Original article from WSJ, by Katherine Long, Caitlin Ostroff, Neil Mehta and Brenna T. Smith
Compiled by|Odaily Planet Daily Qin Xiaofeng(@QinXiaofeng 888 )
Editor's Note: A recent Wall Street Journal investigation found that prediction market platform Polymarket paid dozens of creators to make fake trades and profit videos on simulated websites, and used social media "water armies" for viral marketing to attract U.S. users. None of these videos disclosed the paid relationships as required by federal regulations, and the "handsome returns" shown were entirely fabricated. Polymarket stated it is committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets and plans to conduct a comprehensive audit of its promotional content.
The following is the WSJ investigation article, compiled by Odaily Planet Daily. Enjoy~
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From George Makihara's videos, it appeared he had a lucrative side hustle: placing bets on Polymarket.
In January of this year, this college student posted a video showing he won $100,000 by betting that President Trump would publicly say the word "McDonald's" that month.
According to his videos, from January to mid-May, George Makihara seemingly placed 145 bets on the Polymarket website – with a total amount close to $410,000.
But according to a Wall Street Journal investigation, none of those trades were real.
George Makihara jumps when Trump says the word "McDonald's"; however, Trump never publicly said that phrase that month, this video was filmed two months ago
Based on the Journal's analysis of over 1,100 videos, related instructional materials, and interviews with creators who have worked with the company, George Makihara is one of dozens of creators paid by Polymarket, mostly college students, who film themselves making fake trades and sometimes showcasing fake profits. George Makihara declined to comment.
Public data shows that on Polymarket's actual website in January, over 50 accounts participated in the "McDonald's" bet. All of these accounts lost money.
To attract users to its unregulated platform, Polymarket flooded social media with videos like George Makihara's that appear genuine at first glance. In reality, Polymarket created near-perfect clones of its website and then instructed creators to make simulated trades on these virtual sites, while concealing that they were paid by Polymarket.
To make the videos go viral, Polymarket recruited a social media "army" to duplicate and repost the creators' content. Even though this New York-based company has been banned from offering its core crypto platform services in the U.S. since 2022, these social media creators, paid for their work, specifically targeted U.S. users – who can still access the site via virtual private networks (VPNs).
Polymarket said in a statement, "the company is committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets. We are part of a fast-growing industry and are constantly evaluating how to improve how we engage and earn the trust of our audience." The company said it plans to conduct a comprehensive review of its existing promotional content.
Polymarket hired and worked closely with a marketing contractor to promote the site. In a message reviewed by the Journal, the contractor told its social media "army" to focus on reposting content from 10 Polymarket creators, including George Makihara. These creators initially did not label themselves as paid partners of Polymarket, though one provided a $20 referral code in their social media bio. After the Journal began asking the company about the marketing operation, these creators started adding "@polymarket partner" labels to their bios.
The Journal reviewed 1,105 videos posted between late December 2025 and mid-May by 10 creators endorsed by Polymarket's contractor. In 70% of the videos, the creators placed bets; clues in the videos indicate all these bets – totaling $1.9 million – were fake. Most videos just showed the betting process, but 118 videos showed creators reacting to winning, collectively winning nearly $900,000 in prizes – actually from fake trades; if you had actually placed those bets, you would have lost over $166,000.(Note: Polymarket has a data partnership with Dow Jones & Company, publisher of the Wall Street Journal. The Journal used only public data in this analysis.)
According to creators who have worked with the company, Polymarket instructed creators not to disclose they were paid. They said compensation typically accumulated to between $2,000 and $3,000 per month.
Investigating Fake Trades
One of the earliest videos showing signs of fake trades was posted to social media in June 2025, filmed at Polymarket's New York office. Someone placed a $100,000 bet that Powell would say "good afternoon" at a press conference, with a caption calling the bet a "valid manhood test."
The Journal investigation found over a dozen differences between the real Polymarket website and the simulated one.
The fake simulated website was called "poiymarket.com"; when the "i" was capitalized, it was indistinguishable from polymarket.com. According to a person familiar with the matter, the site was built by Polymarket. Price charts on the site were labeled as sourced from "Polymarket.com." But Polymarket's real official website does not display any source information.
Additionally, the fake website sometimes had errors. For example, buttons would show "YES" and "NIR," while the real site has "YES" and "NO."
Several videos reviewed by the Journal also briefly flashed URL addresses, revealing the sites were test environments for Polymarket engineers. After the Journal contacted Polymarket for comment, the fake "poiymarket" website was taken down.
Federal advertising law requires brands to make truthful claims in their promotions and requires individuals paid to endorse products to disclose their connections; though there remains some gray area about what is permissible. Commodity laws governing prediction markets also prohibit deceptive and misleading conduct.
A spokesperson for the Federal Trade Commission, which enforces advertising laws, declined to comment on the Journal's findings, citing the agency's policy of not commenting on potential investigations.
Razeen Khan, a California college student who worked as a Polymarket creator for several months until March, compared the videos to fast-food commercials – where the food looks more appealing than it actually is.
"We're showing what actually happens," he said. "You're still going to buy that burger."
Creators said they would send finished videos to Polymarket for approval. If a video wasn't engaging enough or was obviously fake, Polymarket would ask for a reshoot.
Haian Nguyen was one of Polymarket's top-performing creators, filming her trades on the platform from a bedroom in San Francisco. In a video posted to Instagram, Haian Nguyen celebrated winning $60,000 after betting Trump would say "Olympics."
In another video of her dancing on a beach by the Golden Gate Bridge, the text overlay read "Polymarket funds my life."
Haian Nguyen declined to comment and cleared all videos from her profile after the Journal contacted her.
These promotional videos all followed the same template: the creator opens Polymarket, places a bet, and calls the profit "free money." Dozens of social media creators posted videos in nearly identical formats. According to creators who have worked with the company and a recruitment site, Polymarket sent creators bullet-pointed talking points.
Common catchphrases in Polymarket user-generated content videos were:
Nearly 25% of videos used the word "free." Common phrases included "free bread," "free money," and "just free."
- "Bro, if this trend continues, this is free bread." – 27 videos
- "Wait, what?" – 223 videos
- Free – 278 videos
- "Isn't this free money?"
- "If I bet a thousand dollars on Canada to win, isn't this free?" – 35 videos
- "Am I missing something?" – 237 videos
- "Bro, what?" – 166 videos
- "Wait" – 100 videos
Source: Wall Street Journal analysis of 1,105 Polymarket creator videos on TikTok
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates prediction markets, has previously taken enforcement actions against companies using simulated trades to market products and making unrealistic profit promises.
The Trump administration has taken a permissive stance on regulating prediction markets. The CFTC has filed multiple lawsuits to stop states from regulating and taxing prediction markets. Trump recently posted on Truth Social that it is "critical" the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets so they can flourish, calling politicians who want states to regulate them "scum." Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr., is an investor in Polymarket and a paid adviser to rival Kalshi.
A White House spokesperson said there was no conflict of interest and that Trump's actions were in the best interest of the American public. A CFTC spokesperson, in response to the Journal's reporting, said it is important to bring offshore prediction markets back to the U.S. so regulators can oversee them more effectively.
The Hype Machine
For Polymarket, virality is everything.
According to two people familiar with his thinking, founder Shayne Coplan told Polymarket's growth team to make the company impossible to ignore online. His close friend since high school, Matthew Modabber, oversees Polymarket's growth as chief marketing officer.
In 2024, Matthew Modabber (left) with Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan (right)
Polymarket is striving to attract more trading volume than its main competitor – the U.S.-regulated prediction market Kalshi. Polymarket was initially ahead; for most of 2025, both grew in sync; but in recent months, Kalshi has taken the lead. According to data provider The Block, last month Kalshi's trading volume was roughly double that of Polymarket.
Monthly Trading Volume of Prediction Markets, data as of end of May 2026; Source: The Block
In 2022, Polymarket settled allegations of operating an unregistered options exchange, agreeing to stop offering its crypto-based trading services to U.S. customers and formally re-registering in Panama. Late last year, it launched a regulated U.S. version, available only as a mobile app. The app's trading volume is only a fraction of the offshore crypto exchange.
According to a person familiar with the matter, Polymarket is now seeking to overturn the outcome of the 2022 settlement and bring its crypto platform back to the U.S.
In the meantime, it is turning to social media to draw Americans to Polymarket.
Polymarket's Social Media "Army"
Polymarket's strategy leverages three groups of social media producers to portray the platform as a source of quick, easy money, gaining viral attention.
- Streamers: Online personalities stream for hours on platforms like Twitch and Kick, discussing Polymarket and sometimes trading.
- Creators: Social media users, mostly college students, make short videos talking about or trading on Polymarket.
- Editors (known domestically as "slicers"): People around the world – especially teens in Asia – repost videos from streamers and creators.
Polymarket hired marketing company Virality to manage the "slicer" team. Their promotional campaigns targeted Americans: according to instructional materials, as of early June, the slicer team could only get paid if at least 60% of their audience was U.S.-based.
Polymarket publicly distances itself from these ads. Based on the Journal's review of nearly 20,000 messages in a chat group for Polymarket's online content creator contractors, as well as instructional files and videos prepared for them, Virality asked the slicer team's posts to look "personal and natural."
"Everyone, if your account name contains 'Polymarket,' please rename and delete as soon as possible," a Virality employee told a group of slicers in the group chat. "Continued use would violate our guidelines and could lead to submissions being rejected. Not even 'poly' is allowed, change that too." Virality declined to comment.
Virality's editing promotion campaigns brought significant results.
A video posted by a Polymarket creator on TikTok had only received 151 views by mid-May. The slicer team reposted his video using secondary accounts, but most reposts were virtually unnoticed, with minimal view counts. But Polymarket works with many video editors to increase the odds of its videos going viral. Eventually, one video would always break through.
According to analytics provider Tubular, Polymarket's viral editing promotion campaigns have accumulated over 140 million views on TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram combined.
A TikTok U.S. spokesperson said several accounts identified by the Journal and other related accounts had been restricted for violating platform rules. A YouTube spokesperson said creators and brands must comply with legal obligations, otherwise YouTube may take action against them. A Meta spokesperson said while the platform requires creators to disclose if they are paid to promote or endorse products, it could not confirm if these specific contents violated its policies, as it had not independently verified whether these creators were paid by Polymarket.
Influencer Livestream Endorsements
Polymarket and Virality targeted dozens of videos by Adin Ross for promotion. Ross is a 25-year-old "manosphere" influencer with millions of followers. According to a person familiar with the negotiations, Ross has a multi-million dollar deal with Polymarket, averaging about half an hour per week browsing Polymarket and commenting on potential trades during his livestreams.
In at least five videos, Ross pointed out how he could trade on the platform using inside information.
In one promotional video, Ross said he could easily use inside information to trade on the release date of rapper Drake's (an acquaintance of Ross) upcoming new album.
Representatives for Ross and Drake declined to comment.
Internal materials show Polymarket and Virality promoted videos showcasing how easy it is to engage in insider trading on the platform. Polymarket has paid editors to promote at least 19 videos discussing opportunities to manipulate the market using insider information or other means.
Polymarket stated it "prohibits trading based on information obtained through theft, unlawful insider information, or in breach of trust, confidentiality, or other legal obligations." It added, "Polymarket's market integrity framework includes trade monitoring, on-chain transparency, reporting channels, and escalation processes to detect, review, and respond to suspicious activity. Where appropriate, we cooperate with regulators and law enforcement to maintain the integrity of our markets."
As the World Cup approached, some of Polymarket's creators turned to filming themselves trading on the company's newly launched, CFTC-regulated U.S. app.
Initially, these trades also looked legitimate. The app interface shown in social media videos was almost identical to that of Polymarket's U.S. app.
But a closer look revealed differences. For example, a market on the official app was "26 World Cup," while on the simulated Polymarket U.S. app it was "2026 FIFA World Cup."
The fake simulated trades continued.
