Today, a Polymarket user placed a large bet that the American CLARITY Act will not be passed by the end of 2026.
Trader VelvetNova27 wagered $818,130 on this outcome, while the "No" probability at the time of opening the position was 77%, according to data from Predictbook.
The recent changes in the odds for the CLARITY Act mean the bet has already increased in value by $82,078, even though there are just over four months remaining until the end of the year.
Attitudes towards the CLARITY Act bill are negative both in the crypto industry and in the banking sector. Meanwhile, its goal is to create a regulatory framework for digital assets.
In an attempt to please both opposing sides, the document is constantly being amended, but even these amendments do not find approval. For instance, the CEO of the American crypto exchange Coinbase is dissatisfied with the slowness of legislators. Because of this, the company may move its business outside the United States.
Cardano (ADA) blockchain founder Charles Hoskinson is also critical of this law and is extremely disappointed that Ripple's Brad Garlinghouse has supported this initiative.
Sentiment regarding the CLARITY Act on Polymarket has changed noticeably: in February, the probability of its passage in 2026 exceeded 80%, but since May, this figure has been steadily declining. On August 24, it dropped to 14%, which is explained by the recess of American lawmakers and the uncertainty surrounding the midterm elections.
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