that will last for several years."

Rapid-Fire Q&A: Top Pick & Biggest Risk

• "If I could only hold one stock for the next five years, it would be ASML. The first to double would be ASML. The first one I'd buy on a pullback would be Siemens Energy."
• "The most undervalued international market is Europe. The biggest mistake U.S. investors make is not allocating enough overseas, being too conservative. We recommend 45% overseas, the rest domestic."

Introduction

Host Caroline: The S&P 500 hitting 8100 — that's the bold prediction from my next guest. And while he's still bullish on U.S. stocks, he says some of the biggest opportunities right now might actually be overseas. Joining me now is James Demmert, Founder and Chief Investment Officer at Main Street Research. James, great to have you.

James:

Great to be with you, Caroline.

Host Caroline: You still see the S&P 500 hitting 8100 this year, but none of your top five stock picks are in the S&P 500. What does that say?

James:

It says we think the S&P can get to 8100 — a target that once looked high, and now while perhaps not as distant as before, is indeed getting closer. It also says that if we're leaning towards overseas markets, it's because we think they can actually outperform the S&P 500.

Host Caroline:What are investors missing if they only hold U.S. stocks right now?

James:

I think they're missing firstly diversification, and secondly they're missing the amazing opportunities outside the U.S. — where prices are more reasonably valued, while growth rates are equally, if not more, attractive. You may have noticed, year-to-date, overseas markets have already outperformed the U.S., and we believe this trend will continue.

Pick 1: The Ultimate Global Chip Play

Host Caroline: Alright, let's get into your top five picks, starting with ASML. This stock has already had a big run this year, why are you still buying?

James:

I know in tech, everyone's flocking to Micron and the memory chip trade. But don't forget, ASML is a company involved in chip design, manufacturing, and technology, they are an indispensable part of the entire chip manufacturing process. The company is headquartered in the Netherlands, currently trading at a P/E of 38, but their annual growth rate is far above that level. It's a great entry point into investing in overseas stocks.

Host Caroline: You mentioned Micron, so why hold ASML instead of directly buying Micron or even NVIDIA or other chip stocks?

James:

We hold NVIDIA, we hold Micron. The reason ASML is in our portfolio is because it plays a completely different role in the AI trade — it does chip design technology, and it also gives us diversification exposure outside the U.S. You also know, the U.S. dollar is weakening persistently. Allocating assets to stocks of overseas companies helps to escape the concentrated risk of being denominated in dollars.

Pick 2: High-Value Global Bank

Host Caroline: Next is HSBC. There are plenty of great U.S. bank stocks to buy, why go overseas for a bank?

James:

That's a very good question. It comes down to valuation. Caroline, HSBC's P/E ratio is only 9. By comparison, JPMorgan Chase, while an excellent company — and we own it too — but HSBC offers a better valuation and a better forward growth outlook, because you're seeing a reawakening of investment overseas. That's why the performance of overseas indices is surpassing the domestic U.S. HSBC is a significant component of overseas indices, and as a global investment bank, its business reach covers not only the U.S. and Europe, but also has a presence in Asia that JPMorgan cannot match.

Host Caroline: Still, how should investors view the China risk?

James:

I'm not sure the Chinese market itself is investable, but I do think you can invest in companies that can safely operate in China. I know this is also one reason NVIDIA is eager to open the door to the Chinese market and sell products there. So, I don't think Chinese stocks are investable at this point in time, but companies that operate or can operate there, I think, are very meaningful.

Pick 3: Energy Infrastructure Play

Host Caroline: Next on your list is Siemens Energy, ticker SMERY in the U.S. It's up about 40% year-to-date, why are you bullish on this stock?

James:

It has performed well this year, and I think that performance will continue. Let's be clear about one thing — the world is running short on electricity. AI is consuming a lot of power, cryptocurrency is eating electricity, electric vehicles are eating electricity. While we're all thinking about how to increase electricity supply, that's precisely the area Siemens Energy focuses on. They are helping us build the global power grid, not just in their home country Germany, but all over the world. This stock trades at a P/E of about 37, but earnings growth is far above that level.

Host Caroline: I mentioned it's done well this year, but its one-year performance is even more impressive — over 90%. How should investors approach stocks that have already run up so much? If they haven't gotten in, is it too late now?

James:

If they haven't gotten in, my advice has always been to wait for a pullback, buy when the stock shows weakness, or buy a third of the position first and build it gradually. If you already own it, remember that volatility in these types of stocks will be high, volatility in the entire AI trade is high. But in our view, the AI revolution is still in the third or fourth inning of a nine-inning game, it's still early. The performance of this type of stock — if you remember the tech boom of the '90s — is very similar in the early years, and this trend can last for quite a long time.

Pick 4: The Hidden AI Miner Stock

Host Caroline: Next is BHP Group, also up over 40% year-to-date. Why are you still bullish on the mining space?

James:

The world needs more copper. The more data centers we build, the more important copper's role becomes. We also believe we are in a global economic expansion right now, which means the demand for raw materials will only increase, and BHP is an excellent way to participate in this trend. The company is headquartered in Australia, with a P/E ratio of only 16. Again, valuations overseas are far superior to the U.S.

Host Caroline: So is this really a commodity trade, or an AI infrastructure trade?

James:

That's exactly what it is. Most people think this is just a commodity trade, but when you consider all this data center demand, this is absolutely an AI investment — I call it the second derivative of AI.

Pick 5: Undervalued Healthcare Rebound

Host Caroline: Last is a healthcare stock, AstraZeneca, which has actually underperformed the market this year, basically flat. Why buy a lagging healthcare stock?

James:

This is the "little engine that could." We really think the healthcare sector has been ignored by the market for too long. AstraZeneca has a very strong pipeline of drugs and biomedical products. With a P/E of 18 and over 20% annual growth, we think the market will come to recognize the value of these stocks.

We also believe investors will start rotating into the healthcare sector sometime in the second half of this year, because that's when they'll begin to feel the value-add and actual contributions AI is starting to make in the healthcare field. So, I think this will ultimately become an AI investment as well. And from a valuation and overseas exposure perspective, it's an excellent way to diversify a portfolio.

Why International Markets Are Outperforming the U.S.

Host Caroline: Alright, from a valuation perspective and looking at these five picks overall, is the logic for international stocks over U.S. stocks now purely a valuation story?

James:

It's a valuation story, but it's also a story about changing global policies. You know, the U.S. is tightening fiscal spending, or trying to. What we're doing, essentially, is handing over the growth baton to Europe — it's Europe's turn now to follow our old playbook. In Europe, overseas, in Japan, you're seeing these economies really heating up because they are engaging in unprecedented large-scale government fiscal spending while trying to keep interest rates low. That's why overseas markets are outperforming the U.S. for the first time in years, and we believe this is a trend that will last for several years.

Rapid-Fire Q&A: Top Pick & Biggest Risk

Host Caroline: Moving into the rapid-fire Q&A. If you could only hold one stock for the next five years, which one?

James: ASML.

Host Caroline: If you had to delete one from this list first, which one?

James:

AstraZeneca.

Host Caroline: Which one would you buy first on a pullback?

James:

Siemens Energy.

Host Caroline: Which one among these five would double first?

James:

ASML.

Host Caroline: If the economy slows, which one is most resilient?

James:

AstraZeneca.

Host Caroline: Which one has the biggest competitive advantage over its rivals?

James:

Siemens Energy.

Host Caroline: What is the biggest risk shared by these five stocks?

James:

A bear market.

Host Caroline: If you could add a sixth stock to the list, what would it be?

James:

NVIDIA.

Host Caroline: Which international market is most undervalued right now?

James:

Europe.

Host Caroline: What is the biggest mistake U.S. investors make when allocating to overseas assets?

James:

Not allocating enough overseas, being too conservative.

Host Caroline: For a standard portfolio, what should the U.S. vs. international allocation be?

James:

We recommend 45% overseas, the rest domestic.

Host Caroline: A U.S. stock to hold for five years, not NVIDIA, which one?

James:

Costco.

Host Caroline: What type of U.S. stocks would you avoid right now?

James:

Anything in the real estate sector and anything in the consumer discretionary sector.

Host Caroline: Is that because of interest rates?

James:

It's interest rates, and it's also about the K-shaped economy.

Host Caroline: Okay, one word to describe how you feel about the current U.S. market.

James:

Bullish, but always concerned.

Host Caroline: One word to describe how you feel about international markets.

James:

Extremely optimistic — that's two words.