Original|Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author|Wenser(@wenser 2010 )
MicroStrategy, the "first public BTC stock" and "biggest Bitcoin diamond hand," has started selling! According to MicroStrategy's disclosure, it sold 32 Bitcoin last week at an average price of $77,135, generating $2.5 million.
Possibly influenced by this news, BTC fell below $71,000 last night, currently trading around $70,560; crypto-related stocks closed broadly lower on the US market, with Bullish down 7.99%, DeFi Development down 7.97%, Circle down 7.11%, MicroStrategy down 5.85%, and Upexi down 5.04%.
MicroStrategy's move to stop buying BTC and sell a small amount has added fuel to the fire for the already liquidity-tight crypto market. At a time when major CEXs are vying for US stock trading, the bleeding in the crypto market continues.
MicroStrategy Selling: Not the First Time, But This Time is Different
This sale of BTC is not MicroStrategy's first in history.
In 2022, following the collapse of the then second-largest crypto exchange FTX, the crypto industry entered a deep winter, with BTC once falling below $20,000; on December 22, 2022, MicroStrategy sold 704 BTC at a price of $16,776, and quickly repurchased 810 BTC on December 24, 2022, at $16,845.
This sale operation by MicroStrategy is primarily to repay the STRC financing dividend.
As a fixed-income digital credit product launched by MicroStrategy, STRC can be called its "flagship product." However, after repurchasing $1.5 billion in convertible debt last month, MicroStrategy's cash reserves fell to approximately $871 million, covering only about 6 months of its projected $1.7 billion annual preferred dividend obligation. On May 29, STRC once fell to $97.11 before recovering and closing at $98.57.
When MicroStrategy released its Q1 earnings in early May, it had already stated clearly: "If the convertible notes mature or are called for redemption without being converted into common stock, the company may need to sell common stock or Bitcoin to generate sufficient cash to fulfill these obligations." At that time, MicroStrategy's Q1 report recorded a net loss of $12.54 billion, almost entirely from paper losses on BTC ($14.46 billion); as of the end of Q1, the total cost basis for 818,334 BTC was $61.81 billion, corresponding to an average purchase price of approximately $75,537 per coin. Recommended reading: MicroStrategy Q1 Earnings: Paper Loss of $14.4 Billion, Does Not Rule Out Selling Bitcoin to Pay Dividends
Of course, from an operational perspective, MicroStrategy's move is understandable, and Michael Saylor had previously stated: "Even if we sell 1 BTC, we will buy 10 to 20 times more." Selling is for better buying. However, from the perspective of industry confidence, this move not only temporarily declares a "deadlock in the BTC treasury model," but also significantly dampens the enthusiasm for hoarding and buying cryptocurrencies within the industry, having a substantial impact on short-term market sentiment.
After this sale of 32 BTC, MicroStrategy still holds 843,706 BTC, worth $60.936 billion, with an average cost of $75,699, representing an unrealized loss of $2.932 billion. Last month, benefiting from the overall market rebound, MicroStrategy's holdings once showed an unrealized profit of $8.2 billion.
It is worth mentioning that on May 28, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor published an article with the theme "HODL" (Hold On for Dear Life), calling on the market to hold Bitcoin firmly amid the current downturn.
The "Messy Account" Behind MicroStrategy's Sale: Polymarket's "No Official Word Means No Sale" Farce
Besides the sale itself, the "event adjudication farce" it stirred up on the prediction market Polymarket is also quite comical.
As we mentioned in the article MicroStrategy Q1 Earnings: Paper Loss of $14.4 Billion, Does Not Rule Out Selling Bitcoin to Pay Dividends, the probability of "MicroStrategy selling BTC before May 31" was only around 40% at that time.
As May ended, on June 1, Polymarket data showed that the probability for "MicroStrategy sold Bitcoin in May" skyrocketed from yesterday's low of 12% to 80%, but then fell back to 58%, with over $16.4 million in cumulative market trading.
Ultimately, this matter was settled with a "No" outcome following Polymarket's official ruling. Polymarket stated, "We are aware of the controversy surrounding this prediction market. If a clarification announcement is to be issued, it will be released at 1 PM ET on June 1; if no statement is issued by then, it means the Polymarket team will not provide further clarification. Regardless of whether clarification content is issued, the order book will be settled at 1 PM ET that afternoon."
Because MicroStrategy did not issue an official statement about the sale, the event was ultimately settled as "MicroStrategy did not sell BTC in May." This once again verifies that prediction markets trade not on "the truth itself," but on "events within the defined rules."
BTC's "Digital Gold" Narrative Shaken, "Safe Haven Asset" Property Undermined
After the news of MicroStrategy's sale broke, economist, gold investment advocate, and cryptocurrency critic Peter Schiff posted, stating that "MicroStrategy selling 32 Bitcoin last week" is a signal of MicroStrategy transitioning from the "biggest Bitcoin buyer" to a seller, and questioning the source of future incremental demand.
Billionaire investor Mark Cuban, who previously viewed BTC as "a better version of gold," recently stated that he has sold most of his Bitcoin holdings, citing diminished confidence in Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation and geopolitical risks, expressing clear disappointment with the BTC "digital gold" narrative.
JPMorgan also noted in a previous analysis that "devaluation trades" for gold and BTC are heating up, with investors exiting safe-haven assets.
With prices falling repeatedly, perhaps BTC and the crypto market can only wait for the Trump administration to "love crypto once again."
