85% of Tokens Launched in 2025 Have Fallen Below Their Market Entry Price

RBK-cryptoОпубліковано о 2025-12-23Востаннє оновлено о 2025-12-23

Анотація

According to an analysis by Memento Research, 85% of tokens launched in 2025 have fallen below their initial listing price. The study of 118 token generation events (TGEs) found that 84.7% of assets are trading below their starting valuation, with two-thirds losing over 50% of their value. A significant 38% have experienced a devastating 70-90% decline, entering what analysts term the "token graveyard zone." Notably, all 28 tokens with a high initial fully diluted valuation (FDV) of over $1 billion are in the red, with a median decline of 81%. The worst-performing category was infrastructure projects, which formed the bulk of the sample and fell an average of 72-82%. The DeFi sector performed relatively better, with 31.6% of its tokens still trading above their TGE price. The report concludes that purchasing tokens at launch in 2025 was largely unprofitable. Success was limited to assets with a low starting valuation; in this group, 40% traded above their launch price. For all other segments, the median decline ranged from 70% to 83%, indicating that the TGE often marked a price peak followed by a sharp correction.

Analysts at Memento Research analyzed 118 token launches (token generation event, TGE) since the beginning of the year and recorded massive declines. According to their data, 84.7% of assets are trading below their initial valuation.

Two-thirds of the tokens in the sample have lost more than 50% of their value, and 38% have a current market capitalization that is 70–90% below the initial level. The authors refer to this range as the "token graveyard zone" (highlighted in red on the chart). The authors rely on data from aggregators CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap, their own calculations, and data from public blockchains, with prices recorded as of December 20, 2025.

Large TGEs with inflated initial valuations performed particularly poorly. Out of 28 launches with an initial valuation (fully diluted value, FDV) of $1 billion or more, none are in profit. The median decline was about 81%.

The authors analyzed token launches in categories such as infrastructure projects (Infra, 46 launches in 2025), artificial intelligence (AI, 23 tokens), decentralized financial platforms (DeFi, 19 tokens), consumer services (Consumer, 14 tokens), gaming projects (Gaming, 6 tokens), stablecoins and related projects (Stablecoin, 4 tokens), decentralized futures platforms (Perp DEX, 3 tokens), data providers (Data, 2 tokens), and one token from a scientific crypto project (DeSi). For the 30 largest tokens, the median initial valuation was $1.58 billion, while for another 28, it was around $680 million.

The largest losses were recorded in infrastructure projects. They made up the bulk of the sample and showed an average decline of 72% to 82%. The DeFi sector performed relatively better, with 31.6% of tokens trading above their TGE price. The perp DEX segment stands out from the rest with an average increase of 213%, but the result is heavily skewed by the launch of the Aster DEX platform, whose token ASTER surged in price due to prolonged aggressive support from the largest crypto exchange Binance and its founder Changpeng Zhao.

Projects with high initial valuations (FDV) failed to meet expectations and were revalued by the market significantly downward. This particularly affected infrastructure and AI-focused projects, which accounted for the majority of the decline.

Buying tokens at launch in 2025 meant betting on rare exceptions, the authors write. Most launches turned out to be unprofitable, and only assets with low initial valuations showed significantly better results. In this group, 40% of tokens traded above their launch price, and the median decline was about 26 percent. For all other segments, the average declines ranged from 70% to 83%, and there were almost no successful examples.

Thus, for most tokens in 2025, TGE was an unfortunate entry point. The median decline was about 70%, and in the case of inflated initial valuations, the market perceived the token launch as a local price peak, followed by a sharp decline.

Experts allowed for a Bitcoin drop to as low as $56k. Where did this conclusion come from?

Bitcoin's price fell short of 2025 forecasts. Who predicted what and why?

Coins of the year. How and why Tron's TRX token outperformed almost the entire crypto market.

Пов'язані питання

QAccording to the analysis, what percentage of tokens launched in 2025 are trading below their initial valuation?

A84.7% of the tokens are trading below their initial valuation.

QWhat is the median drawdown for tokens with a high initial fully diluted value (FDV) of over $1 billion?

AThe median drawdown for tokens with an initial FDV of over $1 billion is approximately 81%.

QWhich token category performed the worst in terms of price decline, and what was the average drop?

AInfrastructure projects (Infra) performed the worst, showing an average price decline between 72% and 82%.

QWhich specific sector showed an average price increase of 213%, and what was the primary reason for this outlier performance?

AThe perp DEX sector showed an average increase of 213%, primarily due to the strong performance of the Aster DEX token, which was aggressively supported by the Binance exchange and its founder, Changpeng Zhao.

QWhat was the key factor that distinguished the performance of tokens with a low initial valuation from the rest?

A40% of tokens with a low initial valuation traded above their launch price, with a median decline of only about 26%, significantly outperforming other segments which saw average declines of 70% to 83%.

Пов'язані матеріали

Annual Salary of Millions Competing for Electricians, Meta Rushes to Open Its Own Technical School

The AI boom is facing an unexpected bottleneck: a severe shortage of skilled construction workers and electricians. As tech giants like Meta, OpenAI, and Alphabet race to build massive data centers—such as OpenAI's $16 billion "Stargate" project—they are hitting a critical labor wall. The U.S. needs an estimated 130,000 more electricians, 240,000 construction workers, and 150,000 supervisors by 2030 for AI infrastructure alone, but tens of thousands of electrician jobs go unfilled each year. While AI companies offer high premiums, with electricians earning up to $280,000 annually, worker scarcity still causes massive losses—delays on a single project can cost $14.2 million per month. The complexity of building AI data centers, which require immense power (equivalent to powering hundreds of thousands of homes), sophisticated electrical systems, and advanced liquid cooling solutions, demands highly skilled technicians who are in short supply. To combat this, companies are investing heavily in training. Meta has committed $115 million to a free training school offering tuition, housing, and stipends, targeting 5,000 new workers. OpenAI is partnering with unions to secure skilled labor. These efforts are paying off, with a significant rise in Gen Z interest in trade schools over college. However, the power demands are staggering. AI data centers are driving a rapid surge in electricity consumption, projected to account for up to 12% of U.S. power use by 2028 and raising costs for consumers. Furthermore, the construction boom is project-based, leading to a potential future glut of trained workers once building peaks, which could depress wages industry-wide. The race for AI supremacy now depends as much on skilled hands as on advanced chips.

marsbit31 хв тому

Annual Salary of Millions Competing for Electricians, Meta Rushes to Open Its Own Technical School

marsbit31 хв тому

OpenAI No Longer Sells Its Most Expensive Model for Profit

OpenAI is shifting its business strategy away from promoting its most expensive, flagship models for every task. Recent price cuts—80% for GPT-5.6 Luna and 20% for Terra—signal a deeper change: the company now actively advises users that many tasks don't require the most powerful model. Instead, OpenAI recommends a tiered approach: use the high-end GPT-5.6 Sol for complex planning and analysis, then delegate execution to cheaper models like Luna. This mirrors moves by Anthropic, which recently launched Claude Opus 5 at half the price of its top model, Fable 5. Both companies are de-emphasizing flagship models as primary revenue drivers, using them instead for brand prestige and technological showcases. The industry is entering a "mass-market" phase, similar to automotive, where high-volume, cost-effective models handle daily operations and drive scale. OpenAI's price reductions are partly enabled by AI models themselves optimizing underlying code and infrastructure, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of efficiency gains and cost reduction. Competition is shifting from "who is smartest" to "who offers the best value." The goal is no longer selling individual models but fostering widespread API adoption and ecosystem lock-in. By making AI calls cheap and ubiquitous, companies like OpenAI aim to become the indispensable, utility-like infrastructure powering automated workflows—the "water and electricity" of software, quietly embedded everywhere.

marsbit32 хв тому

OpenAI No Longer Sells Its Most Expensive Model for Profit

marsbit32 хв тому

Suspected 4th Coldcard attack wave sweeps 389 Bitcoin: Galaxy’s Thorn

Coldcard hardware wallet users are facing a new wave of coordinated attacks targeting a firmware flaw, with researcher Alex Thorn flagging 218 recent transactions moving approximately 389 Bitcoin from potentially impacted addresses. The attack pattern shows a high rate of transactions targeting unique victim addresses, differing from previous waves. The vulnerability, which causes affected devices to generate weaker wallet seeds, is estimated to have impacted over 1,100 wallets, leading to around $90 million in Bitcoin stolen. Thorn advises affected users who control their keys may attempt to move funds with a higher-fee transaction before the attacker's transactions are confirmed.

cointelegraph39 хв тому

Suspected 4th Coldcard attack wave sweeps 389 Bitcoin: Galaxy’s Thorn

cointelegraph39 хв тому

Bitcoin Miners Are Waving the White Flag, But Their Stocks Are Soaring

Bitcoin miners are capitulating as evidenced by a sustained drop in network hash rate and a record-steep 19.9% decline in mining difficulty, signaling the shuttering of unprofitable machines. However, in a significant divergence from historical patterns, the stocks of publicly traded mining companies have soared, with one major player gaining over 430% in the past year, even as BTC's price fell roughly 46%. This surge is largely attributed to these companies pivoting toward the more lucrative AI narrative. Simultaneously, miners face a structural squeeze. Daily block reward revenue in BTC terms has hit a new all-time low following the latest halving, with current dollar-denominated daily revenue around $30 million compared to a longer-term average of ~$40 million. Fee revenue remains negligible, covering less than one block's subsidy over a 28-day average and accounting for only about ten minutes of the network's daily security budget. This capitulation cycle is unique: miner stress and crypto price weakness have decoupled due to alternative revenue streams (AI), while the long-term reliance on increasing bitcoin prices to offset shrinking subsidies continues, with fee income still far from filling the impending gap.

marsbit42 хв тому

Bitcoin Miners Are Waving the White Flag, But Their Stocks Are Soaring

marsbit42 хв тому

Will the Fed Definitely Raise Interest Rates in September? How Will Crypto and U.S. Stocks Withstand the Pressure?

The market's expectation for a September Fed rate hike surged dramatically in early August, jumping from under 50% to over 80% within a week. This shift followed a contentious July FOMC meeting, where a 9-3 vote to hold rates revealed growing dissent from hawkish members advocating for an immediate hike to combat persistent inflation. The primary catalyst for this repricing is rising oil prices, driven by renewed geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, which threaten global supply. Energy costs directly influence inflation metrics, making the upcoming July CPI report (due August 12th) a critical data point. If it shows inflation reaccelerating, the probability of a September hike will solidify. For Bitcoin and crypto assets, this is typically bearish news. Bitcoin continues to behave as a high-beta, liquidity-sensitive risk asset. A rate hike raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and could drive capital toward money markets, pressuring crypto prices in the short term. However, historical patterns suggest that if a hike is perceived as the end of a tightening cycle rather than the start, any negative price impact may be brief. U.S. stocks, particularly crypto-linked equities like Coinbase and growth-oriented tech stocks, are also vulnerable. Higher rates increase discount rates in valuation models, putting pressure on high-multiple companies. This coincides with a pivotal tech earnings season where investor focus has shifted from massive AI capital expenditure to tangible revenue and cash flow generation. Companies with negative cash flow and weak growth narratives could face heightened volatility if borrowing costs rise in September. In summary, a September Fed hike has evolved into a mainstream market scenario. Key factors to watch are oil prices, the July CPI report, and Fed communications, which will determine the final decision and its impact on volatile crypto and equity markets.

marsbit42 хв тому

Will the Fed Definitely Raise Interest Rates in September? How Will Crypto and U.S. Stocks Withstand the Pressure?

marsbit42 хв тому

Торгівля

Спот