彻底改变了加密行业,5个经验教训总结

老雅痞Опубліковано о 2023-01-02Востаннє оновлено о 2023-01-02

Анотація

2022年是什么年份,这一年永远改变了加密货币。对许多人来说,在这一年最开始对加密行业充满希望,但是却被现实的数据狠狠打击了。

在其他年份,这种年度回顾我本人都不太会认真看,但我们谈论的是2022年,2022年是什么年份,这一年永远改变了加密货币。

“”

对许多人来说,包括我自己,在这一年最开始对加密行业充满希望,但是却被现实的数据狠狠打击了。

即使我自己亏的欲哭无泪,还是要明确的是,对投资者的大规模金融性的打击,大部分不是由于技术的失败。

“”

以比特币区块链为例,过去一年的戏剧性事件都不重要。每隔10分钟,它就会在其不断增长的账本上增加一个交易区块。这提醒我们,运行比特币、以太坊和其他无权限区块链协议的全球去中心化计算机网络,无论市场如何起伏,都在继续打造无中介的价值交换系统,没有任何一个人或实体可以干涉。这些巨大的自主机器的存在和持续存在。

“”

但“加密货币”指的不仅仅是协议、智能合约和密码学,也包含着聚集在这个技术混合体周围的人类社区。没有这个社区,该技术无法进入现实世界的采用,也无法促进良好的变化。

“”

不幸的是,2022年的失败多数可以归结为是由于人类的行为造成的。虽然有几个人成为了当之无愧的“罪魁祸首”,但社区的集体也是存在责任的,盗窃、欺骗和令人震惊的失信行为发生在我们的眼皮底下。

“”

在2023年我们有很多工作要做,我们所有Web3的从业者们都有义务一起去建立这个系统。但这要从2022年的教训开始。2022年的教训有很多,本文总结了认为最重要的五个。

“”

1、加密货币并不存在于真空中

“”

随着11月FTX的崩溃所产生的所有头条新闻,人们很容易忘记,FTX并不是唯一的爆雷,甚至也不是损失最惨重的,今年头几个月加密货币市场遭受的损失要大得多。

“”

由于因为美联储正在加息,这结束了过多的美元涌入世界各地的投机资产(包括加密货币)的局面。也就是说,宏观环境很重要。

“”

2、杠杆作用过大,总会导致连锁反应

“”

当一个加密货币机构的失败迅速蔓延到另一个机构时,就会出现多米诺骨牌效应。1997年的亚洲金融危机、1998年的长期资本管理公司倒闭、2008年的次贷危机以及金融史上的其他许多这样的时刻都出现了这种情况。

“”

它们都有相同的特点:对金融资产上升势头的过度看好助长了对投机者贷款的过度积累。当这些信念被证明是没有根据的时候,大批用户匆忙撤离的局面暴露了债权人和债务人的相互依存的体系,他们相互拖垮了对方。无论底层协议的去中心化性质如何,加密货币投机永远无法幸免于此。

3、DeFi是有弹性的, 但需要不断地进行经济和技术审计

“”

2022年大多数引人注目的倒闭事件,FTX、Celsius Network、Voyager Digital、Three Arrows Capital、Genesis等等,都涉及保管CeFi(集中式金融)的公司,使客户资金面临风险。

“”

这激励了DeFi(去中心化金融)的支持者,他们正确地指出,最强大的去中心化做市商和交易所系统之所以能够生存下来,正是因为它们缺乏一个能够进行这种滥用的可信中介。

然而,截至10月,Chainalysis估计,由于违反智能合约,创始人跑路,以及由于一些协议的底层代币机制存在严重缺陷,DeFi投资者迄今已损失了创纪录的30亿美元。

“”

DeFi是一个狂野的、动荡的、混乱的、不可预测的地方。为了实现广泛的参与,它需要一个更全面的审计模式,其中值得信赖的独立分析师或赏金猎人开发人员评估项目的代码安全性、创始人操作和代币经济学。

“”

4、加密货币不能靠“数字上涨”维持下去

“”

在2020年和2021年,当出现很多币圈一夜暴富的例子的时候,当DeFi项目出现世界上其他任何地方都无法获得的收益时,当机构和零售投资将加密货币的市值提高了15倍,几乎达到3万亿美元时,我们都应该提出一个严厉的问题,这一切变化中最重要的问题应该是:支撑这一切的是什么?

“”

如果我们剥开层层相扣的协议和他们所承诺的回报,我们剩下的只是为了投机而投机的行为。其中大部分是建立在势头交易上,建立在 “数字上升”的预期上。无论是跨境支付、去中心化的能源、不可伪造的代币(NFT)提供的新的营销模式,还是其他许多有前途的使用案例之一,代币的回报需要指向实际的价值案例,现在是时候回归基本原理,寻求真实世界的效用了。

5. 加密行业需要知情、独立、强硬的媒体

“”

2022年证明这个行业需要一个强大的“第四产业”来追究在其中工作的人员和实体的责任。无需许可的区块链应该被视为公共物品,就像我们呼吸的空气、我们喝的水或我们行驶的高速公路都是公共物品一样。它们必须受到保护,这意味着必须具有透明度(与尊重个人隐私相平衡)。

当然,这一点也是对我们自己非常有利的。目前没有足够的熟悉加密货币的、专业管理的、受独立保护的记者来报道这个市场。

“”

必要的透明度无法仅通过Twitter或其他地方的“大众分析师”的工作来实现。如果这个行业要蓬勃发展,它就不能再被像 2022年发现的那样极端的不法行为的揭露所蒙蔽。这需要对透明度保持警惕,并认识到记者在相关机构挖掘问题是在为这个行业的长期利益服务,而不是破坏它。

Пов'язані матеріали

In Conversation with Ray Dalio: We Are Currently in an AI Bubble, with 1% of My Portfolio in Bitcoin

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns in an interview that the current AI boom shows classic bubble characteristics, which could lead to significant economic downturns as seen in past cycles like 1929 or 2000. He explains that speculative enthusiasm, fueled by debt and overvaluation, often precedes a crash when rising rates or taxation force asset sales, causing widespread losses and recession. Dalio also outlines his "Big Cycle" theory, describing an approximate 80-year pattern where widening wealth gaps, massive government deficits, and shifting geopolitical power (like China's rise) create internal conflict and global instability. He emphasizes that we are in a late-cycle, transitional phase where traditional powers like the US and UK face decline. For personal wealth protection, Dalio advises diversification beyond cash into assets like stocks, bonds, real estate, and particularly gold, which he prefers over Bitcoin. While he holds about 1% of his portfolio in Bitcoin as a non-printable hard asset, he views gold as more secure from technological or governmental threats. Regarding AI's impact, Dalio believes it will disproportionately benefit capital owners, worsening inequality by replacing both physical and cognitive labor. He suggests that human intuition and emotional intelligence, combined with AI, will be key for future workers. On taxation, Dalio argues that wealth taxes are impractical and risk triggering asset sell-offs, reducing productive investment. He points to the UK as a cautionary example of debt, low productivity, and political strife. Geopolitically, Dalio foresees a more regionalized world, with the US showing weakness in prolonged conflicts like with Iran, akin to past imperial declines. The ideal outcome, he suggests, is coexisting powerful blocs (e.g., Americas, China-Asia Pacific) without major war.

marsbit3 год тому

In Conversation with Ray Dalio: We Are Currently in an AI Bubble, with 1% of My Portfolio in Bitcoin

marsbit3 год тому

Daily 7.2 Trillion KRW: Foreign Capital's Record Net Buying on Friday! Wall Street Says Headwinds for Korean Stock Fund Flows Have Subsided

South Korean stock market sees a dramatic shift in fund flows. On July 31, foreign investors made a record net purchase of approximately KRW 7.2 trillion in KOSPI stocks, marking a fundamental reversal from the persistent large-scale net outflows seen in previous months. This contributed to a significant narrowing of foreign net selling in July to KRW 9.8 trillion, down sharply from KRW 48.4 trillion in June and KRW 44.5 trillion in May. Simultaneously, domestic institutional pressure eased. South Korean pension funds and asset managers turned to a net buying position in July, purchasing KRW 1.0 trillion worth of KOSPI shares, contrasting with net sales in May and June. Market volatility is expected to be dampened by new financial regulations. Effective July 31, the Financial Services Commission tightened access for retail investors to single-stock leveraged ETFs by raising the minimum cash deposit requirement. Trading volumes for these products subsequently dropped to about 50% of their monthly average. Citigroup Research maintains its year-end KOSPI target of 10,000 points. The firm cites several supportive factors: the substantial easing of headwinds from capital outflows, a robust fundamental outlook for the semiconductor sector, historically low market valuations, strong economic fundamentals, and the potential for policy support from financial authorities if needed.

marsbit3 год тому

Daily 7.2 Trillion KRW: Foreign Capital's Record Net Buying on Friday! Wall Street Says Headwinds for Korean Stock Fund Flows Have Subsided

marsbit3 год тому

Thanks to Dice Rolls, Bitcoin Keys Are Stored Offline, But Not Everyone Will Do It

The article discusses using dice rolls to generate secure Bitcoin wallet seeds, providing entropy independent of potentially flawed hardware random number generators. It explains that each fair dice roll offers about 2.585 bits of entropy, with around 50 rolls needed for a standard 12-word seed phrase and 99+ recommended for higher security. This method gained attention after a vulnerability was revealed in some Coldcard hardware wallets, where a faulty firmware RNG (dating back to 2021) compromised generated keys. The analysis notes that while a dice-generated main seed was safe from this specific flaw, other Coldcard functions (like creating paper wallets, backup keys, or passwords) could still be vulnerable if they used the defective RNG. The piece argues that while dice-based entropy is technically robust, the manual process is error-prone, tedious, and unrealistic for most new users, who might make mistakes in recording or inputting rolls. It concludes that while manual entropy generation should remain an option for advanced users, the long-term goal is to develop reliable, user-friendly hardware and software that securely generates randomness without requiring specialized knowledge. Coldcard users are advised to check their firmware version and replace any secondary secrets (like paper wallet keys) created with vulnerable devices, while also considering multi-signature setups with devices from different manufacturers for added security.

cryptonews.ru9 год тому

Thanks to Dice Rolls, Bitcoin Keys Are Stored Offline, But Not Everyone Will Do It

cryptonews.ru9 год тому

Торгівля

Спот
活动图片