反弹行情未激发单边情绪,多空拉锯状况延续 | CFTC 比特币持仓周报

FОпубліковано о 2022-10-31Востаннє оновлено о 2022-11-01

Анотація

10 月 29 日公布的最新一期 CFTC CME 比特币持仓周报( 10 月 19 日 - 10 月 25 日)显示,比特币标准合约总持仓量自 14228 上升至 14854。

10 月 29 日公布的最新一期 CFTC CME 比特币持仓周报( 10 月 19 日 - 10 月 25 日)显示,比特币标准合约总持仓量自 14228 上升至 14854,最新统计周期内比特币价格出现了小幅上涨,不过市场波动性仍然保持在一个非常低的水准之上,市场总持仓量变化幅度也并不大。

规模最大的经销商账户多头头寸自 258 下降至 237,空头头寸自 2568 下降至 2330,规模最大的机构账户在最新统计周期内进行了多空双向同步减持,过去两个统计周期内的持续双边增持势头暂时告一段落,不过考虑到这类账户的多空持仓比控制的非常精准,因此这种减持并没有抛出特别明显的单边倾向。可以认为大型机构在行情的横向拉锯过程中进行了适当的风控减持,但是由于没有新的多空判断信号出现,因此过去一段时间里这类账户的偏多态度并未被「破坏」,目前无法以这种减持作为大型机构转空的判断依据。

资管机构多头头寸自 5992 上升至 6309,该数值创出近九个统计周期新高,空头头寸自 1158 下降至 847,该数值创出近 21 个统计周期新低,资管机构连续第二个统计周期进行了清晰的净多调仓,而且在最新统计周期内的调仓相比上一统计周期而言更为激进,上一期周报中我们曾因为这类账户非常「生硬」的转向而对其多空偏好持保留态度,但是随着最新统计周期的调仓结果出现,资管机构目前已经彻底站到了多方的阵营之中。一定意义上来说,行情在最新统计周期内的上涨表现,也巩固了这类账户看涨的态度。

杠杆基金多头头寸自 2091 上升至 3525,自近 10 周低点反弹,空头头寸自 7219 上升至 7875。杠杆基金在最新统计周期内进行了多空双向同步增持,不过增持幅度并未能抹平前一统计周期双向同步减持的幅度。对于这类账户来说,来回的增减仓又把「纠结」两个字进一步放大了,杠杆基金目前对于后市缺乏明确判断。

大户账户多头头寸自 2489 下降至 1239,该数值单周腰斩并且创出了近十个统计周期新低,空头头寸自 528 上升至 615,大户账户在最新统计周期内进行了态度激烈的净空调仓。由于大户在过去几个统计周期内已经表达出了比较明确的看空态度,加之最新统计周期内的这种调仓是建立在行情出现反弹的基础之上的,可以认为这类账户对于后市的看空态度相当明确。

散户多头头寸自 1404 下降至 1176,空头头寸自 761 上升至 819,散户在最新统计周期内进行了净空调仓,调仓方向再度反转。散户做出这种与行情走向相悖的净调仓选择有些令人意外,不过这种摇摆不定的调仓状况实际上表达出了与杠杆基金相似的「纠结」,不建议对于散户的这种仓位调整做过度看空的解读。

比特币微型合约总持仓量自 22416 上升至 23882。

经销商账户多头头寸自 174 上升至 227,空头头寸自 565 上升至 881,经销商账户在微型合约中进行了多空双向同步增持,与标准合约的双向同步减持的操作形成了有效对冲,由此可见,规模最大的机构账户在保持偏多态度的情况下,整体仍然相对克制,并没有在标准合约和微型合约中做出一致的同步调仓。

资管机构账户多头头寸自 41 张下降至 30 张,空头头寸自 1314 张上升至 1379 张,资管机构在微型合约中又一次进行了净空调仓,与标准合约中激进的净多调仓相悖,属于常规风险对冲处理。

杠杆基金多头头寸自 12879 下降至 12299,空头头寸自 15343 下降至 14763,杠杆基金在微型合约中进行了多空双向同步减持,而多空持仓比保持不变,在标准合约态度较为模糊的环境下,这类账户在微型合约中同样没有透露出清晰的方向判断信号。

大户多头头寸自 4869 下降至 4439,空头头寸自 1517 下降至 1338,大户账户在微型合约中进行了多空双向同步减持,这类账户在微型合约中的多空持仓比同样与上一统计周期持平,在标准合约中表达出清晰看空态度的情况下,微型合约这样的保守调仓不影响这类账户偏空的判断。

散户多头头寸自 2302 上升至 2758,空头头寸自 1526 下降至 1392,散户在微型合约中进行了净多调仓,与标准合约调仓方向相反,进一步凸显了散户在短线的纠结状况。

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