【重磅解读】BTC诱多嫌疑或被验证,与ETH价格率先背离

火币资讯Опубліковано о 2022-09-13Востаннє оновлено о 2022-09-14

Анотація

反弹最大风险,来自BTC和ETH的背离表现,美联储加息前的不确定性较大。

1、BTC释放最强交易量

BTC价格从调整中恢复反弹以后,价格轻松达到布林线中轨以上,从18799美元反弹到22400美元附近,区间涨幅可达19.2%。从成交量的表现来看,本次7个交易日内的放量效果明显好于过去2个月的表现,更是过去1年中最大的平均交易量表现。因此,在9月22日美联储加息的前一周,BTC正在表现出更为强劲的反弹预期。近期BTC涨幅空间更多取决于交易量能够达到的位置。整体市场以放量反弹来减轻抛售压力,中短期抛压变化对行情影响非常重要。

2、BTC中短期投资者获利出逃

BTC的中短期投资者的获利出逃表明,投资者正迎来减仓交易机会。SOPR指标从9月9日开始维持在0以上运行,说明投资者整体获利交易BTC期间,交易性质为获利出逃。接下来交易日中,随着BTC反弹空间增加,预期获利交易依然会主导整体市场。因此,在判断市场走向的时候,SOPR指标能够达到的高达越高,提示的短线抛压会更大。参考过去一年中SOPR指标能够达到的高达,该指标在1.05到1.1的区间时候,能够有效检验卖点有效。

3、 BTC未确认亏损显著下降

随着反弹走势的出现,BTC的未确认亏损规模出现了非常明显的下降,数值上从近期9月6日的数值高位0.507快速下降到了0.353附近,亏损规模下降了15.4个百分点。这表明,BTC近一周的反弹走势出现以后,有相当大规模的亏损盘已经消失,意味着抛售压力也在快速下降。

绝对数值上,9月12日的未确认亏损占比依然可达35.5%,数值相对过去2年依然处在高位运行。因此,BTC仍然处在消化抛售压力的解读,对于反弹中的压力位可进一步关注。

4、ETH价格小幅反弹

随着ETH维持震荡走势,近期整体涨幅方面并未超预期,可见ETH价格走势与BTC呈现出某种背离倾向,预示着整体市场的强势或不会持续太久。成交量方面,ETH日K线级别的成交量仍然处在收缩态势中,因此涨幅方面并不理想。不过考虑到前期ETH涨幅空间较大,因此累计涨幅方面的优势仍然显著。

5、ETH转移数量回升

近期ETH反弹期间,转移的ETH数量小幅回升,但是并未超过前期峰值。从反弹强度来看,9月6日达到了377.3万,低于7月21日的485.7万枚ETH,同时更低于5月12日和6月13日的815.6万枚和756.9万枚ETH。因此,ETH价格仍然处在了平稳运行阶段。投资者的交易热情未变,涨幅预期并未加强。

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