Roger Lee|BIT U.S. Stock Market Special Analyst
With 21 years of experience in investment banking, asset management, and financial institutions, I have long focused on AI industry chain research, U.S. stock market macro liquidity, and options strategy research.
NVIDIA and MediaTek entering the AI PC arena, on the surface, means consumer PCs have a new chipset combination. In essence, it signifies that the Windows on-device AI ecosystem is moving from isolated trials into a phase of multi-player competition. My assessment is that this war should not be oversimplified into a religious "x86 vs. Arm" allegiance; what truly warrants study is who can weather the replacement cycle and consistently secure gross margins, cash flow, and pricing power within the supply chain.
I view the AI PC opportunity in three layers:
- The first layer is the advanced process toll booth. Whoever wins, TSMC is more likely to collect the toll.
- The second layer is the spillover of computing power and platforms. AMD and NVDA represent the offensive of x86 and the extension of GPU software stacks, respectively.
- The third layer is architecture proliferation and contrarian plays. Both ARM and INTC have potential upside, but position discipline must be stricter.
I. Industry Assessment: AI PCs Transition from Concept to Shipment Validation Phase
Gartner once forecasted in 2024 that AI PC shipments would reach 114.225 million units in 2025, accounting for 43% of the PC market. After updating in 2025, and influenced by tariff and procurement timing disruptions, the forecast was revised down to 77.792 million units, representing 31% market share, but it still expects shipments to reach 143.113 million units in 2026 with a penetration rate of 54.7%. This data suggests to me not that "AI PC demand is disproven," but that short-term timing will fluctuate, while the long-term direction toward becoming standard equipment remains unchanged.
From an investment perspective, the real challenge for AI PCs is not "whether there is an NPU," but whether users are willing to upgrade their machines for the local AI experience. If the application layer remains limited to meeting transcripts, image generation, and simple assistants, the replacement elasticity will be lower than the most optimistic market expectations. However, if the enterprise side begins to adopt privacy computing, low-latency inference, and local knowledge base deployment as standard configurations, the AI PC narrative will shift from a consumer electronics story to an enterprise IT refresh story.
II. Competitive Landscape: Chipmakers Fight, TSMC Collects Tolls
The surface-level narrative of AI PCs is Arm challenging x86, but I am more concerned with where the profit pools migrate. NVIDIA excels in GPU and AI software stacks, AMD excels in x86 CPU and GPU combinations, Qualcomm excels in low power and communications, and Intel excels in installed base ecosystems and enterprise channels. Each has its strengths, but the commonality is clear: high-end chips cannot avoid advanced processes.
TrendForce disclosed that global foundry revenue in Q2 2025 was approximately $41.7 billion, with TSMC holding a 70.2% share. Global foundry revenue in Q4 2025 was approximately $46.3 billion, with TSMC's share around 70.4%. This means that as long as AI PCs, AI servers, mobile APs, and edge AI chips continue to compete for advanced process capacity, TSMC is not merely a cyclical stock but more like the toll gate for the entire AI hardware era.
I do not believe every new product launch is worth chasing. However, I believe that every time competition within the supply chain intensifies, one should ask this counter-question: If the winner is still uncertain, who can charge all potential winners? In the AI PC line, my answer remains advanced processes, packaging, key IP, and platform software, rather than simply betting on any single architecture slogan.
III. Stock Ranking: Core Holdings Look to TSM, Offensive Plays Look to AMD, Contrarian/Upside Plays Look to Intel/ARM
Semiconductor stocks have already priced in AI PCs, on-device AI, and compute spillover to some extent over the past year. Yahoo Finance daily price data shows that within the sample period, AMD, Intel, ARM, and TSM have all demonstrated strong elasticity, but they represent different risk-return profiles. My approach is not to buy all AI PC-related stocks together, but to stratify them based on certainty, valuation discipline, and position in the supply chain.
My core conclusion is simple: This is not a war where you must only bet on the winner; it is a war where you should bet on the toll booth, the platform, and companies with certain cash flows. If the market prices in all the hype on news release days, I prefer to wait. If a pullback restores the risk-reward profile of good companies to a reasonable range, I would first look at TSM and AMD, and only then consider the elastic opportunities with ARM and Intel.
IV. Risk Disclosure
The risks on this theme cannot be ignored:
First, AI PC applications may fall short of expectations, leading to a weaker replacement cycle than imagined.
Second, if Windows on Arm compatibility improvements progress too slowly, the narratives for Qualcomm and new entrants will be dampened.
Third, tariffs, pauses in corporate procurement, and macro uncertainty will affect PC demand.
Fourth, if there is a temporary mismatch between supply and demand for advanced processes, TSMC may also experience valuation contraction.
Fifth, valuations across the entire AI chain are high; once U.S. stock market risk appetite declines, the most elastic stocks often correct the fastest.
Therefore, I prefer to treat AI PCs as a long-term industrial migration trend rather than a short-term news-driven trade. The truly professional approach is not to buy the hype on launch day, but to buy the ecosystem, the toll booths, and the companies that can consistently deliver cash flows after the hype subsides.
This report was prepared by a special analyst. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of the BIT platform. This material is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
